Key concepts for your schema. Use these questions to test your knowledge before scrolling down!
What are the causes of El Nino?
What is the pattern of winds & precipitation in a normal year over the Pacific?
What is the pattern of winds & precipitation in an El Nino year over the Pacific?
What are the impacts of El Nino on
and global precipitation? (Make sure you can refer to places for each impact)
Where do hurricanes/typhoons form?
What are the four conditions needed for their formation?
What is the structure of a hurricane/typhoon?
How does the air flow at the surface? What upper air flows are needed?
What are the three main sections of a hurricane/typhoon (what figures do you need to quote to describe them fully)?
Can you draw an annotated 2D diagram showing the structure of a hurricane?
What are the three hazards/impacts associated with a hurricane/typhoon?
Can you describe the timeline of the formation and development of Haiyan? What are the key dates, locations and size of the storm?
What were the impacts on people? What were the impacts on property? What facts can you recall?
What were the four protective measures taken? How effective were they and why? And how about the facts?
ENSO stands for the El Nino Seasonal Oscillation. It refers to a periodic reversal of the normal easterly Trade Winds over the Pacific. It happens every 3-7 years and may last for a few months to a year. This reversal of winds has huge implications for weather conditions across our entire planet, as we shall see.
In this section, we'll look first at the causes of El Nino, before looking at the impact it has on global patterns of precipitation and winds.
As we discovered in Section 2, as part of the Hadley Cell, there is a movement of air from 30 degrees N/S towards the Equator. Due to the Coriolis Effect and Friction, these winds are deflected and so the winds over the central Pacific are normally easterly winds (the Trade Winds).
The El Nino starts when these winds
weaken
or reverse to become westerly winds.
Let's see in more detail how this all works.
Look at the normal pattern of precipitation in the tropical areas of the Pacific (between the equator and 30 N/S). What patterns can you see in the precipitation there?
Work through the Slides presentation element by element to understand how the ENSO events occur (the notes and still images are below this Slides). As the Slides animates, it will guide you through, step by step, how the E.N.S.O. develops. Proceed slowly through the Slides, making sure you understand each element well on the way through!
Under normal conditions, the easterly Trade Winds push the water west over the Pacific where it is warmed by the tropical Sun. The water in the eastern Pacific is replaced by an upwelling of cold water from deeper in the Ocean. This upwelling of cold water feeds into the cold Humbolt Current that runs up the western coast of South America.
The warm water that is moved to the West heats the air above it, causing it rise and cool adiabatically. This brings rain to the western edges of the Pacific, over the islands of SE Asia especially.
In the upper air, there is a return air current, as the upper air moves eastwards towards the Americas. If falls down again off the west coast of North and South America. As it falls, it warms adiabatically, and so there is less cloud and rain there.
Remember our glorious fog harvesting case study from GCSE days? That happened in Chungungo, Chile, in the Atacama Desert. This desert is the driest desert in the world, partly due to the falling air that is part of the Walker Circulation!
During El Nino years, the normal easterly wind pattern weakens or even completely reverses (the reason why is not fully understood, so you are not likely to be asked about this in the exam).
This means that the winds push the water eastwards, where it is warmed in the tropics, and so the warmer water ends up in the Mid-Pacific or even all the way over at the eastern edge, beside the Americas.
Consequently, the warm rising air is moved further eastwards, whilst the colder falling air is now located over the western edge of the Pacific.
This reverses the rainfall pattern:
Normal year = wetter in the west, drier in the east
El Nino year = drier in the west, wetter in the east.
Useful summary video of the El Nino
There is no requirement for a case study for El Nino. But, the best way to get some depth and detail into your exam answers for this is to refer to the most recent El Nino in 2015/16 and look at some of the impacts of it across the globe.
Note also the Spec terms here: global winds and precipitation. You can expect exam questions to use these terms, so the notes below are organised under these headings - and you should make sure you learn them under these headings too!
Tropical cyclones - as the name suggests - form in the tropical regions of the Earth, starting life over either the eastern Pacific or Eastern Atlantic before moving west, driven by the easterly trade winds.
As they move west over the warm oceans, they can intensify. If their average sustained wind speeds exceed 74 mph, they are classified as hurricanes (in the Atlantic) or typhoons (in the Pacific).
The satellite image shows a staggering 9 tropical storms travelling around our planet in September 2018.
In this section, we will be studying:
formation
structure
impacts
management response
And we will be studying the case study of Typhoon Haiyan, 2013.
Hurricanes start life as tropical depressions. In the Atlantic Ocean, them form over the east of the Ocean just off the coast of Africa. Disturbances in the easterly winds blowing across the desert create atmospheric instabilities that can from into storms - and sometimes hurricanes - as they track eastwards, following the Trade Winds there.
In the Pacific, they again form over the western Pacific, above the warm water pushed westwards by the Trade Winds in the tropics.
The conditions needed for their formation are outlined in the table below.
Here's an animated version of the diagram above. Use this to guide you through the elements you need to notice as they appear.
This animated gif shows Hurricane Florence (to the left of the image) tracking west across the Atlantic Ocean. To the top left of the image is Florida and the USA. To the right is Africa - you can see some other tropical storms that have formed off the coast of the Africa, also tracking west.
The key source of energy for hurricanes/typhoons is the sea. As these storms move over land, this energy source is removed, and the hurricane quickly begins to decay. Although the storm remains very strong and formidable, it is not as strong as it would be over the ocean. You can often see the eye break up in satellite images as the storm moves over land.
This gif shows Hurricane Katrina passing across the warm Gulf of Mexico and making land fall. Look at how the eye almost immediately began to break down.
Hurricanes and typhoons are intense three-dimensional revolving low pressure storms characterised by:
Note the air spiralling in anticlockwise, rising then spiralling out in the upper atmosphere in a clockwise direction.
At the surface, as air is drawn in rapidly, spiralling into the centre of the very low pressure in an anticlockwise direction (in the northern hemisphere). This produces rapid upward movement as the air experiences convectional rising due to the warm ocean temperatures.
In the upper atmosphere as the rising air is moved away quickly, spiralling out in an clockwise direction (in the northern hemisphere). This forms a shield or layer of cirrus clouds over the top of the hurricane.
They can reach a diameter of 1000 km and recorded vertical heights of 12–14 km are not uncommon.
Hurricanes have three main structural elements:
At the heart of the hurricane is the central eye which can measure approximately 50 km in diameter. The eye is calm and characterised by descending air currents. This falling air warms adiabatically and so this suppresses clouds formation. This is the warmest part of the storm.
Surrounding the eye is the eye-wall. This is the most destructive part of the storm where winds are strongest (they may exceed 240 km/h), air rises most rapidly and the precipitation levels are highest.
Surrounding the eye-wall are the rain bands, curved bands of cumulonimbus clouds and thunderstorms that trail away from the eye wall in a spiral fashion. They can produce very heavy rain, squally winds and may even spawn tornadoes.
Put these all together in one image and they look like this:
The main impacts of hurricanes result from the following:
Sustained wind speeds in a hurricane are by definition at least 74mph, but they often are well in excess of this (never mind the localised gusts), and they can cause serious damage to buildings.
Additionally, about half of all hurricanes trigger tornadoes when they hit land, which, although small and relatively short lived, can have wind speeds in excess of 200 mph and obviously can cause catastrophic damage to property and infrastructure. For example, hurricane Katrina spawned 44 tornadoes across 6 states.
Flooding can also come from the sea. The very low pressure associated with hurricanes reduces the weight of air on the ocean surfaces allowing them to rise upwards.
This combines with the strong winds which drive the water onshore to cause a storm surge. Water is piled up against the coast to a much higher level than normal. The storm surge is more than merely larger waves breaking. It is a rising up of the level of the sea, allowing it to reach much further inland than would be normal. Storm surges for hurricanes may exceed 3m.
With up to 5 billion tonnes of water being carried by a hurricane, and precipitation levels that can exceed 300mm in a matter of days, rainfall is a major hazard associated with hurricanes; it often results in major flood hazards for rivers in coastal areas.
What does this graph show about the relative dangers associated with the different tropical cyclone hazards?
Given that tropical cyclones are more easily forecastable than other hazards such as earthquakes, it is possible to take action to try to save lives when one is approaching. Statistics suggest that, as forecasting has improved over recent decades, the overall trend of deaths associated with hurricanes and typhoons has fallen - this is largely due to the fact that it is possible to try to evacuate people out of the track of the storm before it arrives.
However, when it comes to protecting property, it is a very different story. Property and possessions must be abandoned as people evacuate. They are then left to the mercy of the winds, storm surge and river flooding that accompanies these storms. And they can completely devastate the property of an area.
In terms of protective measures, the following steps can be taken to protect people and property:
Prediction and warning - being able to inform people of the timing, size and scale of the hazard - and whether or not evacuation would be needed
Education of people of the risk and what to do when a tropical cyclone is approaching
Building codes - trying through planning to make property more resilient to tropical cyclones
Coastal engineering - to try to mitigate the impacts, especially the water related hazards
We'll explore these in more detail in the case study of Typhoon Haiyan.
BBC News - images, text, video. An excellent place to deepen your understanding of this case study.
Latitude - 6 N
Humidity
Temperature & seasonality - November, seas = 30C; 100m deep, 3C above average
The route of Typhoon Haiyan, with sea temperatures at the time.
Latitude: Typhoon Haiyan started life as a low pressure that formed east of New Guinea, which became the focus of convectional rising. As this was 6 N, the Coriolis Effect was strong enough to enable the storm to begin rotating.
Humidity: As this convection was over the sea, the levels of humidity were high, contributing additional energy into the storm via latent heat released on condensation.
Temperature & seasonality: As it was early November, the sea had had time to heat up to high temperatures, and to sufficently deep levels. On 5 November, the storm rapidly intensified as it moved over seas at 30 C, and with heat extending unusually deep. At 100 m deep, the temperatures were 3 C above average. The storm experienced high sea temperatures all the way across to the Philippines, meaning it intensified to a Cat 5 storm by landfall, bringing the fastest sustained land wind speeds ever recorded at 315 kph.
This is a 72 hour animation of clouds and sea surfact temperature. You can clearly see the moment Haiyan's eye forms - and how it loses some of its structure as soon as it makes landfall over the Philippines.
Eye - 15 km wide
Eye wall - very intesnt
Rain bands extending out up to 800 km
Winds - over 300 kph
Rain - 400 mm in a few days
Storm surges - up to 6 m high
As it made landfall, Haiyan:
was 800 km in diameter, with rain bands spiralling out from the centre and
with a 15 km wide eye, surrounded by a very intense eye wall
Haiyan made 7 landfalls as it tracked across the islands of the Philippines, before tracking away to the north west across the South China Sea.
As it crossed over the islands:
it brought sustained wind speeds over 300 km/hour
400 mm of rain over a few days (which triggered landslides)
storm surges up to a staggering 6 m high - it was these walls of water that caused most of the devastation to people and property, as we will see.
Haiyan approaches the Philippines.
The storm surge crashes ashore. Looking more like a tsunami, this was a greater storm surge than had ever been experienced before at the Philippines.
Winds: 315 kph
Visayas Island (inc Tacloban City)
Storm surge
Funnelled up San Pablo Bay
Tacloban City - up to 6m, 2km inland, Tacloban Conference Centre
Tacloban --> Ormoc --> Bogo City --> Palawan Province
People:
Typhoon Haiyan hit Guiuan, Leyte with winds of 315 kph, the strongest ever observed.
Upper floors were particularly vulnerable to the winds, causing significant damage to settlements in Visayas.
Lack of evacuation resulted in over 2300 deaths in Tacloban City alone, with only 20,000 of 240,000 evacuating.
Storm surge reached heights of up to 6m, sweeping 2 km inland across the low lying flat land of the city.
Around 100 people died of drowning in the designated evacuation shelter.
Property:
Initially, the sustained winds damaged many buildings, especially their upper floors.
Storm surge caused significant damage, with 12,300 structures destroyed and 46,500 partially damaged in Tacloban City alone.
Ormoc and Bogo City saw over 90% of buildings destroyed or damaged.
18,800 structures were destroyed or damaged in Palawan Province.
The airport in Tacloban was severely damaged.
In total, 1.14 million structures across the Philippines were totally or partially damaged.
Typhoon Haiyan first made landfall in the city of Guiuan on the island of Leyte in the Philippines. The one-minute sustained winds were 315 kph at landfall, making it the strongest tropical cyclone ever observed based on wind speed. As the winds tore through the settlements in the islands of Visayas, many residents sheltered on the ground floor, as upper floors were particularly vulnerable to the winds. This choice, normally the wise one during previous typhoons, proved disastrous for tens of thousands of Filippinos, especially in Tacloban City. Around one third of all deaths from Haiyan occurred in Tacloban City alone (2300 died there).
This was in part due to the lack of evacuation of people beforehand. The authorities did issue warnings, but many chose to ignore them - only 20,000 of the 240,000 people of Tacloban evacuated. Additionally, the storm surge was much greater from Haiyan than had been the case in storms in living memory. But as the storm surge entered San Pablo Bay, it was funnelled up the narrow bay towards Tacloban City, gaining height as it went. It came onshore fast, reaching heights of up to 6m, and sweeping 2 km inland across the low lying flat land of the city (only 1-2m above sea level). The people who evacuated did not stand a chance, and thousands were drowned in minutes by the deadly wave.
Even some of those who did evacuate also suffered from the storm surge. The Tacloban Conference Centre was designated as an evacuation shelter and around 4000 people sheltered there. But, situated right on the shore, reports indicate that the storm surge overwhelmed the building. It is estimated that around 100 people died there of drowning.
In total, 6300 people were killed by Haiyan, 4 million displaced due to damage to their homes, and 14 million affected more broadly by the disaster.
Initially, the sustained winds of over 315 kph damaged many buildings, especially their upper floors, as roofs were torn off and windows smashed. However, later on in the storm, it was the 6m high storm surge that caused significant damage to the property as well. As the winds shifted to southerly once the eye had moved passed Tacloban, this pushed the storm surge waters up San Pablo Bay, innudating the city.
In Tacloban City, 12,300 structures were destroyed and 46,500 partially damaged.
The airport in Tacloban was severely damaged. The terminal building was destroyed by a 6 m storm surge which reached up to the height of the second storey. Runways were submerged and could not be used.
On the other side of the island from Tacloban, the citiea of Ormoc saw more than 90 % of buildings destroyed or damaged. On the neighbouring island of Cebu, 90% of budilings in Bogo City were destroyed or damaged
More than fifteen hours after first landfall, Haiyan made its sixth and final landfall in the Philippines in Palawan Province, 550 km west of Tacloban, where saw 18,800 structures destroyed or damaged.
In total, 1.14 million structures across the Philipines were totally or partially damaged
Click here to see more photos and maps of the damage and devastation caused by Haiyan.
A video of the storm surge coming on shore
People:
Protective measures for people in advance of the storm were forecasting and evacuation.
The US Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) monitored the developing storm and provided information to the Philippines met office, PAGASA.
PAGASA issued warnings that were broadcast on local media outlets, but the magnitude of the storm was underestimated, affecting people's willingness to evacuate.
A lack of evacuation was a significant reason for the high death toll.
Factors contributing to the lack of evacuation included population complacency, mistrust and miscommunication by the authorities, and concerns about safety in evacuation shelters.
Property:
The Philippines had building codes and standards in place to help mitigate the impacts of typhoons.
Challenges in implementing and enforcing the building codes included a lack of capacity within government agencies, a lack of awareness and education among builders, and a culture of informal housing construction.
Land use zoning planning was in place in Tacloban City prior to Typhoon Haiyan, with regulations for coastal areas to limit development in high-risk areas.
Limited enforcement and monitoring mechanisms meant that many developers and residents continued to build in high-risk areas, contributing to the high level of damage during Typhoon Haiyan.
FORECASTING
How - satellite remote senting
Timing & location - good
Strength - underestimated
Warnings given
SO... Timing & location good; strength, underestimated - could this have affected people's willingness to evacuate?
EVACUATIONS
No collective memory of traumatic disasters from storm surges
Distrust of authorities
Issues with communication of warnings
Concerns about safety of evacuation shelters
SO... despite warnings, combination of: complacency, mistrust & miscommunication -> contributed to scale of disaster
There were two main preventative measures designed to protect people.
First, forecasting. The developing storm was monitored by the US Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). They tracked it on a daily basis and provided information to the Philippines met office, PAGASA. JTWC used data from a range of satellites, including geostationary and polar-orbiting satellites, to track the storm's position, intensity, and movement. SWIR bands from the COMS-1 geostationary satellite were used to identify the storm’s structure, including the positioning and intensity of its rainbands.
The JTWC managed to forecast the timing and location of the storm accurately. But they underestimated the strength. They predicted that Haiyan would make landfall as a Category 4 storm, with maximum sustained winds of around 200 km/h. However, the storm ended up being much stronger than anticipated, with maximum sustained winds of 315 km/h and gusts of up to 380 km/h at its peak.
PAGASA issued warnings that were broadcast on local media outlets. On 6 November, a low level Public Storm Warning was issued - this was quickly upgraded within a day to the highest warning level. On 7 November, the president went on TV to help publicise the warning.
The second protective measure was evacuations. Over 6,300 people were killed by Haiyan, and a significant reason for this was the lack of evacuation. Only 20,000 of the 240,000 people of Tacloban evacuated.
A study after the storm by Walsh (2018) revealed that although people had experienced natural disaster before in previous cyclones, there was no collective memory of traumatic disasters, especially storm surges. As a result, many simply thought that they could ride out the storm, as they had done before.
Additionally, Walsh also revealed distrust of the authorities played a part. Low level violence in many regions of the Philippines and state corruption meant that people tended to turn to their community, social media and TV for news, rather than trusting the officials.
Furthermore, Walsh points out issues with the message being communicated by the authorities. Given the lack of community experience of significant storm surges - a threat the local TV channels failed to explain properly - people did not understand the risk they were under. In fact, reflections after the disaster suggested that the authorities would have been better using the term tsunami rather than storm surge. Although, strictly speaking, this was an inaccurate use of the term, it is one that local people did understand and would have responded to. "Many victims argued that if they had known a storm surge would have the same effect as a tsunami, they would have evacuated," said Walsh.
Finally, concerns about safety in evacuation shelters was another reason. “We know and we want to protect what we have, going to the evacuation centre increases the risk of losing our belongings” said one of Walsh's focus groups. Many people perceived staying at home presented less of a risk than moving to an evacuation shelter.
BUILDING CODES
Codes in place
BUT...
Lack of enforcement due to lack of capacity by authorities
Lack of awareness and education among builders about the importance of building codes
Culture of informal housing construction without permits
LAND USE ZONING
Comprehensive Land Use Plan (CLUP) in place
BUT...
Significant gaps in the implementation of these regulations
Challenges in terms of compliance with the regulations by local government units
Prior to Typhoon Haiyan, the Philippines had a set of building codes and standards in place to help mitigate the impacts of typhoons. The codes were enacted in 1972 and updated in 2004 and set out minimum standards for building design, construction, and materials, with the goal of ensuring the safety of buildings and their occupants in the face of natural disasters.
Despite the existence of these building codes and standards, there were significant challenges in implementing and enforcing them. One of the main challenges was the lack of capacity within government agencies. In many cases, building inspections were not carried out or were insufficient to ensure compliance with the codes.
Another challenge was the lack of awareness and education among builders about the importance of building codes. In some cases, builders and developers may have chosen to cut corners or use cheaper materials that did not meet the standards set out in the codes in order to save costs. Even if they were found out on inspection, fines were generally too low to be much of an incentive for compliance.
Finally, in some areas, there was a culture of informal housing construction, where homes were built without the necessary permits or oversight from authorities. This was especially true in urban areas such as Tacloban City, where there was high demand for cheap housing.
There was land use zoning planning in place in Tacloban City prior to the arrival of Typhoon Haiyan. The city had a Comprehensive Land Use Plan (CLUP) that was set to cover the period from 2000 to 2010. The plan included regulations for coastal areas, with the goal of limiting development in areas vulnerable to storm surges and other hazards. These regulations required a no build zone at least 40m from the shoreline, and that coastal areas be used only for low-density residential and recreational purposes. It also prohibited the construction of critical facilities such as hospitals and schools in these areas.
However, the effectiveness of these regulations in practice was limited by a range of factors. First, there were significant gaps in the implementation of these regulations, with limited enforcement and monitoring mechanisms in place. This lack of enforcement meant that many developers and residents continued to build in high-risk areas, contributing to the high level of damage during Typhoon Haiyan. Additionally, there were many informal settlements built in the 40m no build zone.
Secondly, there were also challenges in terms of compliance with the regulations by local government units, particularly in smaller municipalities. Some local officials were also found to have conflicts of interest, such as owning properties in areas that were not compliant with the regulations.