Based on the free cash flow model, the value of Lockheed Martin is $522.39, using the same WACC as per the cost of capital section. Currently Lockheed's shares are trading around $477.08, making the company undervalued according to the FCF model.
The growth rate is derived from a sales forecast, using Factset and Value Line estimates of future sales. Given future sales estimations, a growth rate can be determined using the previous fiscal years revenue. The growth rates from 2030-2035 in the second figure, are determined by setting a target growth rate of 4%, using the previous growth rate in 2029 to determine Lockheed's growth rate for the next six years.
Given that Lockheed is titan in the defense industry, they will continue to develop groundbreaking technology and defense systems going forward. Additionally, continued defense spending will remain a key factor in increased growth for Lockheed. Lockheed also has a large order backlog which will offer multi-year revenues, along with recurring revenue streams from future contract expectations.
The cost of goods sold forecast is measured as a percent of revenue, here there were no estimates given on Value Line, and FactSet's estimation did not match what historical averages were showing. In the first figure, the historical averages are shown through 2029, and a 90.12% COGS ratio is used through 2035. With Lockheed's COGS growing over the past five years, it is safe to assume it will remain at high levels, and continue to grow linear to revenues. Lockheed derives most of it's costs from COGS and it has remained the largest expense on the financial statements over the last five years.
Given that most of Lockheed's contracts are fixed cost, they bear the cost risk associated with the contracts and build outs. Additionally, the products Lockheed produces are complex and involve high cost manufacturing, further driving up COGS figures.
SG&A % is taken as an average of SG&A expense over the last five years. The figures are derived from a vertical analysis, which divides SG&A expense from total revenues. Lockheed has had little to no SG&A expense over the last five years, and will continue to have low SG&A expenses going forward. Most of their costs are sunk into COGS.
The change in net operating assets, is derived from the average NOA as a percent of sales. The negative figures shown below represent NOA as a percentage of sales, negative figures represent investemnt into assets. The change in NOA% is calculated from the average of the 2023-2024 figures in the far right section.
Using -1.42% as the change in NOA figure represents investment in operating assets from Lockheed martin. Given the investment in operating assets, it is expected that Lockheed will ramp up production for major programs such as the F-35 or hypersonic missiles, which require upscaling production facilities, equipment and inventories. Additionally Lockheed is investing in digital infrastructure and automation to maximize capabilities, to maintain dominance in the defense industry.
The stock price is derived from the key inputs below, specifically the value of equity/ # of shares outstanding.
The net present value of free cash flow for 2025-2035.
WACC is used as the rate to finance the business
$204,344 represents the total value of future cash flows
Cash, derived from the balance sheet
Derived from the long term debt accounts on the balance sheet
Enterprise Value + Excess Assets - Value of Debt
Taken from Value Line
Lockheed has long term contracts and recurring revenue streams, which provide stable and predictable cash flows. Given Lockheed's position in the defense industry, they will remain a top competitor, and will continue to get the first look for most contracts.
With a $150B order backlog, Lockheed is able to ensure some multi-year visibility and reduce revenue volatility. In turn Lockheed will continue to provide strong financial results, and maintain healthy, growing, financial statements.
While the current administration has promised to cut government spending, the extent to which that will happen can be questioned. With geopolitical tensions rising in Eastern Europe, and Asia, defense budgets are increasing globally, and the U.S. will not scale back if tensions continue to rise. Lockheed will benefit from increased tensions as defense spending spurs from tensions.
Given an estimated 4% growth rate for the future, Lockheed will be expected to continue strengthening and growing operations to remain a top competitor in the defense industry. Additionally Lockheed is a pioneer of tech in the defense arena, and is expected to remain a first mover in next generation weapons.