Scores, Targets, & Universes
Scores, Targets, & Universes
Standard Scores:
2022 DNC Dem Support V1 and V2
A 0-100% predictive score of how likely a voter is to support Democratic candidates. V2 is essentially the V1 score, but slightly updated and more real time adjusted.
2022 DNC/DCCC Clarity National Turnout V1 and V2
A 0-100% predictive score of how likely a voter is to vote in the general election. V2 is essentially the V1 score, but slightly updated and more real time adjusted.
2022 Civis College Graduate
A 0-100% predictive score of how likely a voter is a college graduate.
2022 Civis Spanish Language Preference
A 0-100% predictive score of how likely a voter prefers to speak in Spanish.
2022 Clarity Choice Support
A 0-100% predictive score of how likely a voter supports Pro-Choice policies.
2020 DNC Volunteer Propensity
A 0-100% predictive score of how likely a voter is to respond positively to a campaign engagement ask such as asking to volunteer/attend an event/etc.
Targets:
2020 General Dems Who Didn't Vote : Dems Who Didn't Vote
This target is a STATIC list of voters who were registered as Democrats and did not cast a ballot. This target will continue to track these voters even if their party registration changes.
2021 Vol Leads (Future PC Prospects) : Vol Leads (Future PC Prospects)
This target is a highly focused list of voters leveraging high support scores, high turnout, and high volunteer propensity scores. This list also includes those voters who were active volunteers in 2020. These targeted voters are intended to be those most likely to say yes to volunteer or event ask, and eventually could transition to becoming PCs. This target is not designed to be the totality of volunteer leads in a region, but rather the most likely to say yes. This will update over time as additional voters meet the criteria of the target, and voters will drop off when they become PCs.
2 AEVL Targets
2024 AEVL Target : AEVL Signup Targets
2024 AEVL Target : AEVL Dropoff Risk
The AEVL target family has 2 targets. AEVL Signup Targets is an updated version of past cycle PEVL Targets. These are Dems or Dem friendly voters whose turnout likelihood would benefit from being on the Active Early Voter List.
The AEVL Dropoff Risk is a list of all voters who have not cast an early ballot within the 2022 or 2024 election cycles and are thus at risk of dropping off the Active Early Voter List in 2025.
ExGOP
This series of targets tracks voters who have left the Republican party since the 2020 election. There are a total of 3 subtargets:
Pre-Insurrection, Post-Insurrection Registered Dems, and Post-Insurrection Registered Other.
2022 Outreach Targets
This series of targets highlights specific types of voters who may be priorities for various programs. Presently there are 5 subtargets:
Postcard Targets are voters with middling turnout likelihood without phones or other reliable contact means, making them very good targets for a postcard campaign.
Midterm Dropoff Dems is a target which includes voters who routinely vote in Presidential year General Elections but often sit out Midterm elections.
Swing Voters is a target which voters who have self identified as swing voters in the 2020 election.
ExGOP Supplemental is an additional expansion to the previous ExGOP lists, encompassing those that have left the Republican Party in 2022.
Party Donor Prospects is a list of those who might be amenable to donating to political party organizations.
2022 Dem Relational Vol Prospect
This target selects Democrats with strong support scores who live with registered Independents, making them a strong target for relational organizing efforts.
Issue Targets
This series of targets is based upon the hardest data points available from outside the Arizona Democratic data sphere. These lists are intended to identify the most substantive list of voters who would react positively to outreach on the given topic. There are currently 5 subtargets:
Prochoice Engagement Voter
Education Issue Voter
Healthcare Issue Voter
Jan 6/ Election Stealing Voter
Environmental Outreach Prospects
Environmental Issue Voter
Generic Universe Targets
This series of targets intended to provide certain outreach universes in the event your program does not already have an established one. These are not intended to replace bespoke universes, but are free to use for any/all Party Organizations. They are built in accordance with the Universe Recommendations Below.
Generic Turnout Universe
Generic Persuasion Universe
Negative Outcome Exclusions
Recommended Universes
Turnout Universe
Higher range support score (75-100) and mid-range turnout score (45 - 65)
Persuasion Universe
Higher range turnout score (75-100) and mid-range support score (60-80)
Shared Canvass Results
Canvass Result Outcomes are now visible across all Party Committees (ADP, ADLCC, M4AZ, County Parties, LD Parties) via a feature known as Canvass Results Groups. This means that you are able to pull Canvass Results from all of these committees to filter your lists. To view these results, on the Create a List Screen go to the Canvass Status drop down. When you find the Committee Drop down, you will be able to switch from your current committee and select *2022 GOTV. This will immediately allow you to see all shared canvass outcomes. You can proceed to filter further by including or excluding specific status, narrowing by date, etc.
A few things to note. This information is pooled and not committee specific. This information is real time, so it will appear as soon as contact is made or MiniVAN data is Committed. The decision of whether or not to exclude those contacted will likely depend on the nature of your program. This info is not script specific, so it will cover contact outcome only. Specific script elements like Survey Questions will need to be shared as normal.