This project uses an ARIMA model to forecast the unemployment rate in the United States for the year 2025. The model is built using historical unemployment data and interest rates, focusing on the period from 2000 to 2022. The project involves data cleaning, visualization, and time series forecasting.
Performing a time series forecast using the ARIMA model:
Results:
The ARIMA model forecasts the unemployment rate for the next 3 years: 2023, 2024, and 2025, based on historical data from 2000 to 2022. The predictions assume that past trends will continue. While reliable for short-term forecasting, unexpected economic events may cause deviations. In conclusion, this ARIMA model offers a reasonable estimate of future unemployment rates, but its accuracy depends on how closely future conditions match past trends.