Publications

Manuscript Under Review/For submission/In preparation

1. Bathan, A.A.L., Olaguera, L.M.P., Cruz, F.A.T., Villarin, J.R.T., Maquiling, J.T., Cambaliza, M.O.L., Manalo, J.A., Matsumoto, J., 2025. The role of the moisture conveyor belt in high precipitation events along the western coast of the Philippines during the southwest monsoon season. (Under Review; JMSJ)

2. Olaguera, L.M.P., Manalo, J.A., Matsumoto, J., 2025. The influence of the Quasi Bi-Weekly Oscillation on the Onset, Monsoon Breaks, and Rainfall Extremes during the southwest monsoon season in the Philippines. (Under Review; APJAS)

3. Olaguera, L.M.P., Bathan, A.A.L., Badua, E.K., Bañares, E.N., Petilla, C.E.R., Manalo, J.A., Cruz, F.A.T., Villarin, J.R.T., 2025. Record rainfall from the enhanced southwest monsoon in Metro Manila, Philippines: A comparative study of recent events. (Submitted; APJAS)

4. Olaguera, L.M.P., Badua, E.K., Sadama, A.D., Cruz, F.A.T., Uy, S.N., Villarin, J.R.T., Matsumoto, J., 2025. How do gridded rainfall datasets represent climate zones in the Philippines? (Submitted; SOLA)

Published Papers

1. Cruz, F. T., Narisma, G. T., Villafuerte II, M. Q., Chua, K. C.,  Olaguera, L.M.P. (2013). A climatological analysis of the southwest monsoon rainfall in the Philippines. Atmospheric Research, 122, 609-616.

2. Olaguera, L.M.P., Matsumoto, J., Kubota, H., Inoue, T., Cayanan, E. O., & Hilario, F. D. (2018). Abrupt climate shift in the mature rainy season of the Philippines in the mid-1990s. Atmosphere, 9(9), 350.

3. Olaguera, L.M.P., Matsumoto, J., Kubota, H., Inoue, T., Cayanan, E. O., & Hilario, F. D. (2018). Interdecadal shifts in the winter monsoon rainfall of the Philippines. Atmosphere, 9(12), 464.

4. Olaguera, L.M.P., and Matsumoto, J. (2019). A climatological study of the wet and dry conditions in the pre‐summer monsoon season of the Philippines. International Journal of Climatology.

5. Olaguera, L.M.P., Matsumoto, J., Dado, J. M. B., and Narisma, G. T. T. (2020). Non-tropical Cyclone Related Winter Heavy Rainfall Events over the Philippines: Climatology and Mechanisms. Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 1-17.

6. Matsumoto, J., Olaguera, L.M.P., Nguyen‐Le, D., Kubota, H., & Villafuerte, M. Q. (2020). Climatological seasonal changes of wind and rainfall in the Philippines. International Journal of Climatology.

7. Hilario M.R.A., Olaguera L.M.P., Narisma G.T., Matsumoto J. (2020). Diurnal Characteristics of Summer Precipitation over Luzon Island, Philippines. Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 1-13.

2021

8. Olaguera, L.M.P., Matsumoto, J., Kubota, H., Cayanan, E. O., Hilario, F. D. (2021). A climatological analysis of the monsoon break following the summer monsoon onset over Luzon Island, Philippines. International Journal of Climatology, 41(3), 2100-2117. 

9. Manalo, J. A., Matsumoto, J., Takahashi, H. G., Villafuerte, M. Q., Olaguera, L.M.P., Ren, G., Cinco, T. A. (2021) The Effect of Urbanization on Temperature Indices in the Philippines. International Journal of Climatology, 42: 850-867.

10. Olaguera, L.M.P., Caballar, M.E., De Mata, J.C. et al. 2021. Synoptic conditions and potential causes of the extreme heavy rainfall event of January 2009 over Mindanao Island, Philippines. Natural Hazards https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-04934-z 

11. Olaguera, L.M.P., Manalo, J.A., Matsumoto, J. 2021. Influence of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation on rainfall extremes in the Philippines. International Journal of Climatology. Manuscript available online. 

2022

12. Manalo, J.A., Matsumoto, J., Nodzu, M.I., Olaguera, L.M.P. 2022. Diurnal variability of urban heat island intensity: a case study of Metro Manila, Philippines. Geographical Reports of Tokyo Metropolitan University, 57 (2022).

13. [Book-Chapter] Olaguera, L.M.P., Cruz, F.A.T., Dado, J.M.B. and Villarin, J.R.T., 2022. Complexities of Extreme Rainfall in the Philippines. In Extreme Natural Events (pp. 129-146). Springer, Singapore. 

14. Bilang, R.G.J.P., Blanco, A.C., Santos, J.A.S. and Olaguera, L.M.P., 2022. Simulation of Urban Heat Island during a High-Heat Event Using WRF Urban Canopy Models: A Case Study for Metro Manila. Atmosphere, 13(10), p.1658.

15. Olaguera, L.M.P., Matsumoto, J., Manalo, J. 2022. The contribution of non-tropical cyclone vortices to the rainfall of the Philippines. International Journal of Climatology. 43: 1871-1885. 

2023

16. Magnaye, A.M.T., Aragon, L.G.B., Dado, J.M.B., Cruz, F.T., Olaguera, L.M.P., Narisma, G.T., Tangang, F., Juneng, L., Ngo Duc, T., Phan-Van,T., Santisirisiromboon, J., Singhruck, P., Gunawan, D., Aldrian, E., Sopaheluwakan, A. 2023. Process-based analysis of the impacts of sea surface temperature on climate in CORDEX-SEA simulations. Climate Dynamics. 61: 4749-4771.

17. Petilla, C.E., Tonga, L.P., Olaguera, L.M.P., Matsumoto, J. 2023. Changes in intensity and tracks of tropical cyclones crossing the central and southern Philippines from 1979 to 2020: An observational study. Progress in Earth and Planetary Science. 10: 32.

18. Olaguera L. M. P., et al. 2023. Observed characteristic and seasonality of the diurnal patterns of precipitation over Metro Manila, Philippines. Theoretical and Applied Climatology. 155: 1123-1138.

19. Olaguera, L.M.P., Manalo, J.A., Matsumoto, J. 2023. Climatological characteristics of the monsoon breaks during the southwest monsoon season of the Philippines. International Journal of Climatology, 43: 5001-5012.

2024

20. Tana, E.A., Olaguera, L.M.P., Llorin, A.G., Dado, J.M., Cambaliza, M.O., Cruz, F.A., Villarin, J.R.T., Matsumoto, J., 2024. Patterns and Drivers of Heavy and Extreme Hourly Rainfall Events over Metro Manila,Philippines Theoretical and Applied Climatology (Springer). 155. 5015-5029.

21. Olaguera, L.M.P., Manalo, J.A., Matsumoto, J., Bathan, A. 2024. Quantifying the Influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on Rainfall Extremes during the Northeast Monsoon Season of the Philippines. Atmospheric Science Letters (Wiley). 25: e1232.

22. Olaguera, L.M.P, Manalo, J. 2024. Objective determination of the withdrawal dates of the Habagat season of the Philippines. (Philippine Journal of Science).

23. Henson, K., Olaguera, L. M. P., Cruz, F. A., Villarin, J. R. T. 2024. The sensitivity of extreme rainfall simulations to WRF parameters during two intense southwest monsoon events in the Philippines. Asia Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Science. 60: 741-757.

24. Llorin, A. G., Olaguera, L. M. P., et al. 2024. Improved WRF simulation of surface temperature and urban heat island intensity over Metro Manila, Philippines. Atmospheric Research. 310: 107644.

25. Olaguera, L.M.P., Manalo, J. 2024. Climatological Analysis of Rainfall over Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur in eastern Mindanao—the wettest location in the Philippines. Theoretical and Applied Climatology. 155: 10069-10085.

26. Llorin, A. G, Olaguera, L. M. P., Magnaye, A. M. T., Cruz, F., Dado, J. M. B., Gozo, E. C., Topacio, X. G. V. M., Uy, S. N., Simpas, J. B. B., Villarin, J. R. T. 2024. Quantifying the influence of updated landuse/land cover in simulating urban climate: a case study of Metro Manila, Philippines. Theoretical and Applied Climatology. 1-20.

27. Visaga, S.M., Pascua, P.J., Tonga, L.P.S., Olaguera, L.M.P., et al. 2024. Application of Kalman Filter for post-processing WRF-Solar Forecasts over Metro Manila, Philippines Solar Energy (Elsevier). 283: 113050.

2025

28. Tana, E.A.S., Olaguera, L.M.P., Visaga, S.M.A., Magnaye, A.M.T., Llorin, A.G.A., Cruz, F.A.T., Villarin, J.R.T., Matsumoto, J. 2025. Assessing the performance of GSMaP and IMERG in representing the diurnal cycle of precipitation in the Philippines during the southwest monsoon season. Atmospheric Research. 107983.

29. Petilla, C.E.R., Olaguera, L.M.P., Cruz, F.A.T., Villarin, J.R.T., Matsumoto, J., Fudeyasu, H., Yoshida, R. 2025. On the unique features of Typhoon Rai (2021): An observational study. Natural Hazards. 1-25.

30. Olaguera, L.M.P., Manalo, J.A. 2025. Meteorological characteristics of the January 10 1999  Extreme Rainfall event over Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur, Philippines (Accepted; Philippine Journal of Science)

31. Bathan, A.A.L, Olaguera, L.M.P., Cruz, F.A., Villarin, J.R.T., Maquiling, J., Cambaliza, M.O.L., Manalo, J.A., Matsumoto, J. 2025. Analyzing the influence of tropical cyclones, southwest monsoon, and tropical cyclone-enhanced southwest monsoon on rainfall variability over Luzon Island, Philippines (Accepted; Atmospheric Research).

32. Petilla, C.E.R., Tonga, L.P.S., Olaguera, L.M.P., Matsumoto, J., Ngo-Duc T. 2025. Dissipation-based clustering of Landfalling Tropical Cyclones over Vietnam. Changes in Translational Speed, Intensity, and Direction of Motion (Accepted; Theoretical and Applied Climatology)

33. Ibañez, M.P.A., Manalo, J.A., Capuli, G.H., Olaguera, L.M.P. 2025. Spatio-temporal Analysis of Hail Events in the Philippines. (Accepted; Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences)

34. Olaguera, L.M.P., Badua, E.K., Llorin, A.G.A., Cruz, F.T., Villarin, J.R.T., Manalo, J.A., Villafuerte II, M.Q., Matsumoto, J. 2025. Rainfall and temperature-based Philippine climate zones using Self-Organizing Maps. (Accepted; SOLA)

35. Olaguera, L.M.P., Manalo, J.A., Matsumoto, J., Cruz, F.T., Villarin, J.R.T., 2025. An Objective Method to Locate Shear Lines during the Northeast Monsoon Season in the Philippines. (Accepted; SOLA)

Technical Reports/Book Chapter

1. Typhoon Hagupit (December 2014) Technical Report, Manila Observatory (2014)

2. Ong J.B., Lorenzo G, Olaguera L.M., Narisma G. Assessment of ground stability at the Betania Retreat House and adjacent lot of Eng. Romeo Aquino Naval Base Road, Brgy. St. Joseph, Baguio City (2016)

3. Olaguera, L.M., Cruz, F.A., Dado, J., Villarin, J.R., Complexities of extreme rainfall in the Philippines: In A.S. Unnikrishnan et al. (Eds): Extreme Natural Events, 978-981-19-2510-8, 525051_1_En, (Chapter 5)

4. Philippine Climate Change Assessment 2 (2024) The Physical Science Basis (Chapter 3) https://drive.google.com/file/d/12GpuIWKRJdJTHddLNQ4_LZMewnyOdHrP/view