2026年2月

Fukushima Economics Workshop 2025のお知らせ（2026/2/3）

荒 知宏准教授からのお知らせです。

下記のとおり、近代経済セミナーとの共催で、「Fukushima Economics Workshop 2025」を実施いたします。事前の参加申込みは不要ですので、興味のあるセッションに自由にお越しください。詳しいプログラム内容は以下の通りです（プログラムでは、報告者の敬称を省略させていただいております）。なお、研究報告はすべて英語で行われます。

日時：2026年2月21日（土）　12:45-17:30
場所：経済経営学類棟（キャンパスマップの５の建物）６階609合同研究室

12:45-13:00　

Opening Remarks

13:00−13:45

Haruka Takayama (University at Albany, State University of New York)

"Air Connectivity and International Travel: Evidence from Cross-border Card Payments"

(with Chun-Yu Ho, Tingting Peng, and Li Xu)

Abstract: Many countries seek to attract foreign travelers by improving air connectivity. How do direct flight connections affect international visitors' spending? We address this question using a novel dataset on card payments made by Chinese travelers via point-of-sale (POS) terminals. Our identification strategy exploits overseas improvements in air transportation capacityーarising from infrastructure developments, policy changes, and historical eventsーwhich we treat as exogenous supply shocks to flight frequency. Our IV estimates indicate that a 1% increase in the weekly frequency of direct flights leads to a 1.2% increase in cross-border card transaction value. While improving air connectivity promotes international travel, we find that negative shocks to consumer preferences for destination countries, such as boycotts, diminish the positive impact of air connectivity.

13:45−14:30

Motoaki Takahashi (Osaka University)

“Trade and the Spatial Distribution of Unemployment”

Abstract: I develop a model of involuntary unemployment in multiple geographic locations. The model merges a quantitative general equilibrium model of the spatial economy and the efficiency-wage model (Shapiro and Stiglitz, 1984). I quantify the model for 27 countries and the 50 US states and compute a counterfactual of a 3 percent increase in China’s productivity. The model predicts that real wages increase in all the US states, unemployment increases in 44 states, and the overall US welfare increases. Counterfactual results highlight heterogeneous effects of foreign shocks on unemployment and real wages across the US states.

14:30−14:45

Break

14:45−15:30

Hirofumi Okoshi (Okayama University)

“Reallocating Taxing Rights and Online Trade: Pillar One as a partial formula apportionment”

(with Hiroshi Mukunoki and Dirk Schindler)

Abstract: To target the problem of “homeless profits” that digital firms earn in countries without a physical presence, the Pillar One proposal by the OECD aims to reallocate taxing rights to market countries based on the sales revenues of in-scope firms. This study theoretically investigates the implications of Pillar One by considering a global firm that conducts all its real activities in a tax haven and competes via prices in e-commerce with local firms in market countries. Our model identifies two core effects. First, all in-scope firms manipulate their routine profit threshold by increasing their total turnover. This reduces the newly reallocated tax base and crowds out the taxable profits of the local competitors. Second, when corporate tax rates differ across market countries, there is an incentive toward sales shifting, whereby the global firm increases prices in the high-tax country and books larger sales and taxable profits in the low-tax country. Thus, the high-tax country suffers from lower tax revenue and greater market inefficiency, all else being equal.

15:30−16:15

Tomohiro Ara (Fukushima University)

“Two-Way Complementarity: Measurements and Welfare Implications”

(with Tengyu Zhao)

Abstract: Firms’ export and import participation are strongly correlated, a pattern known as two-way complementarity. In this paper, we refine its concept, develop empirical measures, identify its micro-foundations, and explore associated welfare implications. We show that two-way complementarity arises naturally from the structure of trade costs and derive an ACR-style formula for gains from trade that explicitly incorporates this channel. Two-way complementarity raises aggregate trade elasticities, implying smaller inferred welfare gains for a given decline in domestic trade shares following a trade reform. Using Chinese micro data, we document empirical support for the model predictions and find that failing to account for two-way complementarity overstates China’s gains from WTO accession by around 40%.

16:15−16:30

Break

16:30−17:15

Laixun Zhao (Kobe University)

“Seizing Policy Opportunities: How Confucian Culture Promotes Firm Exports”
(with Tong Fu)

Abstract: Employing geographic information of Confucianism heritages in China and using a regression discontinuity (RD) design, we find that Confucian culture (CC) causally promotes firm-level exports, by inducing firms to take advantage of the government's export tax rebate. We also show that CC has no promotional effect on domestic sales and other tax support outside the policy. These findings imply that CC could help firms benefit by seizing policy opportunities.

17:15-17:30　Concluding Remarks

※本ワークショップはJSPS科研費23K01395、24K00255の助成を受けています。

吉田樹ゼミ・佐藤英司ゼミ 卒業論文合同報告会を開催しました

吉田樹ゼミ・佐藤英司ゼミによる卒業論文合同報告会を開催しました。今回で11回目となる本発表会では、卒業研究として各自が取り組んできた成果を、他者に伝わるよう整理・説明します。ゼミ間での共有と相互の学びを通じて、教育・研究のさらなる向上を図ることを目的としています。

                                          【テ－マ】

                                         ・足利市におけるレンタサイクル利用者の回遊行動に関する研究  －潜在的要因に着目して－                                                                       

                                         ・オンデマンド交通と公共ライドシェアの導入適性に関する研究  －東北・北関東地方のケ－ススタディ－

                                         ・群馬県における若年層の人口移動 －栃木県との比較研究－

                                         ・EC市場拡大に伴う自動車輸送需要とトラックドライバ －賃金への影響

                                         ・人口流出の抑制に対する最低賃金と推し活の効果 －都道府県パネルデ－タを用いた空間固定効果モデル推定－

                                         ・イオンモ－ルと道の駅の立地および機能特性の比較 －山形県を対象としたケ－ススタディ－

                                         ・治水事業が地価に与える影響 －群馬県・八ッ場ダム流域の治水事業を対象とした差の差分析－

                                         ・MaaSが地域社会に定着するための要件 －KANSAI MaaSを中心とした分析－

                                         ・地方都市市街地におけるオンデマンド交通の導入意義と課題 －福島県会津若松市を事例として－

                                         ・日本における砂糖税の導入が消費行動および社会的純便益に及ぼす影響 －飲料市場の需要推定と導入シミュレ－ションによる定量的評価－

                                         ・高校時代の学習経験が若者の地域愛着に及ぼす影響 －商業科出身者と他学科出身者の比較を通して－

                                         ・災害による長期運休が鉄道利用者の行動に与える影響と運転再開後の利用回復要因 －阿武隈急行線を事例として－

                                         ・公営火葬場における無料料金設定の決定要因 －火葬場単独運営自治体に着目して－

                                         ・プロ野球におけるFA権取得が与える選手年俸への影響 －パネルデ－タを活用した統計的分析－

                                         ・「おでかけツア－」が高齢者の外出に与える影響 －定額タクシ－「ヤマグチくん」を例に－

                                         ・新幹線駅がもたらす都市構造の変化－市街地の地価動態に着目して－

                                         ・地域鉄道におけるキャッシュレス決済導入の効果と課題に関する考察