Serving Data

by Erik Jensen
A Blog on Tennis, Data, And Tennis Data

Make THEM Play Tennis!

November 5, 2026

I overheard a very good amateur yell at himself, "Make THEM play tennis!" during a tournament. I liked this quote as he had just given the other a team a point for no reason (as we all do), and I repeat it to myself on occasion.

Having heard that most points end with four or fewer shots, I watched and tracked three different amateur doubles matches at the 4.0 level (people a bit better than me so I can possibly emulate them). I tracked both the number of shots and the reason the point ended. Reasons were categorized as the following:

Winner: A shot where the other team didn't touch the ball.
Forced error: A shot that couldn't be made with normal effort and skill at this level, such as a fast shot at the feet or the player having to make a hard lunge for the ball.
Unforced error: A shot that should have been in with normal effort and skill at this level.

Distinguishing between a forced error and an unforced error wasn't always obvious, particularly on first serves. So the data isn't perfect. But I think we can still glean some useful information from the matches.

The matches I analyzed had a variety of styles, with individual matches having certain strong tendencies among all of the players

Calm Net Players Mixed: I thought this group was fundamentally sound. They hit their shots with the right pace (not overhitting but also not "pushers") and tried to get to the net.
Aggressive Baseliners Mixed: This group hit both their serves and groundstrokes hard. They rarely came to the net.
Aggressive Baseliners Men: This was men with the same style as the previous group.

For every match, the majority of points indeed ended after four shots or fewer. The more agressive players ended many points after only one or two shots. Long baseline rallies almost never happen in doubles. So work on your serve and return, regardless of your style of play.

Calm players who got to the net had fewer unforced errors, more forced errors, and plenty of winners. The aggressive men had nearly 80% unforced errors. Selective aggression is key. Make THEM play tennis!

Unforced error returns were a particularly common occurrence for the aggressive men. Winners on returns were rare, My takeaway is that you should hit good, solid returns that avoid the net person. Of course you must go down the line against a net player once in a while so that they don't get too aggressive. And surprising the server with a powerful return can help. But that isn't how to win points regularly. Make THEM play tennis!

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