WORKING PAPERS

In this paper I document that high unemployment rates faced at the start of adulthood have effects on a range of transition into adulthood outcomes. I find that young adults who experience high unemployment rates at or around age 18 have significantly higher probabilities of living with their parents throughout their 20s. Other outcomes reflect heterogeneous responses to economic circumstances. High unemployment rates early in adulthood induce some young adults to get married earlier than they otherwise would, in their late teens rather than early/mid 20s, while others are delayed from marrying in their early/mid 20s to the late 20s. High early unemployment rates influence young adults to attend college and complete college earlier than their luckier counterparts. These outcomes are interconnected with labor market factors: High unemployment in early adulthood positively affects the joint outcome of living with parent(s) and having low earnings, effects that persist up to age 26. 

High incidence of self-harm and suicide among active-duty soldiers and veterans continue to be a major concern for public policy, with rates increasing in recent years. This paper explores the role of peers and social cohesion in preventing self-infliction and suicide among soldiers in a historical context with rich data. Using detailed information on the health outcomes and unit composition of Union Army soldiers during the Civil War, I show that military unit homogeneity is a significant determinant of soldier suicide rates. Unit homogeneity with respect to country of birth is positively associated with the likelihood of death by suicide among white soldiers, potentially reflecting polarized views on the war among US-born white soldiers. Unit homogeneity with respect to state of birth decreased rates of death by self-harm among black soldiers, consistent with social cohesion as a mitigator of self harm.  

WORKS IN PROGRESS

Previous work has documented that adverse economic conditions at the beginning of a young person’s career can have lasting effects on his or her employment and earnings as much as a decade later. In this paper I document that adverse early economic conditions also influence young adults’ occupational choices. I find that young adults who experience high unemployment rates at or around age 18 have significantly higher probabilities of working in physically demanding or risky occupations in the early years of their careers. A 1 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate at age 18 increases the likelihood of being a Veteran at age 20 by .11 percentage points. I also find persistent impacts on other occupational choices, with increases in the likelihood of working as a teacher or in mining and reductions in construction employment. 

The share of 19-30-year-olds living with their parents has increased by roughly 40% since the 1960s. Using data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), I study how this rise in cohabiting affects parents’ retirement decisions. I examine the transitions into part-time or full-time retirement and explore whether the presence of adult children in the home delays or accelerates transitioning into these retirement states. Following Sanchez (2024), I use the unemployment rate when the children were 18 as an instrument for early adult cohabitation. OLS results demonstrate zero effects on parental retirement timing, but IV estimates indicate that the presence of cohabitating children substantially delays parental retirement.

I construct a new database characterizing the television coverage of the Vietnam War at the county level from 1968-1973. The dataset was constructed with the assistance of a team of research assistants I supervised and proceeded in two parts. First, we digitized information on exposure to television channels and news networks from the Television Factbook, a yearly data book documenting television sets and broadcast network availability between 1968-73. This information allows researchers to track the rollout of the ABC, CBS, and NBC networks throughout the country and can be matched to network content in order to create measures of media exposure across counties over time. I combine this information with a second dataset I constructed by digitizing information from the Television Vanderbilt News Archive (TVNA). The TVNA contains information on daily evening news programs, including detailed sub-topics within each topic as well as the minutes dedicated to each. Focusing on the three major networks that covered the Vietnam War, I digitized the daily minutes dedicated to the Vietnam War during the evening news program as well as total airtime of the program. Finally using text analysis of sub-topics in programs related to the Vietnam War, I generate measures of pro- vs. anti-war coverage for each program. Combined with the data from the Television Factbook, my new database of Vietnam War Television Coverage and Sentiment contains measures of exposure to Vietnam War coverage by county by year. 

Scholars have documented that draft-eligible men engaged in draft-dodging behavior during the Vietnam War, including enrolling in college and entering parenthood. What factors influenced men’s behavior in avoiding enlistment? In this paper, I investigate the role of media portrayals of the Vietnam War on draft-eligible men’s enlistment behavior. Using a database I construct of television coverage and portrayal of the war (including pro- vs. anti-war coverage), I explore the effect of media coverage on two outcomes: first, the rate of volunteer enlistment using information on volunteer vs. non-volunteer enlistment from the National Archives Vietnam Conflict Extract Data file on veteran mortality records, and second, school enrollment and fertility behavior that enabled deferment from enlistment. I exploit county variation in network coverage and television access alongside changes in wartime coverage over the duration of the war to test how pro- and anti-war coverage affected the rate at which men volunteered to serve in less risky military branches, for example, the Navy as opposed to the Army, which was more prone to positioning men in the infantry. Additionally, I examine how media exposure influenced men to dodge the draft by enrolling in college and/or embarking on family formation to take advantage of the paternity deferments.