The U.S. - India Political and Strategic Landscape and its Impact

Speakers: Dr. Satu Limaye, Amb. Arun Singh, Dr. C Raja Mohan, Ms. Shibani Mehta and        Dr. K.P Vijyalakshmi

Date: 18 January, 2024

Time: 6:30pm p.m.–8:15 p.m.

Venue: Zoom (Virtual) 

Key Takeaways

The Centre for East Asian Studies (CEAS), Christ University, in collaboration with George Washington University, held the first virtual meeting of the project on “Partners in Progress: How Does the U.S.-India Strategic Partnership Matter?” on January 18, 2024.

The purpose of the first virtual meeting was twofold. Firstly, it marked the inauguration of the project and the official launch of the "US-India Cooperation Circle," inaugurated by Dr. Fr. Viju, Pro Vice Chancellor, Christ University. In this segment, Mr. Christopher W. Hodges, U.S. Consul General, Chennai, delivered a keynote address, and Dr. Alyss Ayres, Dean of the Elliott School of International Affairs at GWU, also addressed the gathering. The speakers emphasized the significance of the U.S.-India strategic partnership.

The second segment of the meeting featured a panel discussion titled "The U.S.-India Political and Strategic Landscape and its Impact." The primary objective of this session was to provide a comprehensive understanding of the broad strategic and political landscape affecting both India and the U.S., along with its implications for the developing strategic partnership. The meeting aimed to engage an intellectual discourse geared toward developing an ecosystem of cooperation potential between the two democracies (India and the US) through discussions, questions, and suggestions that experts believe should be addressed.  

The session commenced with a warm welcome address from Dr. Manoharan N., Director of the Centre for East Asian Studies (CEAS), followed by Dr. Deepa Ollapally chairing the panel discussion.

The first speaker, Dr. Satu Limaye, discussed the India-U.S. strategic partnership within the current political and strategic landscape. He provided insights into the opportunities and challenges for India from a broader U.S. perspective.

Dr. Limaye emphasized that current India-U.S. relations exhibit more favorable conditions than the past two decades. He outlined four key opportunities for India in its relationship with the U.S.:

Firstly, in this age of ongoing and intricate strategic rivalry—as shown by the situation in Gaza and Ukraine as well as the network threats presented by China's growing alliance with other powers like Russia, Iran, and North Korea—a major boon for India-U.S. relations is their alignment in resisting China in the Indo-Pacific area. While the U.S. and India may not agree on every aspect, they can unite on the primacy of addressing China's influence in the region.

Secondly, with U.S. primacy and leadership facing increased challenges and debates globally, there is an opportunity for India to collaborate with the U.S. in integrating allies and potential partners. This collaboration can contribute to sustaining and achieving American primacy, leadership, efficiency, and capabilities in a contested global system, providing India with more opportunities to work with a U.S. that is actively engaged.

Thirdly, India can establish productive ties with the U.S. and other countries, including the QUAD, on various fronts such as minerals, the supply chain, chips, semiconductors, and other bilateral arrangements. 

Lastly, geographical widening and enhanced connectivity beyond the Indo-Pacific have led to India's robust partnerships with European allies being viewed in a more holistic and broader manner.

The speaker also highlighted challenges in strategic convergences, as India's focus on various criteria such as QUAD, G20, and world peace poses a challenge to cover comprehensively. Dr. Limaye suggests prioritizing three convergences: increasing cooperation in security interests like maritime security, industrial and defense elements, and counter-terrorism.

To operationalize strategic convergence, Dr. Limaye proposed several toolsets:

• Jointly building partnerships with third-world countries, such as Vietnam and the Philippines.

• Aligning approaches in the Indo-Pacific region closely, recognizing that many issues ultimately revolve around China.

• Aligning with multilateralism arrangements, particularly within ASEAN.

The second speaker, providing the Indian perspective, Ambassador Arun Singh, discussed his personal views on the benefits and opportunities of the strategic partnership for India.

Firstly, Ambassador Singh highlighted the robust trade relations between India and the U.S., emphasizing the U.S. as India's largest trading partner. The trade balance, favoring India, is a crucial factor for India's economic growth, given its overall deficit

Secondly, the global economic shifts, with the U.S. moving away from untrammeled globalization, present a new opportunity for India to engage with the U.S. and participate actively in reshaping supply chains and ensuring secure and reliable production. 

Thirdly, Ambassador Singh outlined significant progress in defense collaborations, noting India's transition from minimal defense purchases from the U.S. to contracts exceeding $20 billion. Foundational agreements, including the logistics support agreement and communication, compatibility, and security,   were highlighted as crucial in facilitating cooperation and information sharing.

Fourth, on the advancements in defense technology, despite past challenges in defense technology partnerships, the presentation showcased recent advancements. Notably, the U.S. authorization of transfer production technology for specific engines was highlighted as unprecedented. Initiatives like the Intersex program and the Critical and Emerging Technologies initiative were mentioned to underscore growing collaboration in defense technologies.

Fifth, Amb Singh discussed the opportunities in emerging technologies and the joint initiative cooperation in crucial areas such as artificial intelligence, quantum computing, cyber, 6G, biotech, semiconductors, space, and defense, aligning with the national security interests of both countries.

Lastly, he covered the potential challenges and future outlook of high-level technology transfers and emphasized the importance of new mechanisms, including the strategic trade dialogue, in overcoming these challenges. He also highlighted the need for both countries to navigate differences in their relationships with other nations.

The third speaker, Ms. Shibani Mehta, shared her perspectives on how to enhance the partnership and outlined the potential benefits that could be derived from a U.S.-India strategic partnership.

In her insightful address, Shibani Mehta focuses on key aspects of enhancing the partnership between India and the US, particularly in science, technology, and defense. Noting India's ambition to strengthen its position as a technology innovator, she emphasizes the necessity for a robust relationship at both governmental and private sector levels. Ms. Mehta highlighted the significant momentum in science and technology, as well as defense cooperation, attributing it to strong leadership commitments from both nations. The speaker underlined the importance of internal reform within India's domestic ecosystems, citing policy developments in areas like robotics and space. She suggests addressing challenges in the innovation ecosystem through grants, awards, and regular workshops in both countries. Ms.Mehta advocates for socializing and demystifying processes for the private sector and proposes the establishment of a common agency for defense cooperation, drawing parallels with successful models in the space sector. She concluded by citing instances such as the Ged and Micron facilities as proof of concept for the partnership's potential, emphasizing the need to scrutinize internal workings for effective collaboration.

The last speaker, Dr. Vijayalakshmi, outlined several key points regarding the current state and potential challenges of the Indo-U.S. strategic partnership. Notably, the transition from estrangement to a recognized, comprehensive strategic partnership was emphasized, underscoring the evolution and maturity of the relationship. The support in the U.S. and a political consensus in India were acknowledged as critical factors contributing to the partnership's strength. Economic cooperation, technology transfer, and India's pursuit of building an advanced industrial base through partnerships were highlighted as important aspects. Dr. Vijayalakshmi raised awareness about the emerging trend of organizing the world into democracies and autocracies, cautioning against an "us versus them" dynamic. Differences on global issues, persistent irritants related to sensitivities, and the intertwined nature of foreign and domestic policies in both countries were identified as challenges. 

Questions posed by participants:

• What is the U.S. stance on India’s growing partnership with the Philippines and Vietnam in terms of hardware capacity building?

Dr. Satu Limaye highlighted that the U.S. is now very receptive to India participating in various activities in the East Asian region, marking a significant shift in the U.S.-India relationship over the past 10-15 years. The substantial change is observable both in practical engagements and policy considerations, given the scarce attention given to India's relations with East Asia in the 1990s.

The U.S. now encourages more opportunities for regional countries to make choices and form partnerships, extending the welcome to countries such as India, Australia, Japan, and even entities like the European Union (EU) and NATO. Dr. Limaye emphasized the collective collaboration of the U.S., India, Australia, and Japan, acknowledging the presence of other significant powers in the region. This collaborative approach reflects a strategic shift in the geopolitical landscape.

• Does any divergence in India's defence relations with Russia hinder cooperation between the United States and India, or is it possible to compartmentalize such differences and move forward, focusing on the goals both nations wish to achieve? Are there any potential challenges on the periphery that could be addressed due to the ongoing strong defence relationship between India and Russia?

Ambassador Arun Singh addressed concerns regarding the potential constraints in India-US relations. He emphasized India's commitment to sustaining its historical ties with Russia, rooted in strong defence cooperation, partnership, and political support. Despite India's growing partnership with the US, the country is cautious not to fully rely on the US, given the unpredictability of US priorities in the past.

In the context of the India-China issue, India aims to prevent Russia from aligning too closely with China due to existing challenges in Russia's relations with the U.S. and Europe, as well as complexities in its relationship with China. India recognizes the importance of maintaining its relationship with Russia, especially considering that nearly 60% of its defence acquisitions originate from Russia.

While India is inclined towards a stronger partnership with the U.S., the country is mindful of diversifying its alliances. This approach safeguards against potential shifts in U.S. interests, as witnessed in the past. Amb also mentioned that India also seeks partnerships with Russia or France to hedge against any significant changes in the U.S. position.

The aftermath of the Russia-Ukraine conflict raises concerns about Russia's international behaviour and India needs to monitor developments in its relationship with Russia carefully. But also, India reassures the U.S. that technological cooperation plans do not compromise its relationship with Russia, ensuring the confidence and trust in the India-U.S. partnership remain intact.

Dr. Raja Mohan added his insights, emphasizing that while Russia has played a crucial role in the past, its significance in the future remains uncertain. Presently, it is viewed as a component of dependence, and this dynamic is undergoing changes. As India increasingly develops the capability to manufacture defence technologies domestically in the near future, its reliance on Russia is expected to diminish. This trend is anticipated to persist, particularly in the aftermath of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

• The U.S.-India relationship has exhibited strong performance, yet it falls short in addressing the questions raised regarding problems and challenges. This underscores the broader alignment of national security interests, as evidenced by the recent developments in the Middle East. In this context, what are the most challenging divergences to manage in 2024?

Dr. Vijaylakshmi emphasized that in the current era of competition, cooperation is imperative, whether one appreciates it or not. It transcends mere rivalry and conflict, evolving into a more complex form of competition. This transition poses a significant challenge for countries, introducing perception difficulties that need to be addressed

• How can we expand our knowledge base about the domestic politics of the United States and India, considering that India's understanding of American politics is currently limited?

Dr. Setu emphasized that a deeper understanding of American dynamics can be attained through the establishment of American centres. He illustrated this point by referencing an example from two decades ago when Australia set up the U.S.-Australia Centre in Perth and Sydney, aimed at studying U.S. dynamics for debates.

Suggestions and Recommendations by Experts

• Establishing a strong foundation is essential before constructing a superstructure. Given India's vast size in terms of population and unique geographical shape, the American studies curriculum in universities is somewhat limited. To develop partnerships, it is imperative to develop people-to-people contacts to build trust at the grassroots level, thereby shaping U.S.-India relations.

• The cooperation circle initiative can explore and emphasize novel and unexplored connections between the US and India.