Local engineer Rowan Huxtable has compiled some important facts about or need for off shore wind farms:
In 2021, Australia generated 266TWH of electricity. 1
71% - or 188TWH - of that was from fossil fuel. (51% - or 136TWH - from coal). 1
By 2050 we need to replace all of that fossil fuel generation to be at net zero emissions.
By 2043, all our coal fired power stations are expected to be closed. 5And the private sector will not build any new ones.
Most countries plan to phase out new internal combustion (ICE) engine vehicle sales by 2040. 6 Car manufacturers will have almost ceased manufacturing EVs. So, by 2050, the great majority of Australia’s vehicle fleet will be electrified in spite of the Australian government’s lacklustre EV policy. AEMO (the Australian Energy Market Operator) estimates that by 2050 we will need to generate between 82 and 140TWH per annum of extra electricity to convert our industrial and domestic gas use to electricity, and to provide power for electrified vehicles. 2 About 2/3 of this is for transport.3 Converting our vehicle fleet to EVs means that we will save
AEMO estimates we can save 55 – 85TWH electricity per annum by improving energy efficiency. 4
So how quickly do we need to build new power stations?
Adding this all up, by 2050 we need to build annual power generation of:
188TWH to replace existing fossil fuel power stations
+82 to140TWH for electrification
-55 to 85TWH pa energy savings
=185 to 273TWH pa of new renewable power capability
Averaging this over 26 years from now to 2050, that’s 7 – 10TWH per year EVERY YEAR
That’s the same order of magnitude as adding a large (2-3GW) renewable project operating at 30-40% capacity factor9 EVERY YEAR
BUT WAIT THERE’S MUCH MORE NEEDED AND MUCH MORE OPPORTUNITY
The WORLD cannot achieve net zero emissions by 2050 unless they have access to substantial quantities of Australian Hydrogen gas. And, if the world is close to net zero by 2050, nobody will be using much Australian coal.
To replace our current fossil fuel exports with Green Hydrogen, Net Zero Australia modelling indicates that , to replace our current fossil fuel exports by Green Hydrogen, we would need to increase NEM capacity by a factor of 40.13 That’s adding more than one complete new NEM grid EVERY YEAR.
References
Electricity generation | energy.gov.au
2023-inputs-assumptions-and-scenarios-report.pdf (aemo.com.au) , figure 8
2023-inputs-assumptions-and-scenarios-report.pdf (aemo.com.au) , figure 9
2023-inputs-assumptions-and-scenarios-report.pdf (aemo.com.au) , figure 32
Timeline for coal exit from Australia's energy market (leadingedgeenergy.com.au)
Phase-out of fossil fuel vehicles - Wikipedia
2023-inputs-assumptions-and-scenarios-report.pdf (aemo.com.au)
eraring annual energy generation - Search (bing.com)
Global offshore wind capacity factor 2021 | Statista
EnergyAustralia pledges to ditch coal by 2040, closing coal-fired power stations - ABC News
Potential Eraring closure delay receives backlash - Energy Magazine
Offshore Wind | BlueFloat Energy
Australia needs massive renewable energy expansion to hit net zero by 2050 -study | Reuters