October 2021

The Q4 Opportunity

This past month we saw nearly a 10 percent increase in overall on-market property inventory in Manhattan. As we noted in last month’s report, we experienced slower buyer activity the latter half of the summer, with the hope and prediction of an increase of new properties to market after Labor Day. We have been bracing for a strong fall market, when historically sellers who waited through the summer capitalize on like-minded buyers who now suit up and get in the game. The increase this month to around 8,000 actively on market did not bring us back to early summer levels.

Last October we saw a swell of nearly 11,000 on market properties in Manhattan and nearly half the amount in contract for sale as we have today. Then, like now, we were facing socio-political issues that challenged some market confidence. But unlike then, after experiencing a half a year of the pandemic and New York City’s validity being poked at by critics, our real estate market has now seen a year of confidence, and a strong pattern of New Yorkers investing in the city.

We have been in discussion with more sellers this past month to bring properties to market in October, but we don’t foresee listing activity outpacing buyer activity across most sectors in Manhattan and Brooklyn. That could be good news for sellers.

For property owners who are considering selling, at the least have a discussion with your agent about options you might have – both for a sale as well as inventory possibilities for a purchase, if trading up or trading down is your objective. You owe yourself the advantage of being educated about your specific market sector. The city is a patchwork of various markets and consumer nuances.

Now is also a good time to capitalize on timing, before we hit the traditionally slower holiday season, ushered in by Thanksgiving less than two months away. Move quickly to prep your property, work collaboratively with your agent – we’ve all been spending considerably more time in our homes than ever before, potentially dimming our awareness of drawbacks that others might notice. Your agent can point out the improvements and maintenance tasks that might need to be done to be in better form.

Likewise, you may need to focus on removal of some things you accumulated in your home this past year and a half as your space had to perform in ways it never had to before as a live and work environment. Get educated on the consumer activity that’s taking place within your parameters, and understand the pricing of comparable properties that is effective and pricing that is failing. Price right now, don’t be over-zealous and risk lingering into the new year. Now’s a good time to advantage of the opportunity to stand out amongst properties that haven’t traded over the summer.

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The Numbers

Manhattan Market Activity

Highlighting our market's past 30 days.

September 2021

Fall Goals

Summer never seems to last long enough. Despite the ongoing COVID challenges and more recently variant concerns, this summer was a particularly relished one for a lot of us, after last summer’s lockdown. In our report last month, we discussed the slower buyer activity that we were seeing in the market in July in general, though of course certain property sectors were busier than others. There are plenty of buyers, but many moved their search to a passive mode, lured by summer fun or fatigued from the hotly competitive spring market. August saw more decrease in property inventory and a decrease in the number of properties currently in contract.

With the Labor Day holiday weekend coming up, we anticipate a busy week around the corner. Kids go back class, pools close up, summer Fridays shut down, summer shares and rentals are done and the back-to-school mentality that we’ve been programmed for all our lives kicks in. Fall is time to get things done. And what happens in September in our New York City real estate market generally doesn’t show the results in mainstream media until the holiday season or after the new year given the length of time to close.

If you’ve been considering buying, here are some current incentives to consider acting on your goal now:

New inventory. Not only will you be exposed to the inventory that has been on the market and hasn’t moved, but you’ll have fresh picks to choose from. And in many instances, the inventory that hasn’t moved isn’t the fault of the inventory itself. People were doing all the things they weren’t doing last summer – travel, gatherings, visiting friends and family. We predict a good season to pick good product.

Sellers also have goals. There are sellers out there who were testing the spring market at aspirational prices. They prepped their homes for showings throughout the summer often in a perpetual state of preparedness without the level of showing requests they had hoped for. Then they adjusted their schedules to accommodate, often while working from home, and they now want to take advantage of the fall market. They also have goals to attain. Some may be more flexible than others, but nearly all want to get the job done.

Timing. Unless you’re buying all cash, you have about a 90-day horizon from accepted offer to the closing table and walking out with keys. In other words, now’s the time to act if you want your purchase done near or shortly after the new year.

Interest rates. Sentiment isn’t that rates are going to go down in the new year. If that’s the case, the clock is ticking on your purchasing power. This is also motivating to sellers. As rates rise, the purchasing power of their buyer pool decreases.

Boards are back. We’ve seen, as is often the case, several transactions face long delays over the summer months as coop boards take extended periods between meetings and less ad hoc decision making, unless vital to the coop. Often purchase applications don’t make the top of the list. Like school, coop boards that weren’t around are back in session.

Rents are rising. The city’s rental market bounced back. Wide-spread concessions, no-fee transactions and negotiated reductions are no longer the norm. New York City ascended to the hottest and most expensive rental market in the country last month. That may be influential if you’re renting and considering a new lease or that new purchase.

There’s plenty of short term reasons now to act on your purchasing goal to take advantage of the long term opportunities that the New York City market offers. Like our real estate market, the advantages may require resilience.

We wish you a great remainder to your summer, and enjoyable Labor Day holiday!

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The Numbers

Manhattan Market Activity

Highlighting our market's past 30 days.