Abstract: This paper studies how heterogeneity in firms' supplier sourcing shapes the transmission of delivery uncertainty to market structure and aggregate prices. Combining U.S. shipment-level import data with port congestion data, I measure delivery uncertainty as the volatility of port waiting times. I find that large firms source from more suppliers, and their supplier counts are more sensitive to delivery uncertainty. When delivery uncertainty rises, market share shifts toward firms with more suppliers, and their markups decline less. To quantify the aggregate implications, I develop a multi-sector model with endogenous supplier choice and oligopolistic competition. Firms with more suppliers face smaller increases in expected production costs when delivery uncertainty rises and therefore gain market share; Because markups rise with market share, this reallocation amplifies the aggregate price response. Calibrated to U.S. manufacturing data, the model implies that the rise in delivery uncertainty from the pre-COVID period to 2021–22 raised aggregate prices by 6.4 percent, with endogenous markup changes accounting for about one-sixth of the increase.
Presentations: Midwest Macro Fall 2026, Midwest International Trade&Theory conference 2026, Women in Central Banking Workshop(Banco de México), CSWEP Ph.D. workshop, Midwest Macro Fall 2025(Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland), CES North America Annual conference 2026(Emory University), NYSEA Conference
with Dimin Liu [Latest version][Slides]
Abstract: We examine how time to build for capital shapes the transmission of sectoral and aggregate shocks in an economy with input-output linkages. Using granular capital project life-cycle data from India, we document substantial heterogeneity in time to build across sectors. Sectors with stronger downstream linkages—those providing important inputs to the broader economy and transmitting shocks more widely—are more capital intensive and require significantly longer time to build. We incorporate this heterogeneous time to build into a dynamic general equilibrium model with capital and input-output linkages to study its implications for business-cycle propagation. Our results show that time to build leads to faster short-run adjustment and greater persistence. Shocks to upstream sectors generate larger and more persistent aggregate effects, which are further amplified by time to build. We also show that network position and capital intensity jointly determine which sectors become key time-to-build bottlenecks.
Presentations: Econometric Society Asia 2026*(NYU Abu Dhabi), Boston College Macro Lunch Seminar, Boston College Graduate Research Symposium, University of Oxford Macro Seminar*
with Dimin Liu [Latest version][Slides]
Abstract: Capital investment projects take time to build, and their completion is often delayed. We study whether such delays propagate through production networks. Linking novel project-lifecycle data for India to firm-level data, we use extreme weather at project construction sites as exogenous shocks to project delays and trace them through product-level supplier–buyer linkages. We reach two main conclusions. First, delays propagate downstream but not upstream: when a supplier's projects are delayed, its buyers delay their own projects. Second, propagation operates through quantities rather than prices: downstream firms adjust production and input inventories while prices do not rise, and at the sectoral level output contracts without price increases. Project delays thus spread like a supply shock but affect output and prices like a demand shock.
Presentations: Econometric Society North America Summer Meeting 2026*(Emory University), Royal Economic Society 2026*
with Susanto Basu [Draft available upon request]
Abstract: We seek to understand the economics of import-price shocks in dynamic macroeconomic models, with and without nominal rigidities. We allow imported goods to be used as intermediate inputs as well as for final consumption. Under imperfect competition, measured GDP can respond differently from true value added, and import-price shocks act as cost-push shocks in a New Keynesian model. We use the model’s implications to identify import-price, monetary, and fiscal shocks in a sign-restricted VAR. We find that import price spike, expansionary monetary policy, and demand stimulus have all contributed to inflationary pressures observed since 2021, but at different points in time. The initial surge in inflation is primarily driven by the rise in import prices. However, the impact of demand-side factors on inflation becomes more significant from 2022 onward.
Presentations: European Economic Association Annual Conference 2024(Erasmus University,Rotterdam), Eastern Economic Association Conference 2024
with Adolfo Barajas,Woon Gyu Choi et al [IMF Working Paper]
Abstract: After a steady increase following the global financial crisis, private nonfinancial sector leverage rose further during the COVID-19 on the back of easy financial conditions induced by unprecedented policy support. We investigate the empirical relationships between increased leverage, financial conditions, and macro-financial stability in a sample of major advanced and emerging market economies. We find that loose financial conditions contribute to leverage buildups and generate an intertemporal tradeoff: financial stability risk is lessened in the near term but exacerbated in the medium term. The tradeoff is amplified during credit booms, when debt service burdens are particularly high, or when the share of foreign currency debt is high in emerging markets. Selected macroprudential tools can arrest leverage buildups and mitigate the tradeoff.
IMF Global Financial Stability Report, April 2027(forthcoming)
Missed the Deadline? Drivers of Project Time and Cost Overun in India
with Abhijit Sen Gupta -Asian Development Bank(ADB); Abhinav Narayanan - Reserve Bank of India (RBI); Shekhar Tomar-Indian School of Business(ISB); Jiaqi Su - Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank(AIIB)IMF Regional Economic Outlook, June 2019: Adapting to Climate Change in Sub-Saharan Africa