Research

My current research interests concern macroeconomics; in particular, I’m interested in the effects of government policy over the business cycle and in the determinants of the shadow economy. 

Publications

1. "Does it Spark Joy? Reworking Macroeconomics in a Principles of Economics Course." The American Economist 69(2), 259-70, 2024.

2. "Measuring the Size of the Shadow Economy using a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model," with Valeska Kohan and Yingtong Xie. In Routledge Handbook of the Informal Economy, ed. Ceyhun Elgin, 250-60, London, Routledge, 2024.

3. "DGE-Based Estimates of the Shadow Economy: Is the Informal Economy an Escape Valve?" with Valeska Kohan and Yingtong Xie. In Routledge Handbook of the Informal Economy, ed. Ceyhun Elgin, 250-60, London, Routledge, 2024.

4. "On the Decline in the Magnitude of the Expenditure Multiplier," with Jesús Rodríguez-López. Macroeconomic Dynamics 28(6), 1313-45, 2024. (Media: Nada Es Gratis.)

5. “Measuring the Size and Dynamics of U.S. State-Level Shadow Economies using a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model with Trends,” with Emily Marshall, James Saunoris, and Trang Do. Journal of Macroeconomics 75, Article Number 103491, 2023.

6. "Response to 'Comment on Measuring the Size of the Shadow Economy using a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model with Trends'," with Yingtong Xie. Econ Journal Watch 19(1), 133-41, 2022.

7. "A (Pedagogical) Note on the Log-linearization of Functions of Several Variables." International Review of Economics Education 37, Article Number 200210, 2021.

8. "Yes We Can! Teaching DSGE Models to Undergraduate Students." Journal of Economic Education 49(3), 226-36, 2018. 

9. "Measuring the Size of the Shadow Economy using a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model with Trends," with Yingtong Xie. Journal of Macroeconomics 56, 258-75, 2018.

10. "Accounting for Spanish Business Cycles," with Jesús Rodríguez-López. Macroeconomic Dynamics 20(3), 685-714, 2016. Additional content: unpublished technical appendix and Matlab codes (ZIP file).

11. "Tax Enforcement, Technology, and the Informal Sector," with Ceyhun Elgin, Economic Systems 39(1), 97-120, 2015. Additional content: Matlab codes (ZIP file).

12. “Public Trust, Taxes, and the Informal Sector,” with Ceyhun Elgin, Boǧaziçi Journal Review of Social, Economic and Administrative Studies 26(1), 27-44, 2012.

13. “La Distribución de las Participaciones a las Entidades Federativas en México: Simulaciones de un Esquema Alternativo,” with Jorge Ibarra and Alfredo Sandoval. Gestión y Política Pública 12(1), 129-77, 2003.

Working papers

1. "From IS-LM-PC to AD-AS in Blanchard’s Macroeconomics Textbook," July 2024. (Revision requested at the Journal of Economic Education.)

2. "Corrigendum to: 'Measuring the Size of the Shadow Economy using a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model with Trends,'" with Yingtong Xie, February 2022. (This is an expanded version of the Econ Journal Watch publication.)

3. "Is GDP More Volatile in Developing Countries after Taking the Shadow Economy into Account? Evidence from Latin America," with Yingtong Xie, 2017. Additional content: online technical appendix and Matlab/Dynare codes (ZIP file). 

Work in progress

1. Macroeconomic Modeling, under contract with Cambridge University Press. 2024.

2. "Employment Volatility and the Cyclicality of Labor Productivity: The Case of Spain," with Jesús Rodríguez-López, 2024.

3. “Why is the Expenditure Multiplier Smaller in Developing Economies? The Role of the Shadow Economy,” with Krastina Dzhambova, 2024.

4. "Si Vis Pacem, Para Bellum," with Jesús Rodríguez-López, 2024.

5. "Search and Matching Frictions in an Informal Economy World," 2024.

6. "Fiscal Policy News and the Business Cycle," 2024.

7. "Fiscal Rules and Expectations," 2024.

8. "News Shocks from a Cross-Country Perspective," with Ceyhun Elgin, 2018.

Other works

• "Fluctuaciones y crecimiento económico en España," with Jesús Rodríguez-López, eXtoikos 9, 37-41, 2013.

• "Antidumping practices in Mexico," with Gerardo Esquivel, 2002.

Last updated: 12/01/2024.