Melting ice sheets and an ever-warming climate are crucial issues. These ice sheets, including 80% of the country of Greenland, urgently need to be preserved; if this country's 1.7 million square kilometer ice sheet melts completely, ocean levels around the world will rise and submerge low-elevation coastal areas and move inward. The ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica contain over 99 percent of Earth's freshwater (NSIDC, 2023). Monitoring vulnerable areas in southern Greenland is step one and the goal of this project. Satellite imagery is used to identify and compare areas of high albedo, high reflectance, and low albedo, low reflectance, across seven years (Kiest, 2023). These areas of high reflectance, for example, snow, mean the surface conditions are colder and areas of low reflectance, rocks or the bare surface, are warmer. Additionally, further analysis will show areas of high albedo are diminishing and being replaced by areas with low albedo. This comparison was accomplished by using a Random Trees classification which classifies high and low albedo pixels using an algorithm comparing similar pixels and probabilities. Ultimately, Greenland, and other ice sheets alike, are melting. In the seven-year window of this project, Greenland's southern glaciers are deteriorating at alarming rates. This analysis will serve as a warning that everyday practices may not affect the world now, but the future is bleak if precautions are not taken. Although this project's study area is Greenland, this analysis can be applied to other susceptible areas that are increasingly melting and will require a similar study for full comprehension.
Greenland, alongside other ice sheets across the world, arguably has one of the most important environmental impacts in history. Many people understand the world is warming and ice across the planet is melting, but to what extent? Is the country of Greenland melting? Greenland's ice sheet is the second-largest behind the Antarctic ice sheet. If both the Greenland and the Antarctic ice sheets melt, sea levels will rise by 223 feet (NSIDC, 2023). Any type of melting of the Greenland ice sheet could be detrimental to rising sea levels.
The Greenland ice sheet melting season lasts from April 1 to November 1 every year. This means Greenland is melting for 214 days every year. Greenland only has 151 days of refreezing or days of no change. Similarly, the Antarctic ice sheet melting season is the inverse of Greenland as its melting season is from November 1 to April 1. At the very end of the Antarctic ice sheet's melting season, the 40-mile-wide A23a iceberg, the world's largest, has now melted enough to move out to sea (Chappell, 2023). Given that the Antarctic ice sheet is rapidly melting and moving to warmer waters, this project aims to seek out the changes occurring to the second-largest ice sheet in the opposite hemisphere.
First and foremost, remotely sensed raster data was obtained from the United States Geological Survey (USGS). For each year, both 2015 and 2023, one raster image was brought into an R Studio environment for editing. Each image was projected into the WGS 1984 UTM Zone 23N geographic coordinate system, cropped to the same extent, and checked for equal resolution. These steps were taken using various R code to allow the software to plot all images in the same area, with the same coordinate system, and with the same scale. Once all images are similar enough, the analysis and mapping can occur.
The unedited USGS imagery from 2015 has no data, or blank holes, where the satellite malfunctioned and pixels were not recorded for these groups. These holes can be seen circled in yellow (left). Although this issue could be fixed by layering other imagery behind the original image, the method of classification will still classify these pixels regardless of the holes. Fixing this issue has little impact on the outcome of this project and was omitted in the methodology.
A digital elevation model (DEM) was obtained from the National Aerospace and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS). A DEM is the measurement of laser scanning of Earth's surface. A suborbital device sends a laser to the surface and records the time it takes the laser to return. This is then used to calculate the height of the surface and then turned into a DEM.
The DEM was corrected, however, in a different manner than the USGS imagery. Although the USGS imagery contains pixels of no data ("NA" values that appear as transparent holes on the map) and cannot be corrected, the DEM NA values can. The "holes" in the map were isolated and compared to neighboring pixels. Then the NA pixels were given the mean pixel values of these surrounding pixels. Next, the isolated clumps are then remapped with the rest of the DEM. This was then remapped to create the full DEM which could then be used to make a mask for the USGS imagery. Lastly, a mask for each image was created and applied to minimize noise throughout the images.
Isolated "clump" of mean pixel value of surrounding pixels
New DEM with isolated clumps that have the proper values assigned
Full DEM with corrected holes
On certain days, pixels may reflect differently and thus have different color values despite representing the same land cover. To combat this, both files were obtained in the last week of October to reduce seasonal differences, however, the images are seven years apart. Each image was also normalized based on the 2023 image's color scale and corrected so that the colors of the pixels reflect the same land cover when appropriate. After correcting the color of the differing images' pixels, the images were corrected topographically. Since Greenland is a higher latitude country, the Sun's shadow over high altitude areas, such as mountains or tall glaciers, is much larger and will darken the pixel's color which can confuse the classification. A topographic correction was assessed using the Sun's azimuth angle and elevation angle on each day the image was captured respectively. Lastly, a mask for each corrected image was created using the corrected DEM and applied to minimize noise throughout the images.
The next step taken was to classify the images. Both images were imported to ESRI's ArcGIS Pro software. The images were then classified using training samples. For each image, samples were hand-drawn to give the algorithm test pixels. These test pixels are then used to classify pixels of similar values to create the entire classification. Three classes were assigned: Water, Snow, and Ice Sheet.
2015 Training Sample
Legend of the 2015 classes whose colors correspond to the training sample colors on the image
2023 Training Samples
Legend of the 2023 classes whose colors correspond to the training sample colors on the image
Once the training samples were saved, the Random Trees classification tool was run in ArcGIS Pro. Random Trees classification takes each pixel, on a case-by-case basis, and compares it to the pixels in the training samples. The classification then used 50 decision trees with a maximum depth of 30 to vote on which class the pixel belongs in. The majority vote of all 50 decision trees decides the classification. This iterated through every pixel of both images until a final classification was reached and mapped.
Both images were then taken from ArcGIS Pro and used in R Studio for further analysis. These images were analyzed using a Sankey Network Diagram to show the flow of land cover classes. This diagram shows the change in land cover classes from 2015 and which land cover classes they are currently in 2023. A supplemental change plot was created to determine the extent of the land cover change in the form of a graph.
As seen above, the diagram plots the land cover change from 2015 to 2023. The left shows the classes of 2015 and the right shows the classes of 2023.
The plot on the left shows both the growth and loss of the classes from 2015 to 2023. The water had the biggest growth, whereas the ice sheet grew slightly in size. The only class with any loss is the snow class.
The results of this project show that Greenland is melting. The Random Trees classification shows an evident issue of melting. The classification illuminates the depleted snow cover and growing waterways. Furthermore, the Sankey Diagram and change plot highlight the extent of this melting problem. The snow has the heaviest loss that has been converted mostly to water. The water had the largest increase as approximately half of the snow class from 2015 is now water. The ice sheet has marginally grown in size, however, this does not offset the loss of snow cover and increasing water levels. This project confirms Greenland is indeed melting as seen by each image taken at the end of each melting season corroborated by the additional analyses.
Ultimately, our ice sheets are more important than most comprehend. Small amounts of melting have the potential to submerge cities such as Venice or New Orleans. These results provide a warning to officials and citizens around the world to practice better environmental habits and to be conscious of keeping the climates cool.
Berwyn, B. (2020, November 30). Going, going ... gone: Greenland’s melting ice sheet passed a point of no return in the early 2000s. Inside Climate News. https://insideclimatenews.org/news/15082020/greenland-ice-sheet-melt-climate-change/
Chappell, B. (2023, December 1). The iceberg cometh: It’s the size of Oahu, and it’s moving into the Open Ocean. NPR. https://www.npr.org/2023/12/01/1215141574/antarctica-iceberg-a23a-location
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