Job Market Paper
The Great Migration and Those Left Behind (with Michael Neubauer)
Despite the extensive literature on the Great Migration, very little is known about the economic and social consequences for Southern non-migrants. We study the impact out-migration imposes on those who remain behind, focusing on Black Americans who remained in the South during the first decade of the Great Migration. We build a shift-share instrument for the net Black out-migration rate using shocks to manufacturing employment in Northern cities. We find that both Black and White non-migrants experienced increases in wages due to out-migration. Black out-migration also led to farm closures and less racial hostility in Southern communities. We identify labor supply shocks, occupation switching, and changes in the production process as the mechanisms driving our results. At least in the short term, out-migration can be beneficial for non-migrants.
Draft available here
Daughters as Safety Net? Family Responses to Parental Employment Shocks: Evidence from Alcohol Prohibition (with Anna Aizer and Santiago Pérez)
NBER Working Paper 33346
We study the impact of the Federal alcohol Prohibition in 1919 on workers in the alcohol industry and their families using newly linked census records that allow us to follow spouses, sons and daughters. Immediately after Prohibition, men previously working in alcohol-related industries were less likely to be in the labor force, and when working, employed in lower skilled occupations. By 1940, 21 years after Prohibition, workers were still more likely to be in unskilled occupations, but they were more likely to be employed, consistent with delayed retirement. In the short run, sons are largely unaffected but in the long run, they complete slightly more schooling and earn more. Interestingly, daughters were more likely to remain at home, delay marriage and be employed, even 20 years later. These effects are driven by daughters living at home in 1920. Daughters, not sons, appear to have acted as the family's safety net in this period before public provision of relief.
Draft available here
Racial Violence and Migration: Evidence from Historical Lynchings
This study investigates how exposure to racial violence impacts the decision to migrate. I show that there is a positive association between county-level exposure to lynchings and Black out-migration in the US South, using linked census records and data on historical lynchings. Using detailed data on victims of lynchings, I conduct a within-county analysis comparing the post-lynching migration patterns of individuals who lived in the same enumeration district as a victim to comparable individuals in a different enumeration district within the same county. I find that, within a county, Black residents who lived close to a victim were more likely to migrate than those who lived farther away. These results suggest that Black residents who lived near a victim or knew them may have been more fearful of racial violence, prompting them to flee the community in search of a less hostile environment.
Draft available soon