With the matchup for Super Bowl 55 now decided and a long 2 weeks away, the attention of the league will now turn to the annual awards to be given out at the NFL Honors the night before the Super Bowl. Many of the awards are already a forgone conclusion: Aaron Rodgers will win the Most Valuable Player award and Alex Smith will win the Comeback Player of the Year award. The offensive and defensive Player of the Year awards will most likely go to Derrick Henry and T.J. Watt respectively, and the Defensive Rookie of the Year will almost certainly be Chase Young. The only award left to debate about is the Offensive Rookie of the Year, which has come down to 2 impressive men named Justin.
Justin Jefferson was selected by the Vikings in the first round of the draft and excelled alongside Adam Thielen as a replacement for Stefon Diggs, who earned 1st team all-pro honors this season. Although it took him a few weeks to settle in, he caught fire towards the end of the season, setting the rookie record for receiving yards and separating himself as the clear best receiver in one of the deepest rookie classes in recent history. He earned Pro Bowl and 2nd team all-pro honors. The Vikings finished 7-9 and missed the playoffs.
Justin Herbert was selected by the Chargers in the first round of the draft as well, but was expected to sit behind Tyrod Taylor this season. When Taylor’s lung was punctured 45 seconds before kickoff of the Chargers week 2 matchup against the Chiefs, Herbert stepped in and performed admirably, losing in overtime. From there, the rookie took 3 more close losses, leading by 17 over the Buccaneers and missing a game-winning field goal against the Saints. After getting his first win, Herbert and the Chargers still managed to choke a couple more games before finding a groove towards the end of the season, ending the season with 4 straight wins including 2 game-winning drives. By the end of the season, Herbert set the rookie record for passing touchdowns, total touchdowns, completions, 300-yard games, and multiple-touchdown games. The Chargers also finished 7-9 and missed the playoffs.
The argument for Jefferson is that he was a top 10 receiver while Herbert was not a top 10 quarterback, which I disagree with. Although Jefferson was probably a top 10 receiver, Herbert was 6th in passing yards and 10th in touchdowns, making him at least a top 12 quarterback even for those who don’t believe that those stats matter. The main reason that Herbert deserves the award is because playing quarterback as rookie is much more difficult than playing receiver as a rookie, especially during a pandemic and dealing with a shortened preseason. Herbert had no expectation of playing, with professional football analysts suggesting that he switch positions and play tight end. He also dealt with the worst offensive line in the NFL according to PFF. Jefferson, on the other hand, had another elite receiver in Adam Theilen lined up across the field from him taking some of the load of dealing with heavier coverage. Herbert dealt with far more adversity than Jefferson and performed at an elite level at the most difficult position in football.
Although Jefferson is an absolute stud and deserves recognition for his season, Herbert is clearly deserving of the title of Offensive Rookie of the Year.