Between-Host

Epidemiology

Preparation for outbreaks of emerging infectious diseases is often predicated on beliefs that we will be

able to understand the epidemiological nature of an outbreak early into its inception. However, since

many rare emerging diseases exhibit different epidemiological behaviors from outbreak to outbreak,

early and accurate estimation of the epidemiological situation may not be straightforward in all cases.

We developed a mathematical model to explore the hypothetical scenario that

some (re)emerging diseases may actually be able to maintain stable, endemic circulation successfully in

an entirely asymptomatic state. Extending our model to include the movements of humans between

geographic patches is a logical next step in understanding this phenomenon.

Epidemiolocial-Immunogical Models

My interests in epidemiology also lie in unifying between-host and within-host models for more wider

strategies for disease control and prevention. In this effect, I am currently developing a within-host

model for Johne’s disease cattle. The model outputs will be used as inputs for another between-host

model for Johne’s disease, and such that the dynamics of the two models become complementary. One

main objective of this study is to be able to optimize vaccination protocol for susceptible individuals,

while at the same time providing optimal protocol for control or treatment of the infected individuals.