Step 2: Evaluate

Evaluate suitability of project site, species and/or infrastructure to future air and water temperature patterns and determine impact

Explain your project's suitability to future temperatures referring to data sources and local knowedge

• Does future temperature look different than present?

• Will the amount of change projected affect your project site, species, or infrastructure?

• How may water quality be affected (pH, dissolved oxygen, temperature, turbidity, salinity contaminants, nutrients, sedimentation)

• Will temperature change affect crucial functions? (e.g., evapotranspiration)?

• Will invasive species to benefit from new conditions?

To answer these questions, use regional temperature projections.

Evaluate local sea level rise projections relevant to project area and determine impact

Explain how sea level rise may affect your project

• Does future sea level look different than present?

• Will the amount of change projected affect your project site, species, or infrastructure?

• Will it affect slope stability or coastal erosion?

To answer these questions, use regional sea level rise projections for 2100 (or other date relevant for the project) and local knowledge related to coastal flooding.

Map these sea level rise projections for your project area (inclusive of its access corridors, key infrastructure) in relation to projected future coastal flood zones and frequently flooded areas (both episodic and chronic) based on the sea level rise projections. You can use a sea level rise viewer or your own GIS. If options exist, use high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (e.g., RCP8.5 or similar), likely or 50% assessed probability.

Evaluate project suitability for future precipitation patterns and determine imapct

Explain your project's suitability to future precipitation patterns referring to data sources and local knowledge

• Does future precipitation (annual or seasonal) look different than present? Is timing and intensity of precipitation projected to change? Will there be a change from snow to rain?

• Will the amount of change projected diminish project benefits, negatively impact the ability to meet project goals, negatively affect design integrity, or otherwise affect the project?

• Will there be flooding or other peak flow challenges?

• Will there be slope instability or erosion?

• Will water control or stormwater management design still function?

• Will needed utility (water, sewer, power, broadband) services be available during flooding?

• Will there be unacceptable low flow, or prolonged seasonal, annual or multi-year drought?

• Will invasive species benefit from new conditions?

• How may water quality be affected (pH, dissolved oxygen, temperature, turbidity, salinity contaminants, nutrients, sedimentation)?

To answer these questions, use regional precipitation, stream flow, and flood projections

Evaluate project vulnerability to wildfire and determine impact

Explain your project may be affected by or affect wildfire

• Will long-term temperature and precipitation trends cause shifts in vegetation and habitats affecting your project’s vulnerability to wildfire or the ability to use land management techniques that rely on fire (e.g., prescribed burn)?

• Will needed utility (water, sewer, power, broadband) services be available during fire, under fire prevention measures (planned power outages), and/or fire response measures (fuel breaks, water harvest)?

To answer these questions, map project area and its access corridors against Wildfire Hazard Areas or other local wildfire risk mapping tools.

Evaluate project vulnerability to changes in ecological function (e.g., shifts in phenology, range, composition, connectivity, fitness)

Explain how future conditions could affect the ecological function of the project and what actions will be taken to enhance ecological function and project success. When answering, consider how this may interact with other aspects of climate change you are evaluating.

For marine projects: In addition to previously mentioned impacts, how might ocean acidification affect ecological function

Evaluate project contribution to greenhouse gas emissions (emissions and sequestration)

Explain your project's contribution (during implementation and maintenance) to greenhouse gas emissions and carbon sequestration.

• Does the project require use of an energy source (e.g., transportation, infrastructure)?

• Will this result in greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel use?

• Could there be greenhouse gas emissions from land use change or fire?

• Could the affordability or availability of utilities (water, sewer, power) change given changing carbon policies and/or extreme events (fire, flood, wind)?

• Is carbon sequestration a consideration for your project (If so, discuss potential risks to permanence, leakage, additionality)