Last update: March 19 2018

Frederico Belo

US Bancorp Professor in Financial Markets and Institutions
Associate Professor of Finance
University of Minnesota
Carlson School of Management
321 19th Ave S
Minneapolis, MN, 55455 USA
office: 3-233

Research Associate, National Bureau of Economic Research

Ph.D. Coordinator (Finance Area)


My SSRN page here

My Google Scholar page here


Production-Based Measures of Risk for Asset Pricing, 2010, Journal of Monetary Economics, 57(2), 146-163.  (Data and Internet Appendix)

The Inventory Growth Spread (with Xiaoji Lin), 2012, Review of Financial Studies, 25 (1), 278-313.

Government Spending, Political Cycles and the Cross Section of Stock Returns (with Vito Gala and Jun Li), 2013, Journal of Financial Economics, 107(2), 305-324 Slides

- Winner of 2011 Crowell Memorial Prize (third prize), PanAgora Asset Management

- Media: Financial Times (Oct. 31, 2012); Financial Times (Nov. 3, 2012);

- Summary at Business Strategy Review, Vol. 24, Issue 2, pp. 76-77, 2013. Executive summary here

Government Investment and the Stock Market (with Jianfeng Yu), 2013, Journal of Monetary Economics, 60(3), 325-339. Online appendix

A Supply Approach to Valuation (with Chen Xue and Lu Zhang), 2013, Review of Financial Studies, 26 (12), 3029-3067. Online appendix

Brand Capital and Firm Value (with Maria Ana Vitorino and Xiaoji Lin), 2014, Review of Economic Dynamics, 17(1) 150-169

Labor Hiring, Investment and Stock Return Predictability in the Cross Section (with Xiaoji Lin and Santiago Bazdresch), 2014, Journal of Political Economy, 122(1), 129-177. Online appendix

Dividend Dynamics and the Term Structure of Dividend Strips (with Bob Goldstein and Pierre Collin-Dufresne), 2014, Journal of Finance, 70(3), 1115-1160. Online appendix

Labor-Force Heterogeneity and Asset Prices: the Importance of Skilled Labor (with Xiaoji Lin, Jun Li and Xiaofei Zhao), 2017, Review of Financial Studies30(10), 3669–3709. Online appendix

    Industry level labor skill data here

Working Papers

External Equity Financing Shocks, Financial Flows, and Asset Prices (with Xiaoji Lin and Fan Yang) (August 2017) Online appendix

The Opposing Effects of Information Complexity and Information Content on Return Volatility (with Jun Li, Xiaoji Lin, and Xiaofei Zhao) (January 2018) (2015 Crowell Memorial Prize - 2nd prize)

Decomposing Firm Value (with Vito GalaJohn Pokorny, and Juliana Salomao) (March 2018)

Drafts in Preparation

Labor Hiring and Aggregate Discount Rates (with Andres Donangelo, Xiaoji Lin and Ding Luo) (February 2017) – Presented at the AFA 2018

On the Stock Return and Investment Return Correlation Puzzle (with Yao Deng) (November 2017)

A Supply-Side Interpretation of the Term Structure of Interest Rates

Technological Diversification and Asset Prices (with Vasco Carvalho) (September 2012)


University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School

Corporate Finance (Honors Sections) (UG): Fall 2011 (Average Teaching Evaluation: 3.5 on a 0-4 scale – Evaluation report here)

University of Minnesota, Carlson School of Management

   Quantitative Portfolio Analysis (MSF): 2017 (Average Teaching Evaluation: 5.8 out of 6)

Portfolio Management and Performance Evaluation (UG): 2006-2017 (Average Teaching Evaluation: 5.7 out of 6)

Empirical Methods in Finance (Ph.D.): Spring 2007-2010, 2014 , 2016 (Average Teaching Evaluation: 5.8 out of 6)

Theory of Capital Markets (Ph.D.): Fall 2007-2010 (Average Teaching Evaluation: 5.8 out of 6)

Advanced Asset Pricing Readings (Ph.D.): Fall 2010, 2012, 2015, 2017 (Average Teaching Evaluation: N.A.)

Finance Ph.D coordinator: 2015-today


Professional Discussions

 "Political Cycles and Stock Returns" by Lubos Pastor and Pietro Veronesi, University of Minnesota Macro-Finance Conference, May 2017

 "Horizontal and Vertical Polarization: Task-Specific Technological Change in a Multi-Sector Economy" by Sang Yoon Lee and Yongseok Shin, 7th Advances in Macro-Finance Tepper-LAEF Conference, Sep 2016

 "Labor Leverage and the Value Spread” by Andres Donangelo, Francois Gourio, and Miguel Palacios, 17th Annual Texas Finance Festival, University of Texas at Austin, April 2015

 "Local Risk, Local Factors, and Asset Prices" by Selale Tuzel and Miao (Ben) Zhang, Western Finance Association, June 2014

 "Technological Innovation, Resource Allocation and Growth" by Leonid Kogan, Dimitris Papanikolaou, Amit Seru, and Noah Stoffman, University of Minnesota Macro-Finance Conference, May 2014

 "A Labor Capital Asset Pricing Model" by Lars-Alexander Kuehn, Mikhail Simutin and Jessie Wang, American Finance Association, Jan 2014

 "Product Market Competition, R&D Investment and Stock Returns" by Lifeng Gu, Western Finance Association, June 2013

 "Production-Based Term Structure of Equity Returns" by Hengjie Ai, Mariano M. Croce, Anthony M. Diercks and Kai Li, SFS Cavalcade, May 2013

 "Volatility, the Macroeconomy and Asset Prices" by Ravi Bansal, Dana Kiku, Ivan Shaliastovich, and Amir Yaron, University of Minnesota Macro-Finance Conference, May 2013

 "The Impact of Fiscal Policy on Stock Returns” by Zhi Da, Mitch Warachka, and Hayong Yun, 5th Annual Florida State University SunTrust Beach Conference, April 2013

"Investment-based Momentum Profits" by Laura Liu and Lu Zhang, University of Minnesota Macro-Finance Conference, May 2011 

"Credit Conditions and Expected Stock Returns" by Sudheer Chava, Michael Gallmeyer and Heungju Park, European Finance Association 2010, Aug 2010

"Asset Pricing and Housing Supply in a Production Economy" by Ivan Jaccard, Western Finance Association, July 2010

"The out-of-sample Performance of Long-Run Risk Models" by Wayne Ferson, Suresh Nallareddy and Biqin Xie, First World Finance Conference, May 2010

 "Investors' Compensation for Illiquidity - Evidence from the German Stock Market'' by M. Bank, M. Larch and G. Peter, First World Finance Conference, May 2010

"The Federal Reserve and the Cross Section of Stock Returns" by Erica Li and Francisco Palomino, Western Finance Association, July 2009

"The Demographics of Innovation and Asset Returns" by Nicolae Garleanu, Leonid Kogan and Stavros Panageas, University of Minnesota Macro-Finance Conference,  May 2009

 "Mutual Fund Tax Clienteles" by Clemens Sialm and Laura Starks, ISCTE Business School – Nova Annual Finance Conference on Mutual Funds and Investment Management, April 2008

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