Calvin Rose, Erin Griesenauer

Within ecology, given the rise in sea levels and the subsequent intrusion of salt water, it is important to see how mangroves respond to these environmental changes and stressors. Invasive species can also encroach on natural mangrove habitats causing them to behave irregularly. After the introduction of Brazilian Peppertrees (BP) into Florida in the 1950s, the mangrove population has suffered critical losses. So far there has not been a publicly available computer model to try and represent mangrove populations, with or without invasive species like the Brazilian Peppertree. This project seeks to create models that accurately represents mangrove population dynamics with the possibility of rule changes for mangroves in different regions and climates. The research project culminated in two python based 2D cellular automata that took into account salinity, survivability, birth rates, aging, storm events, and species interaction. These parameters can be modified to emulate mangroves in different regions and climates, changing the resulting behavior of the species in the model. One model simulates mangrove dynamics in an island setting while the other simulates dynamics for a coastline ecosystem. This project has potential for new editions to the original code, improving the accuracy of the model. Improvements could include fluctuating species’ survival, growth, and chance of death based on age or salt table changes due to hurricanes. With python, these additions can add a new layer of complexity to more accurately model how real mangroves behave in the wild.