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Picks of the Day 11/15/24

Florida -5.5 (-110)

This is a good look as the Florida Gators are off to an undefeated 3-0 start this season. Their offense has been strong, averaging 88.3 points per game, but they struggle with three-point shooting, hitting just 26% from beyond the arc. Defensively, they allow 68.3 points per game, ranking 155th. Florida is coming off an 86-62 win over Grambling State, where they dominated on the glass with a 45-21 rebounding advantage. Walter Clayton leads the offense with 16.7 points and 4.3 assists, while Will Richard adds 16 points and 5 rebounds. Florida will look to extend their perfect record tonight against Florida State, and with their strong inside game and depth, they should be able to cover the -5.5 point spread. The Gators' ability to dominate the boards and score efficiently inside should help them control the game, even if their outside shooting remains a weakness. With a solid all-around performance, Florida is in a good position to secure a comfortable win.

Michigan -3.5 (-176)

Michigan is well-equipped to cover the -3.5 point spread tonight against TCU. The Wolverines boast an efficient offense, averaging 85.5 points per game and ranking 10th in the nation in field goal percentage at 55.3%. Their strong shooting from beyond the arc (39.2%) will give them a clear advantage over TCU, especially as the Wolverines look to bounce back after a tough loss to Wake Forest. Defensively, Michigan has been solid, allowing just 62.5 points per game, and their ability to contain opposing offenses should help them limit TCU’s scoring. With Tre Donaldson leading the team in scoring (13 PPG) and assists (5.5 APG), and LJ Cason adding 12 points per game, Michigan has the depth and offensive firepower to cover the spread. Their balance and efficiency on both ends of the floor make them well-positioned to secure a win tonight.

Alabama ML (-162)

Alabama is the favorite in a matchup against a strong Purdue team; their high-powered offense and strong defense should carry them to a win. Mark Sears has picked up right where he left off averaging 18 and 3 to start the year, and in a competetive game against Purdue, should show up to play. Purdue has still looked strong with even departure of Zach Edey, with junior forward, Trey Kauffman-Renn, picking up the pace in the front court, averaging 15.3 ppg and 5.7 rpg. However, Bama should pick up the win with their stacked roster.

North Carolina -24.5 (-114)

North Carolina is primed to cover the hefty 24.5-point spread against American University tonight. With RJ Davis averaging 20 PPG and Seth Trimble averaging 17 PPG, they have been leading the charge, and should have no trouble putting up big numbers against an overmatched American team. UNC has also been strong on the boards, grabbing 39 rebounds per game, which should help them control the pace and dominate inside. Defensively, despite allowing 84 points per game, they’ve been effective at forcing tough shots, and American’s offense is unlikely to keep up with the Tar Heels' firepower. Given their offensive depth and rebounding advantage, North Carolina should easily cover the 24.5-point spread.

Memphis -12.5 (-118)

The Memphis Tigers have started the season strong with a perfect 2-0 record, tying for 4th place in the American Athletic Conference. They are also 2-0 against the spread, with a 1-0 mark at home. Offensively, Memphis is averaging 81.5 points per game, shooting 48.7% from the field and 37.8% from beyond the arc. Defensively, they've allowed 74.5 points per game. In their most recent outing, Memphis secured an 80-74 win at UNLV, covering the spread and hitting the under on the total. PJ Haggerty led the way with 29 points, 3 rebounds, and 3 assists, and is currently averaging 27 points per game, while Colby Rogers contributes 13 points and 4 rebounds.

Player to watch of the week 11/10/24

Egor Demin, (G) BYU

BYU guard Egor Demin has seen his stock soar early this season. A 6-foot-8 guard-forward, Demin entered the season as a jumbo creator, and he's lived up to that, averaging 19 points and nine assists on 63% shooting. In a blowout win over Queens, Demin scored 14 points on 6-of-9 shooting, added five assists, two steals, and committed just three turnovers in 27 minutes. He continued his solid shooting, hitting 2-of-4 from beyond the arc, maintaining his 50% 3-point shooting on the season. While still developing his long-range consistency, Demin's shooting has opened up his driving and playmaking, showcasing his growing versatility. As he faces tougher competition, Demin has the potential to rise into a top-tier prospect, possibly moving ahead of some longer-term talents if his strong play continues.

2024 CBB Season Preview

The 2024 men's college basketball season is set to be one of dramatic change, filled with new faces, coaching shifts, and the ripple effects of conference realignment that are reshaping the entire landscape of the sport. If one word sums up the season, it’s mileage. Schools like UCLA and Oregon, now navigating the complexities of cross-country conference play, will be logging more travel miles than ever before. Coaches are already adjusting to this new reality—Dana Altman of Oregon has even sought advice from NBA and NFL teams about managing time-zone shifts, while Mick Cronin of UCLA has emphasized the importance of comfortable charter flights to minimize the toll on his players. This season, travel is not just a logistical hurdle; it’s a defining feature of the sport's evolution.

At the heart of the season’s excitement is Duke, where freshman Cooper Flagg, widely regarded as the No. 1 pick for the 2025 NBA Draft, has generated the kind of buzz not seen since Zion Williamson's single season in 2018-19. Flagg’s arrival has turned Durham into a must-watch destination for fans and celebrities alike, with expectations sky-high for a team packed with talent. With Flagg leading a top-tier freshman class and a mix of solid transfers, Jon Scheyer’s squad is poised to challenge for the national title, but the real question is whether Scheyer can mesh all that raw talent into a championship-caliber unit.

The season is also marked by significant coaching changes that have brought fresh energy to the sidelines. John Calipari’s move from Kentucky to Arkansas is one of the biggest storylines. After 14 years and a national title in Lexington, Calipari is starting over in Fayetteville, hoping to prove he can win without the iconic support of Kentucky’s Big Blue Nation. His new team, led by a top-10 recruiting class and a strong transfer portal haul, will be one to watch. At Purdue, Matt Painter faces the challenge of rebuilding after the loss of the dominant Zach Edey, but he still has a talented roster, including veterans like Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer, who are ready to lead. Over at Alabama, after a historic Final Four appearance, Nate Oats has positioned the Crimson Tide as legitimate national title contenders, with standout guard Jahvon Quinerly leading the way.

A number of programs entering the season with high hopes are being dubbed "mystery teams" that could surprise in March. Rutgers is one of the most intriguing, as it brings in top-tier freshmen Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper, both projected as potential top-three picks in the 2025 NBA Draft. With Steve Pikiell’s defensive-first approach and a roster bolstered by transfers, Rutgers has the potential to go much further than ever before—perhaps even making its first Final Four appearance in nearly 50 years. Meanwhile, Memphis, despite some off-court drama and coaching staff shakeups, is another program to keep an eye on. Penny Hardaway’s Tigers are rebuilding, but with only one returning player, the success of this new-look team could be a defining story of the season.

As the transfer portal continues to reshape college basketball, many teams are leaning on veteran players who have made the jump from smaller programs. Players like Clifford Omoruyi (from Rutgers to Alabama) and AJ Storr (from Wisconsin to Kansas) are expected to make an immediate impact, furthering the trend of teams constructed with a mix of freshmen and experienced transfers. This season, more than ever, the line between the traditional powerhouses and upstart programs is blurring.

While the freshman class will certainly garner the most attention, many of the season’s top players are upperclassmen. Creighton’s Ryan Kalkbrenner, a three-time Big East Defensive Player of the Year, is primed to make a serious push for the Wooden Award, especially with more offensive opportunities available now that key players like Baylor Scheierman and Trey Alexander have moved on. At Houston, J’Wan Roberts, despite not being recognized on many preseason All-America lists, has been one of the best two-way players in the country over the past few years and is poised for a breakout season as a key piece of the Cougars' title hopes.

With so many talented teams and star players, the 2024-25 season is shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable in recent memory. Whether it’s the emergence of fresh faces like Bailey and Harper at Rutgers or the veteran leadership of players like Kalkbrenner and Roberts, the mix of old and new talent promises to keep fans on the edge of their seats. This season, the theme of change will dominate—on the court, in the coaching ranks, and even in the way teams are built. As the season unfolds, expect to see these storylines converge into what should be an exciting and unpredictable march to the NCAA Tournament.

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Mission

Writing about betting in college basketball brings me joy because it’s like mixing a high-stakes poker game with a math competition—and I’m here for it. The adrenaline of analyzing games, players, and matchups is only made more thrilling by the fact that you can hide behind spreadsheets. There's something ridiculously satisfying about spotting that one obscure stat, like a team’s uncanny ability to shoot free throws at exactly 76.4% on Tuesdays, and knowing I’m about to use it to make the perfect bet. It’s like being a detective in a sports drama, where every player’s shooting percentage is a clue, and every oddsmaker is a suspect. The deeper I dig, the more I uncover, until I feel like I’m one statistic away from a Nobel Prize in Predictive Sports. When it all clicks and I share those insights with others? It’s like winning a game and doing a victory dance in front of an admiring crowd of... well, probably just my dog named Kemba Walker.

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