Research

Working papers

The Labor Market Impacts of GLP-1s 

with N. Meltem Daysal, Ida L. Kristiansen, Mircea Trandafir, and Jonathan Zhang.

Conditionally Accepted, American Economic Review: Insights

NBER WP #35475, July 2026

We estimate the causal impacts of GLP-1 treatment on labor market outcomes using linked Danish administrative data and a matched stacked difference-in-differences design. We compare patients who initiate GLP-1 treatment during the first two years of Semaglutide availability to observably similar patients who initiate four years later. We find that GLP-1 treatment reduces long-term sickness leave by 17.3%. We estimate total fiscal benefits of GLP-1 initiation of approximately 1.3 to 1.5% of annual labor income per employed individual. We do not detect statistically significant or economically meaningful impacts on income, labor force participation, or employment over four years.

Media mentions: CBS News, VoxEU

Work in progress

Do English Learner Programs Improve Educational Outcomes? Evidence from Texas

with Jorge Luis Tello Garza.

Approximately 25 million people in the US have limited English proficiency, a barrier that can affect educational attainment, labor market outcomes, and social mobility. Policymakers pour resources into programs designed to improve the educational outcomes of English Learner (EL) students, whose primary language is not English and who are not yet fluent in English. However, there is ongoing debate over the effectiveness of EL programs, the different program models, and how to allocate resources to each. We estimate the causal impact of EL programs on educational and labor market outcomes of K-12 students in Texas, using linked longitudinal administrative data for all public school students. We employ a fuzzy regression discontinuity design, exploiting quasi-random variation in reclassification out of EL programming induced by students’ test scores on an English examination. We find no detectable effect on the end-of-year test scores of students on the margin of EL reclassification.