Abstract:

In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, new questions have arisen about just how susceptible our society is to the prospect of future pandemics, given the disastrous consequences of the past two years. In fact, recent research is bringing to light just how likely humanity is to face yet another pandemic within the next several decades, suggesting a several-fold increase in the probability of such an event occurring within only the next several decades. The reasons for such projections are many, however, they all tend to mainly concern the increased likelihood of viral transmission from non-human mammals to humans. Global temperature increases, widespread deforestation, and unethical livestock practices such as factory farming all seem to have a hand in the increased prevalence of such viral transmission. As a result, the only effective way to prevent—or at least lessen the societal and economic impacts of—a future pandemic is to tackle each of the aforementioned issues at the root. Nations around the world should take immediate action to implement the following policy measures:

1. Invest heavily in sustainable energy and infrastructure, and de-carbonize densely populated urban areas by prohibiting or limiting motor vehicle ownership.

2. Disincentivize unsustainable supply chains for corporations by way of tax increases and other such economic sanctions, aiming mainly to prevent deforestation in favor of tree farming in order to decrease human contact with wildlife.

3. Phase out the practice of factory farming as quickly as possible so as to decrease pathogenic mutation and transmission among non-human mammals and between non-human mammals and humans.

Challenges:

At the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, the pervasiveness of the novel coronavirus coupled with a general lack of information sent people all around the world into a state of fear, and rightfully so. As the weeks and months unfolded following the earliest infections, the COVID-19 pandemic proved to be one of the most deadly in human history, with estimates as of May 2022 suggesting more than six million deaths globally. While the worst may appear to be behind us, with governments across the globe loosening public health restrictions such as mask mandates and travel advisories, this could not be further from the truth. In fact, while it may appear that a pandemic such as that of Covid-19 may be a once-in-a-generation event, recent data paints a far more worrisome picture.

According to research from Duke University’s Global Health Institute, the likelihood of future pandemics occurring is higher today than ever before. Data from their inquiry into the prevalence of pandemics throughout history suggests that “the probability of a pandemic with a similar impact to COVID-19 is about 2% in any year” (Penn). To put that into perspective, this estimation implies that for every hundred years that pass, it is almost guaranteed there will be a pandemic resulting in societal and economic ramifications on par with that of the COVID-19 pandemic. What’s more, the study also found that the annual likelihood of a Covid-level pandemic is increasing, with the study estimating that “the probability of novel disease outbreaks will likely grow three-fold in the next few decades” (Penn). 

This increase, however, is not due to mere chance. Rather, human interference with climate and wild habitats around the world leaves us encroaching ever further into the habitats of wild mammals. According to an analysis carried out by the Massachusetts Society for the Prevention of Cruelty Towards Animals, as well as the European Commission on Public Health, 75% of emerging infectious diseases over the past three decades have resulted from what is known as “zoonotic spillover” (“How Factory Farming”) (Smith). Zoonotic spillover refers to a process by which infectious disease in non-human mammals is able to infect humans, resulting in a novel disease. Such was the case for the COVID-19 virus, which is thought to have jumped from bats to humans. 

Because the vast majority of emerging infections result from zoonotic spillover, climatologists warn that continued degradation and human encroachment into natural habitats, rising global temperatures, and factory farming are all contributing factors to the increasing likelihood of future pandemics. As vital ecosystems continue to deteriorate through the clear-cutting of forests around the globe, humanity comes into contact with wild mammals that may potentially carry zoonoses with the capacity to jump hosts more frequently. Similarly, greenhouse gas emissions that raise global temperatures result in fundamental ecological shifts within local ecosystems and drive wide-scale migration of wild animals into more temperature-optimal regions. According to research into the climate’s impact on pandemics, the atmosphere has already warmed so much that “the vast majority of mammal species will overlap with at least one unfamiliar species somewhere in their potential future range, regardless of [a reduction in] emissions” (Carlson), allowing for a far greater risk of viral exchange and mutation that would prime infections to jump to a human host.

Additionally, the world’s growing population means an ever-increasing demand for food. Meat products in particular have proved to be challenging to supply in sufficient quantities given the high demand, especially in Western nations. As a result, agricultural corporations regularly attempt to cut costs and maximize profits through the unethical practice of factory farming that crams hundreds or even thousands of livestock into close quarters, often left to excrete waste and urine onto others or themselves. Such unsanitary and unethical conditions are yet another cause for concern in terms of potential future pandemics, and not without reason. As cesspools for disease, factory farms have a history of generating novel infections. For example, “the H1N1 influenza outbreak of 2009 originated in an industrial pig farm in North Carolina, the Nipah virus was also transmitted from pigs to humans, and the H5N1 avian influenza was transmitted from poultry to humans” (“How Factory Farming”).

As a result of each of the aforementioned contributing factors, the likelihood of a future pandemic emerging as a result of climate and habitat interference on the part of humanity is increasing. In order to prevent future pandemics, or at least abate their consequences, policymakers must take action in passing legislation that will halt such practices. By making evidence-based sustainable decisions in governance, personal life, and industry, humanity may be able to better prepare for the grim future of pandemics.

Proposals:

Because the increase in novel disease emergence is rooted in several different climatological and societal issues and practices, there is no one solution. Rather, the effort society makes to reduce the risk and damage of future pandemics must itself be multifaceted. Therefore, through the rest of this policy brief, I will propose several actionable steps that can be taken by governments and individuals immediately to take a stand against the impending future of pandemics we as a society face. First, the biggest contributor to the increased threat of future pandemics is climate change itself. As previously mentioned, while research suggests that global temperatures have already risen to a point where a reduction in emissions would be inconsequential in decreasing the projected viral transmission among mammals, progress in this sector is still absolutely necessary. This is for the simple reason that if nothing is done to slow and ultimately end global greenhouse emissions, projections of mammalian viral transmission will likely continue to increase. Such was the case for global temperature itself, which over the past several decades has continuously been projected to reach higher and higher levels in less time. Therefore, we must learn from the mistakes of our past, if not to reduce viral transmission then simply to keep the estimates from growing.

To achieve such lofty goals, all nations around the world must play their part. Numerous policy initiatives can be undertaken immediately, with proof from existing iterations of such policies. One such example would be to either limit or ban entirely the ownership of cars and other motor vehicles powered by fossil fuels in densely populated urban areas. Cities such as Barcelona and Oslo have already made great strides towards this goal by deconstructing roadways in large neighborhoods in favor of walking and biking lanes as well as heavy investment in public transit. Moreover, In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, we have seen that multi-billion and trillion-dollar investments can be made when the public feels it is fitting. Therefore, another recommendation would be to have governments around the world invest heavily in sustainable infrastructure and the localization of transportation and resources. This is because when a society is sustainable at the individual level, it must therefore be sustainable at a global level. By implementing these policies and greatly reducing greenhouse gas emissions, global temperatures would not rise as sharply, leveling off the ecological destruction and mitigating further migration of mammals, some of which may be infected with diseases that could potentially jump to humans.

The second set of recommendations concerns human encroachment into wild habitats. The clearcutting of forests like the Amazon basin places human civilization farther into the depths of wild habitats each year. Because tropical regions have among the highest biodiversity on the planet, establishing civilization further into the heart of such regions places humanity at greater risk for zoonotic spillover as a result of increased contact with such wildlife. Therefore, the next policy recommendation would be for countries around the world to issue legislation banning unsustainable supply chains and deforestation itself. Because such deforestation is often the result of special interests and large corporations, the best way to achieve this would be for governments to place disincentives on companies that employ such practices. Whether that be greater taxes on organizations with unsustainable supply chains, or simply ceasing government contracting with such companies, there are myriad ways in which governments can sanction these practices. Norway is a prime example of a country that has already acted upon this idea. In 2020, legislation passed that asserts the Norwegian government will no longer issue construction contracts to private organizations with unsustainable supply chains, obtaining wood through deforestation rather than tree farming. By keeping supply chains sustainable and ending the practice of deforestation, humanity would remain at a distance from the immense biodiversity of Earth’s wilderness, reducing our susceptibility to zoonotic spillover by reducing our contact with wildlife

The third and final recommendation concerns factory farming. As previously mentioned, factory farming poses an enormous risk for zoonotic spillover as it has a history of frequent occurrences within only the past few decades. Such a threat to humanity, coupled with the inhumanity factory farming imposes upon livestock should prove justification enough for the end of unethical farming practices. This is among the most achievable of the policy recommendations, as agricultural regulators within Europe have already committed to phasing out unethical agricultural practices, such as the caging of livestock, by the end of 2030. By ending factory farming, the millions of animals across the globe who are penned into cages one on top of the other will no longer be able to wallow in the filth of one another, greatly reducing the spread of mammalian disease not only among each other but between livestock and humanity as well. Therefore, through the implementation of policies aimed at lowering global emissions and ending deforestation and factory farming, the likelihood of future pandemics would greatly decrease by lowering the probability of zoonotic spillover from animals to humans.

References

Carlson, C.J., Albery, G.F., Merow, C. et al. Climate change increases cross-species viral 

transmission risk. Nature (2022). https://doi-org.libproxy.berkeley.edu/10.1038/

s41586-022-04788-w

Penn, Michael. “Statistics Say Large Pandemics Are More Likely than We Thought.” Duke 

Global Health Institute, August 23, 2021. https://globalhealth.duke.edu/news/statistics-

say-large-pandemics-are-more-likely-we-thought.

Smith, Jonathan. “Q&A: Future Pandemics Are Inevitable, but We Can Reduce the Risk.” 

Horizon Magazine. European Commission, December 16, 2021. https://ec.europa.eu/

research-and-innovation/en/horizon-magazine/qa-future-pandemics-are-inevitable-we-

can-reduce-risk.

“How Factory Farming Could Create the next Pandemic.” MSPCA, February 17, 2022. https://

www.mspca.org/animal_protection/factory-farming-pandemic/.