Causes of Conflict

We can identify three basic causes of conflict in the 21st century: (1) territory, (2) resources, and (3) politics, ideology, culture, and religion.

Most conflicts arise as a result of some mix of these factors and can be aggravated by a variety of other factors, including population demographics, resource depletion, technology, political ambition, sociocultural differences, misunderstandings, misperceptions, miscommunications, nationalism, underdevelopment, poor governance, and perhaps, in the 21st century, climate change. Conflicts can also, of course, be mitigated by factors such as diplomacy, peacekeeping, confidence building, technology, and, eventually, conflict resolution measures.

For example, the complex conflict in Darfur, Sudan, was caused by a combination of factors. Underlying causes were territorial and ideological, with southern rebels and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement/Army fighting for independence from 1963—1972 and 1983—2004 before eventual statehood for South Sudan. Resource (specifically energy) conflict was also a contributing factor, aggravated in large part by climate change and cultural differences that were themselves exacerbated by the role of identity in uprisings and militia activity; more specifically, by drought and the ideology of Arab supremacy. Some have even called the Darfur conflict the world’s first “climate change war.”

The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is another complex and long-standing conflict that is basically a territorial dispute but with underlying causes that include clashes over religion, ethnicity, culture, and access to natural resources such as water or arable land. The 1948 War and the 1967 Six Day War shaped Israel’s legal territory, however Palestinian claims over the West Bank and Gaza Strip (including Jerusalem) have been continually challenged, specifically by the Israeli state. The U.N. has continued to condemn Israeli settlements in the disputed territory and in late 2012, the General Assembly granted Palestine non-member state status.

Island disputes in the East China and South China Seas between China and some of its neighbors are ostensibly territorial in nature, but why risk the possibility of war over a few outcroppings of barren rock? The underlying cause of the conflicts may be China’s long-term quest for energy resources; in this case, potentially huge oil and gas deposits under the seabed.

Another source of conflict, though one that doesn’t fit neatly with our three basic causes, is transnational organized crime. The drug war in Mexico alone has resulted in more than 50,000 deaths since 2006, and an estimated 12 to 25 million people in the world today are victims of human trafficking and trapped in various degrees of servitude.