Extreme Scenarios

These maps show flooding due to more extreme levels of sea level rise (SLR) as well as rising groundwater. The medium risk-aversion scenario considers 6.9 feet of SLR and the high-risk aversion scenario considers 10.1 feet of SLR in accordance with the 2018 Ocean Protection Council California State Sea Level Rise Guidance and the Coastal Commission Sea Level Rise Policy Guidance. For each scenario, we have also integrated data on rising groundwater levels from USGS using the estimates that correspond most closely to the degree of SLR in each scenario: 2 meters (~6.6 feet) for the medium-risk aversion SLR scenario, and 3 meters (~9.8 feet) for the high-risk aversion SLR scenario. 'SLR flooding’ refers to water above the surface, resulting from sea level rise. 'GW encroachment' refers to groundwater 1 meter or less below the surface: the rising ocean also forces groundwater up. All areas where groundwater reaches the surface are also directly affected by SLR flooding and fall under that label. 'Indeterminate risk' means groundwater is more than 1 meter below the surface.

For additional information about other sites at risk of SLR flooding in the San Francisco Bay Area that are not included in our maps, such as undergrounds storage tanks, additional clean up sites, and brownfields, visit the Bay Shoreline Flood Explorer and BayKeeper SLR & Pollution Risk to the Bay websites.

Exposed Facilities Extreme Scenarios

Medium Risk-Aversion

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High Risk-Aversion

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