Research
Publications
Publications
MACROECONOMIC DYNAMICS
THE UNITED STATES POST-WAR PERIOD HAS SEEN A LARGE INCREASE IN AGGREGATE MARKET HOURS WORKED, A DECLINE IN HOURS SPENT IN HOME PRODUCTION, AND A SIMULTANEOUS INCREASE IN THE CONSUMPTION TO OUTPUT RATIO. THIS PAPER USES A MODEL OF SECTORAL REALLOCATION TO RELATE THESE THREE PHENOMENA AND PROVIDE A NOVEL EXPLANATION FOR THE INCREASE IN THE CONSUMPTION TO OUTPUT RATIO. AN INCREASE IN TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY IN THE MARKET SECTOR RELATIVE TO THE HOME SECTOR INDUCES HOUSEHOLDS TO SUBSTITUTE MEASURED MARKET GOODS FOR UNMEASURED HOME GOODS WHEN THEY LEAVE THE HOME TO WORK IN THE MORE PRODUCTIVE MARKET SECTOR. AS LONG AS THE MEASURED CONSUMPTION TO OUTPUT RATIO IS LESS THAN ONE, THE FLOW TO MARKET CONSUMPTION AND PRODUCTION RAISES THE MEASURED CONSUMPTION TO OUTPUT RATIO. THIS CHANNEL ACCOUNTS FOR A QUARTER OF THE INCREASE IN THE MEASURED CONSUMPTION TO OUTPUT RATIO OBSERVED IN THE DATA FROM 1950 TO 2007.MACROECONOMIC DYNAMICS
JOURNAL OF DEMOGRAPHIC ECONOMICS
THE UNITED STATES SAW A RAPID TRANSFORMATION OF THE GENDER COMPOSITION OF ITS LABOR MARKET AFTER THE 1950’S WHEN THE FEMALE LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATE NEARLY DOUBLED FROM 1950 TO 2000. THERE ARE A SEVERAL THEORIES ON THE SOURCES OF THE SUDDEN INCREASE IN FEMALE LABOR SUPPLY, BUT FEW HAVE STUDIED ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES AND TIME-USE DECISIONS AT THE HOUSEHOLD AND INDIVIDUAL LEVEL. AS WOMEN SHIFT THEIR HOURS FROM THE HOME SECTOR TO THE MARKET SECTOR, GOODS THAT WERE PREVIOUSLY PRODUCED IN THE HOME MUST BE REPLACED WITH MARKET SERVICES. THIS PAPER USES THE PANEL STUDY FOR INCOME DYNAMICS AND THE AMERICAN TIME USE SURVEY TO ANALYZE THE EXTENT TO WHICH HOUSEHOLDS REPLACE HOME PRODUCTION WITH PURCHASED MARKET SERVICES WHEN TIME CONSTRAINED WOMEN ENTER THE LABOR MARKET. WE SHOW THAT ON AVERAGE, WOMEN WHO ARE EMPLOYED SPEND LESS TIME ON THOSE HOME PRODUCTION ACTIVITIES THAT HAVE CLOSE MARKET ALTERNATIVES (E.G. PAID CHILDCARE SERVICES VERSUS CARING FOR HER OWN CHILDREN) THAN WOMEN WHO ARE NOT EMPLOYED. ADDITIONALLY, EXPENDITURES ON MARKET SERVICES THAT ARE SUBSTITUTES FOR HOME PRODUCTION ARE HIGHER ON AVERAGE FOR MARRIED HOUSEHOLDS IN WHICH THE FEMALE IS EMPLOYED COMPARED TO HOUSEHOLDS IN WHICH THE FEMALE DOES NOT WORK. JOURNAL OF DEMOGRAPHIC ECONOMICS
Work In Progress
Work In Progress
RECESSIONS AND STRUCTURAL CHANGE (WITH CHRISTIAN SIEGEL AND RISH SINGHANIA)
WE DOCUMENT THAT IN QUARTERLY DATA FOR THE US FROM 1950 TO 2016 THE GOODS-PRODUCING SECTOR SHRINKS FASTER IN RECESSIONS THAN ON THE TREND, BOTH IN TERMS OF EMPLOYMENT AND OF VALUE-ADDED SHARES. WHILE A VAST PREVIOUS LITERATURE HAS FOCUSED ON THE OVERALL STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION OVER LONG PERIODS OF TIME, WE ADD A BUSINESS CYCLE PERSPECTIVE. TO INTERPRET THE DATA, WE DRAW ON A MULTI-SECTOR GROWTH MODEL, SIMILAR TO ACEMOGLU AND GUERRIERI (2008), AUGMENTED BY SECTORAL PRODUCTIVITY FLUCTUATIONS. FIRST WE ESTABLISH ANALYTICALLY THAT THE OBSERVED PATTERNS CAN BE RATIONALIZED IF ON AVERAGE TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH (TFP) IN THE GOODS SECTOR EXCEEDS THE SERVICE SECTOR’S, AND IF AT BUSINESS CYCLE FREQUENCY TFP SHOCKS ARE LARGER IN SERVICES. THEN WE DO A QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS AND SHOW THAT A PARSIMONIOUS MODEL CAN ACCOUNT FOR MANY FEATURES OF THE SECTORAL TRENDS AND FLUCTUATIONS. FINALLY WE ANALYZE THE PROPERTIES OF THE TFP TURBULENCES THAT ARE REQUIRED TO REPLICATE CERTAIN ASPECTS OF THE DATA.RECESSIONS AND STRUCTURAL CHANGE (WITH CHRISTIAN SIEGEL AND RISH SINGHANIA)
FEMALE LABOR SUPPLY AND CONSUMPTION
THE LARGEST GROWTH IN FEMALE LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION OCCURRED AFTER THE 1950’S, THE TIME PERIOD IN WHICH THE UNITED STATES TRANSITIONED TO A SERVICES DOMINANT ECONOMY. WOMEN LEFT THE HOME SECTOR TO WORK IN THE MARKET SERVICES SECTOR WHILE MEN TRANSITIONED FROM THE MARKET GOODS SECTOR TO THE SERVICES SECTOR. HOME PRODUCED GOODS WERE GIVEN UP IN FAVOR OF MARKET PURCHASED SERVICES. THIS MOVEMENT OF SERVICES FROM THE UNACCOUNTED FOR HOME SECTOR TO THE MARKET SECTOR INCREASED THE CONSUMPTION TO OUTPUT RATIO MEASURED IN THE NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT ACCOUNTS. THIS PAPER USES A DYNAMIC MODEL OF STRUCTURAL CHANGE WITH HOMOTHETIC UTILITY AND DIFFERENCES IN TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH BETWEEN SECTORS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SHIFTS IN MALE AND FEMALE EMPLOYMENT OBSERVED IN THE DATA POST 1950’S WHILE BEING CONSISTENT WITH AN INCREASE IN THE CONSUMPTION TO OUTPUT RATIO. THE MODEL ACCOUNTS FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE INCREASE IN SERVICES EMPLOYMENT FOR MEN AND WOMEN FROM 1950 TO 1970, BUT OVER PREDICTS EMPLOYMENT IN THE SERVICES SECTOR FOR WOMEN AND UNDER PREDICTS EMPLOYMENT IN THE SERVICES SECTOR FOR MEN THEREAFTER.FEMALE LABOR SUPPLY AND CONSUMPTION