Embedded Files
Bulletin 17C
Bulletin 17C
The Guidelines for determining flood flow frequency—Bulletin 17C were published online by the U.S. Geological Survey on March 29, 2018 and are available from the USGS. A minor revision (version 1.1) was released May 31, 2019 (corrections to Appendix 8 - MOVE example).
The Hydrologic Frequency Analysis Work Group (HFAWG) has revised the US National Flood Frequency Guidelines. As presented (England et al., H51Q) at the AGU Fall 2013 meeting, this revision is called Bulletin 17C. At the ASCE EWRI 2016 Congress, we presented an overview of Bulletin 17C as part of a panel session on the 17C revisions.
The purpose of this page is to provide information to the flood hazard community for several areas related to these revisions. Main topics are listed in the table of contents at the top pf this page.
If you would like to help or be involved in future revisions, please contact me.
Some background information on these revisions can also be found in meeting minutes, documents, and other materials available on the HFAWG web page. Most of the people that were involved in this effort are listed on the HFAWG member page; we also have help and support from several of Jery Stedinger's current and former graduate students, especially Jonathan Lamontagne and Veronica Webster.
Web Page REVISIONS in progress 31-Aug-2021; migration to new google sites - many links need repairs and fixing.
St Vrain Creek, Lyons, Colorado, September 2013 flood
Diverse Data useful with EMA/17C
While retaining the basic structure of Bulletin 17B that uses the method of moments in log-space with the log-Pearson Type III (LP3) distribution and weighted skew coefficient, the HFAWG recommended the adoption of several corrections and extensions to those procedures. Most of these revisions that are in Bulletin 17C follow from the list of needed research included in Bulletin 17A and 17B. All of the changes found in Bulletin 17C are in the spirit of the procedures that were in Bulletin 17B.
Revisions
Historical Information, Low Outliers, Interval Data and Zero flows. Replace the Historical Weighting Procedure and the Conditional Probability Adjustment (CPA) with an Expected Moments Algorithm (EMA) analysis when such special procedures are needed.
Low Outlier Identification. Generalize the simple Grubbs-Beck outlier test recommended in Bulletin 17B with the new Multiple Grubbs-Beck test (MGBT) (Cohn et al., 2013a,b; Lamontagne et al., 2013) for the identification of potentially influential low flows.
Confidence Intervals. Replace the confidence interval formulas in Bulletin 17B which neglect the uncertainty in the estimated coefficient of skewness with a computation based on an EMA analysis, that includes skewness uncertainty and reflects historical information and low outlier adjustments based on Cohn et al. (2001) and subsequent numerical improvements for large skews.
Derivation of Regional Skew. Revise statements in Bulletin 17B on the derivation of a regional skewness estimator and its precision to reflect recent advances in regional statistical analyses.
Plotting Positions. Replace the single threshold historical plotting position with the multiple-threshold plotting positions suggested by Hirsch and Stedinger (1987).
Climate Change. Replace the outdated statements in Bulletin 17B on “Climate Trends” with a revised statement reflecting the current understanding of climate variability and climate change.
Expected Probability. Remove the discussion of Expected Probability from Bulletin 17B. The method is no longer used.
Why Change?
The use of EMA has three advantages.
EMA is the reasonable extension of the Bulletin 17B LP3 method of moments approach to deal in a consistent statistical framework with ALL of the sources of information likely to be available. For simple cases with only a systematic record and a regional skew, the EMA algorithm reverts to the method of moments recommended in Bulletin 17B.
EMA deals with interval and multiple threshold data that CPA and the Historical Weighted-Moments procedures in Bulletin 17B do not. This new capability allows use of an expanded data set as well as describing better what is actually known. Crest-stage gages and sites with historical information yield observations that are best described by intervals, where thresholds often change over time.
Adoption of EMA will provide confidence intervals (CIs) that include skew uncertainty, which is neglected in Bulletin 17B, and will reflect the information provided by observations described by different intervals, for which Bulletin 17B has no option.
The Recommended Revisions to Bulletin 17B memorandum, submitted to the Subcommittee on Hydrology, describes the changes that are made, and includes additional details. Table 1 (page 4) of the memo lists report sections in Bulletin 17B and recommended changes; Table 2 (page 5) lists the Appendix sections and recommended changes. See also Stedinger and Griffis (2008).
Flood Data with Multiple Thresholds
New Confidence Intervals include Skew Uncertainty
Use of MGBT Reduces Influence of Low Floods
Bulletin 17C Report
The Bulletin 17C report is available from the USGS Publications Warehouse.
An Archive of Public Review Materials is available on the Bulletin 17C web page.
Refer to the Subcommittee on Hydrology - Hydrologic Frequency Analysis Bulletin 17C web page to obtain the report, software links, appendix materials, and additional details.
Bulletin 17C Appendix Materials
Appendix 4 - Initial Data Analysis includes example text files and an R script.
Appendix 8 - Record Extension with Nearby Sites - example to be added.
Appendix 10 - Flood Frequency Examples includes seven examples; input and output text files used with USGS PeakFQ and peakfqSA are provided. USACE HEC-SSP provides example files distributed with that software.
Regional Skew Information is available through the Bulletin 17C Flood Frequency Resources web page.
Software that Implements LP-III/EMA methods in Bulletin 17C
USGS PeakFQ version 7.2 USGS Peak-Flow Frequency Analysis software (MS Windows GUI)
PeakfqSA-usace - stand-alone (console) software for Linux and Windows with quantiles for dam safety
HEC-SSP - USACE Statistical Software Package that includes Bulletin 17C methods (MS Windows GUI)
We list a brief chronology of some flood frequency studies that are relevant to the Bulletin 17C improvements. The focus is on EMA development history, as it retains the basic method of moments and LP3 distribution from Bulletin 17B. We note that most of this work listed here has been done by current and former members of HFAWG and collaborators. See further details in Griffis and Stedinger (2007a) and Stedinger and Griffis (2008), and the citations with links to publications (as available) listed in the References and Documents section.
1986
Stedinger and Cohn (1986) demonstrate the limitations of the Bulletin 17B historical weighting approach.
1987
Lane (1987) shows the Bulletin 17B historical weighting approach is ineffective for longer records with paleoflood information (Pecos River, NM)
Hirsch and Stedinger (1987) develop an improved plotting position formula, appropriate for data with multiple thresholds
1991
Chowdhury and Stedinger (1991) provide improved confidence interval formulas that include weighted skew estimators
1995
Lane (1995) provides conceptual development of EMA for historical weighting, to replace the Bulletin 17B historical weighting approach
1996
Lane and Cohn (1996) describe EMA with the log Normal and LP3 distributions
1997
Cohn et al. (1997) present the EMA/LP3 and show it is more efficient and flexible than the Bulletin 17B historical weighting approach, using Monte Carlo simulation
1998
England (1998) shows EMA works well for historical and paleoflood data and multiple thresholds, using data from 36 sites and Monte Carlo simulation
1999
England (1999) develops EMA/LP3 software; beginning of extensive use by Bureau of Reclamation staff for dam safety flood hazard studies
Lane suggests censoring low outliers with fixed percentiles with EMA, as part of the USACE Upper Mississippi flood frequency study
National Research Council (NRC, 1999) recommends EMA/LP3 as an appropriate flood frequency method for floodplain management, demonstrated for the American River near Sacramento, California
2000
Blainey (2000) uses EMA to show the value of paleoflood information in flood frequency
2001
Cohn et al. (2001) derive and present confidence intervals for EMA/LP3 including skew uncertainty, and show that Bulletin 17B confidence intervals do not contain the proper coverage
2003
England et al. (2003a) show that EMA/LP3 outperforms the Bulletin 17B historical weighting procedure for extreme floods, and is robust using GEV simulated data
England et al. (2003b) demonstrate EMA/LP3 performs well with real data, including multiple threshold and interval data
Griffis (2003) shows the benefits of EMA with regional skew and low outliers, and demonstrates with real data sets
Griffis et al. (2003) describe initial EMA improvements with low outliers and regional skew
2004
Griffis et al. (2004) demonstrate EMA/LP3 with regional skew and low outlier adjustments outperforms Bulletin 17b methods
2005
Stedinger and England (2005) present a summary of recent ideas and provide some suggested changes to the statistical procedures in Bulletin 17B, and initiate discussions with HFAWG to revise Bulletin 17B
2007
HFAWG begins testing comparisons of EMA and B17B
2008
Initial work on generalizing the Grubbs-Beck low outlier and low flood detection and treatment by Cohn, England and Steinberger
2009
Draft HFAWG testing report results (82 sites) by England, Cohn, and Steinberger shows low outlier issues with EMA
2010
EMA Multiple Grubbs Beck Test and Potentially Influential Low Floods (PILFs) concepts, equations, and initial testing completed
2011
Stedinger and Griffis (2011) provide extensions of the LP3 model to include changes in flood risk over time, addressing climate variability and change
Olsen (2011) summarizes agreement between USACE, USGS and Reclamation on Bulletin 17B revisions
2012
Lamontagne and Stedinger complete additional MGBT testing and algorithm refinements
Cohn begins improvement of EMA confidence intervals for large skews
USGS beta software PeakFQ version 7.0 with EMA for HFAWG testing
2013
Substantial MGBT testing completed by Lamontagne et al. (2013), showing the MGBT algorithm
HFAWG evaluations and comparison testing of EMA and Bulletin 17B nears completion; draft report issued (Cohn et al., 2013a)
Cohn et al. (2013b) MGBT paper presents p-values for identifying multiple potentially influential low floods
USGS makes updates and revisions to PeakfqSA and PeakFQ software
2014
HFAWG beings efforts to write Bulletin 17C and develop outreach and training materials
USGS releases PeakFQ software with EMA as an option
USGS also publishes a Fact Sheet and a FAQ on EMA
2015
HFAWG releases draft Bulletin 17C for peer review and continues to develop outreach and training materials
2016
ASCE EWRI Training Course - Bulletin 17C/EMA
USACE HEC releases HEC-SSP 2.1 with EMA
Draft Bulletin 17C sent to USGS Technical Reviewers
2017
Draft Bulletin 17C submitted to USGS Editorial Review
Final draft Bulletin 17C submitted to Subcommittee on Hydrology and USGS Director for approval
2018
Bulletin 17C published
2019
EMA/B17B Testing report published
Bulletin 17C version 1.1 released (revised May 31; corrections to Appendix 8 MOVE)
USACE HEC releases HEC-SSP 2.2 (June) with EMA for flow volumes
We list a brief chronology of some flood frequency applications with EMA/LP3 that are relevant to the Bulletin 17C improvements. These practical studies demonstrate that the revisions to Bulletin 17B are effective, and are needed to adequately address the complex flood frequency problems in the United States.
1999
NRC (1999) American River, California flood frequency study
England (1999) seven flood frequency examples distributed with EMA software
2000
Jarrett and Tomlinson (2000) regional paleofloods and flood frequency with EMA/LP3 in northwestern Colorado
Goldman uses EMA with 50% censoring as part of sensitivity studies for the USACE Upper Mississippi Flow Frequency Study (see Appendix A)
2002
Blainey et al. (2002) use EMA/LP3 and five sites with paleoflood records and Monte-Carlo simulation to explore bias and value of paleoflood information with measurement error
2003
Curtis and Whitney (2003) use EMA/LP3 to estimate flood frequency and explore erosion along the Canadian River, Oklahoma
2004
EMA/LP3 with historical flood data and paleoflood information on the Pecos River, hydrologic hazard for Brantley Dam, New Mexico, Bureau of Reclamation dam safety (England and Collins, 2004)
2006
EMA/LP3 included as a recommended method in Bureau of Reclamation Hydrologic Hazard guidelines
EMA/LP3 used with paleofloods as a basis for extreme flood rainfall-runoff model calibration, Arkansas River, Pueblo Flood Hazard study, Bureau of Reclamation dam safety (England et al., 2006)
2009
Sutley et al. (2009) use EMA/LP3 with paleofloods and a stochastic model for the Trinity Dam, California hydrologic hazard study
2010
EMA/LP3 utilized for unregulated flood frequency estimates used in sediment transport and levee assessments, Middle Rio Grande, New Mexico (Wright, 2010)
2011
Harden et al. (2011) use EMA/LP3 for flood frequency at several sites within the Black Hills, South Dakota
Parrett et al. (2011) used EMA/LP3 in developing regional skew estimates and in flood frequency for California
2012
Gotvald et al. (2012) use EMA/LP3 (with MGBT) and regional regression to estimate new flood frequency relations for California
Novembre et al. (2012) use EMA/LP3 as part of the Altus Dam Hydrologic Hazard study for the Bureau of Reclamation
Lamontagne et al. (2012) use EMA/LP3 to estimate regional skew coefficients for n-day rain flood frequency analysis in the Central Valley, California
2013
Eash et al. (2013) use EMA/LP3 (with MGBT) and regional regression to estimate new flood frequency relations for Iowa
2014-present
Numerous applications by USGS - flow frequency and regression reports
Numerous applications by USACE, Bureau of Reclamation, and others
Data and Methods
The revisions in Bulletin 17C have been subjected to various kinds of testing. This testing includes evaluating EMA and Bulletin 17B using peak-flow data from 82 sites within the U.S. and Monte-Carlo experiments. In addition, numerous technical papers and applications studies describe the performance and use of EMA/LP3, demonstrating that EMA/LP3 is effective for flood frequency analysis.
The overall testing plan is described in HFAWG (2007). Along with testing, HFAWG members have conducted outreach presentations and papers to communicate the Bulletin 17B revisions, testing plan, and results.
The peak-flow data used for testing is summarized in a spreadsheet.
As part of testing, two software packages were used - PeakfqSA and a beta version of USGS PeakFQ. Input and output files for the 82 data sets used in testing are available here for PeakfqSA and here for PeakFQ. These files are provided so that the results shown in the testing report can be reproduced.
Evaluation Report
The HFAWG has completed a testing report and released a final version (2019), titled Evaluation of Recommended Revisions to Bulletin 17B (Cohn et al., 2019). The original draft report was submitted to the Subcommittee on Hydrology in August 2013, as part of the basis for the recommended revisions to Bulletin 17B. The report was revised in April 2014 to include additional PILF censoring at the 25th percentile. This final report incorporates comments from HFAWG members and from USGS peer reviewers.
The Evaluation report results demonstrate that flood quantile estimators proposed as a revision of Bulletin 17B:
perform generally as well as, and in some cases much better than, Bulletin 17B estimators in terms of the Mean Square Error (MSE) of food quantiles estimates;
allow for incorporation and appropriate statistical treatment of more general types of flood-frequency information; and
generally confirm earlier studies and the theoretical findings, reported in the hydrological literature, that would support use of more sophisticated estimation procedures that have been developed since 1982 when Bulletin 17B was published.
Some figures from the Evaluation Report
Presentations and outreach, on issues related to the Bulletin 17B revisions, are listed here. This list generally includes technical presentations on EMA, plotting positions, low outliers, applications, etc. See the HFAWG Minutes page for presentations and topics of discussion at HFAWG meetings.
For those presentations given at conferences, where a paper was published (such as at ASCE EWRI), see the list in the References and Documents section for a full citation. Links are provided to download papers if they available.
1995
Lane (1995) presents EMA concepts to HFAWG.
1996
Lane and Cohn (1996) present EMA concepts at ASCE North America Water and Environment Congress
England presents preliminary M.S. thesis results with EMA "The Incorporation of Historical and Paleohydrologic Data into Flood Frequency Analysis" at the Sixteenth USCOLD Annual Meeting and Lecture, Los Angeles, July 22-26
1997
EMA concepts presented at a public meeting on American River Flood Frequency hosted by USACE, Bureau of Reclamation and SAFCA, Sacramento, California
1998
EMA, historical information and plotting positions presented at the Second Federal Interagency Hydrologic Modeling Conference, Las Vegas (England et al., 1998)
2000
England (2000) presents EMA concepts and software at ASCE Joint Conference on Water Resources Engineering and Water Resources Planning and Management in Minneapolis
2007
England and Cohn (2007) present Bulletin 17B revision ideas and testing framework at ASCE EWRI in Tampa
Griffis and Stedinger (2007b) present LP3 with climate change and variability concepts at ASCE EWRI in Tampa
2008
England and Cohn (2008) present initial test results on EMA revisions to Bulletin 17B at ASCE EWRI in Honolulu
Griffis (2008) presents EMA with low outliers and historical information at ASCE EWRI in Honolulu
Thomas et al. (2008) present plans to revise Bulletin 17B at Association of State Flood Plain Managers Annual Conference, Reno
Stedinger et al. (2008) present Bulletin 17B revisions at the Floodplain Management Association Annual Conference, San Diego
2009
USGS conducts flood frequency training course, including EMA (October)
2010
Thomas et al. (2010) present Bulletin 17B revision plans at the Fourth Federal Interagency Hydrologic Modeling Conference, Las Vegas
2013
USGS hosts webinars on PeakFQ (April, May)
USGS conducts flood frequency training course, including EMA (July)
England et al. (2013) present revisions to Bulletin 17B at the AGU Fall meeting
2014
HFAWG presentations
2015
SOH presentations and outreach
2016
ASCE EWRI (May 2016) Bulletin 17C Overview - Panel Presentation
ASCE EWRI (May 2016) Short Course
2017
2018
ASCE Civil Engineering Magazine (March 2018) News release - Updated Flood-Frequency Guidelines
ASCE EWRI (June 2018) Bulletin 17C Overview presentation
ASCE EWRI (June 2018) Bulletin 17C Workshop- training
2019
American Institute of Hydrology (AIH) Summer 2019 Newsletter highlight
SEDHYD (June 2019) Bulletin 17C Workshop- training
Flood Frequency Software
Flood frequency software that implements the Bulletin 17C recommended methods - EMA/LP3 with interval data, historical/paleoflood data, MGBT for low outliers, regional skew weighting, confidence limits, etc., is available from USACE and USGS.
Tim Cohn (USGS) was the principal author of the core EMA routines used in the software. Several HFAWG members and collaborators have been heavily involved in testing, research, and development of the software.
There are several software packages available that may be used to apply the recommended Bulletin 17C methods.
A USACE version of PeakfqSA, that includes extreme quantiles for dam safety and nuclear facilities is available (includes Fortran source code, compile instructions, executables, examples, manual) by John England. It is a stand-alone (console) version of EMA/LP3 available for Linux, MS Windows 7/10, and Macbook (High Sierra, Version 10.13.4). It is based on the last version of PeakfqSA written by Tim Cohn. The manual is a bit dated and will eventually be revised. A public repository for PeakfqSA on GitHub is under development.
The USGS has released PeakFQ version 7.3 that implements the recommended methods in Bulletin 17C, including EMA, interval data, MGBT, and new confidence intervals. This software works on Microsoft Windows 7/8/10.
The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center has revised the HEC-SSP software to include Bulletin 17C methods. Most recently, HEC-SSP version 2.2 has been released in June 2019. The software includes Bulletin 17C examples, volume frequency with EMA, and other features.
Reclamation has used flood frequency with EMA/LP3 for many site-specific studies since the late 1990s. This software has been called "EMA" (England, 1999) and "EMFREQ" (England, 2000), and relies on much of the EMA routines developed by Tim Cohn. EMFREQ version 1.2 (2007, WinXP) has seen extensive use and application with historical and paleoflood data for dam safety applications (see Applications). The software contained the single GBT low outlier test and confidence intervals from Cohn et al. (2001). It is mentioned here only for reference and history and is no longer supported, because the software does not include all the Bulletin 17C revisions, including MGBT and improved confidence intervals. The Reclamation EMA user manual (England, 1999) does not currently describe all the features in that version.
Training
A technical workshop on Bulletin 17C was held at the SEDHYD 2019 conference on June 24, 2019. The Technical Workshop agenda is available here. The Bulletin17C SEDHYD workshop presentations are available here.
A technical workshop on Bulletin 17C was held at the ASCE EWRI 2018 conference on Thursday June 7, 2018. The Technical Workshop agenda is available here. A Quiz on EMA Flow Intervals and Perception Thresholds (courtesy of Andrea Veilleux, USGS) was covered at the workshop and is available here.
The EWRI 2018 Bulletin 17C Workshop agenda and presentations are available here.
HEC-SSP beta version 2.20.249 that was used in the workshop is available here.
Details on the EWRI 2018 conference and technical workshops are at http://www.ewricongress.org/.
A short course on Bulletin 17C was held at the ASCE EWRI 2016 conference on Thursday May 26, 2016.
EWRI 2016 Short course material - presentations, references, and documents that were provided to participants is available here (63 Mb file). HEC-SSP beta software and Bulletin 17C examples used in the EWRI 2016 Short Course are available here.
Flood frequency concepts that are included in Bulletin 17C (EMA, interval data, PILFs, confidence intervals, etc.) are currently part of USGS Flood Frequency training classes. USGS also conducts periodic webinars on the PeakFQ software. Contact Chief, Analysis and Prediction Branch, USGS for details. The US Army Corps of Engineers, Risk Management Center periodically offers training on hydrologic hazards, including flood frequency with EMA/LP3. Please contact me for details. The USACE Hydrologic Engineering Center also offers training in flood frequency.
Other training courses, short courses, seminars, and webinars on Bulletin 17C and software are under development by USACE and USGS.
Additional information on training courses will be posted here, as it becomes available.
EMA/LP3 Software
(click images to enlarge)
References and documents relevant to Bulletin 17C are listed here, with links to obtain the document (if available). These documents are provided for research purposes of the HFAWG.
Blainey, J.B. (2000) Monte Carlo simulation of paleofloods: information content of paleoflood data in flood-frequency analysis, M.S. Thesis, Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, University of Arizona, Tucson, 93 p.
Blainey, J.B., Webb, R.H., Moss, M.E., and Baker, V.R. (2002) Bias and information content of paleoflood data in flood frequency analysis, in House, P.K., Webb, R.H., Baker, V.R., and Levish, D.R., eds., Ancient Floods, Modern Hazards: Principles and Applications of Paleoflood Hydrology, American Geophysical Union, Washington, D.C., p. 161-174.
Bureau of Reclamation (2002) Flood Hazard Analysis - Folsom Dam, Central Valley Project, California. Bureau of Reclamation, Denver, CO, January, 128 p. and 4 appendices
Chowdhury, J.U. and J.R. Stedinger (1991) Confidence Intervals for Design Floods with Estimated Skew Coefficient. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 117(7), pp. 811-831.
Cohn, T.A., W.L. Lane, and W.G. Baier (1997) An algorithm for computing moments-based flood quantile estimates when historical information is available, Water Resour. Res., 33(9), 2089–2096.
Cohn, T.A., W.L. Lane, and J.R. Stedinger (2001) Confidence Intervals for EMA Flood Quantile Estimates, Water Resources Research, 37(6), 1695-1706.
Cohn, T.A., Barth, N.A., England, J.F. Jr., Faber, B., Mason, R.R. and Stedinger, J.R. (2019) Evaluation of Recommended Revision to Bulletin 17B. USGS Open File Report 2017-1064, 141 p.
Cohn, T.A., England, J.F. Jr., Berenbrock, C., Mason, R.R., Stedinger, J.R., and Lamontagne, J.R. (2013b) A Generalized Grubbs-Beck Test Statistic for Detecting Multiple Potentially-Influential Low Outliers in Flood Series, Water Resour. Res., vol 49, doi:10.1002/wrcr.20392, pp. 5047-5058.
Curtis, J. A. and Whitney, J. W. (2003) Geomorphic and hydrologic assessment of erosion hazards at the Norman municipal landfill, Canadian River floodplain, Central Oklahoma, Environmental and Engineering Geoscience 9(3),doi:10.2113/9.3.241, pp. 241-252.
Eash, D.A., Barnes, K.K., and Veilleux, A.G., 2013, Methods for estimating annual exceedance-probability discharges for streams in Iowa, based on data through water year 2010: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2013-5086, 63 p. with appendix.
England, J.F. Jr. (1998) Assessment of Historical and Paleoflood Information in Flood Frequency Analysis. M.S. Thesis, Department of Civil Engineering, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, 292 p.
England, J.F. Jr. (1999) Draft User’s manual for program EMA, At-Site Flood Frequency Analysis with Historical/Paleohydrologic Data. Bureau of Reclamation, Denver, CO, July, 52 p.
England, J.F. Jr. (2000) A Simple Moments-Based Estimator That Utilizes Historical And Paleohydrologic Information, American Society of Civil Engineers, Joint Conference on Water Resources Engineering and Water Resources Planning and Management July 30 - August 2, 2000, Minneapolis, MN, 10 p.
England, J.F. Jr. and Collins, C.D. (2004) Flood Frequency and Hydrographs, Brantley Dam, New Mexico. Bureau of Reclamation, Denver, CO, December, 11 p. and appendices.
England, J.F. Jr. and Cohn, T.A. (2007) Scientific and Practical Considerations Related to Revising Bulletin 17B: The Case for Improved Treatment of Historical Information and Low Outliers, American Society of Civil Engineers, EWRI World Water & Environmental Resources Congress, May 15-19, 2007, Tampa, FL, 9 p.
England, J.F. Jr. and Cohn, T.A. (2008) Bulletin 17B Flood Frequency Revisions: Practical Software and Test Comparison Results, American Society of Civil Engineers, EWRI World Water & Environmental Resources Congress, May 13-16, 2008, Honolulu, HI, 11 p.
England, J.F. Jr., Salas, J.D., and Jarrett, R.D. (1998) A Comparison of Moments-based Estimators for Flood Frequency Analysis That Incorporate Historical Information. Proceedings, First Federal Interagency Hydrologic Modeling Conference, Las Vegas, NV, by the Subcommittee on Hydrology of the Interagency Committee on Water Data, pp. 4-37 - 4-44.
England, J.F. Jr., Salas, J.D., and Jarrett, R.D. (2003a) Comparisons of two moments-based estimators that utilize historical and paleoflood data for the log-Pearson Type III distribution. Water Resour. Res. 39 (9), pp. SWC-5-1 – SWC-5-16, doi:10.1029/2002WR001791.
England, J.F. Jr., Jarrett, R.D., and Salas, J.D. (2003b) Data-based comparisons of moments estimators that use historical and paleoflood data. J. Hydrol. 278 (1-4), doi:10.1016/S0022-1694(03)00141-0, pp. 170-194.
England, J.F. Jr., Klawon, J.E., Klinger, R.E. and Bauer, T.R. (2006) Flood Hazard Study, Pueblo Dam, Colorado, Final Report, Bureau of Reclamation, Denver, CO, June, 160 p. and seven appendices.
England, J.F. Jr., Cohn, T.A., Faber, B.A., Stedinger, J.R., Thomas, W.O., and Mason, R.R. (2013) Revisions Recommended to Bulletin 17B – US National Flood Frequency Guidelines, Abstract H51Q-03, presented at 2013 Fall Meeting, AGU, San Francisco, Calif., 9-13 Dec.
Godaire, J.E., and Bauer, T.R., 2012, Paleoflood study, North Fork Red River basin near Altus dam, Oklahoma: U.S. Department of Interior, Bureau of Reclamation, Denver, Colo., 55 p.
Godaire, J.E., and Bauer, T.R., 2013, Paleoflood study on the Rio Chama near El Vado dam, New Mexico: U.S. Department of Interior, Bureau of Reclamation, Denver, Colo., 58 p.
Godaire, J.E., Bauer, T.R., and Klinger, R.E., 2012, Paleoflood study, San Joaquin River near Friant dam, California: U.S. Department of Interior, Bureau of Reclamation, Denver, Colo., 60 p.
Gotvald, A.J., Barth, N.A., Veilleux, A.G., and Parrett, Charles (2012) Methods for determining magnitude and frequency of floods in California, based on data through water year 2006: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2012–5113, 38 p., 1 pl
Griffis, V. W. (2003) Evaluation of log-Pearson type 3 flood frequency analysis methods addressing regional skew and low outliers, M.S. thesis, Dept. of Civil and Environ. Eng., Cornell Univ., Ithaca, N.Y.
Griffis, V. W. (2008) EMA with historical information, low outliers, and regional skew, in proceedings World Water & Environmental Resources Congress 2008, Editors R. W. Babcock and R. Walton, American Society of Civil Engineers, Reston, Virginia.
Griffis, V.W. and Stedinger, J.R. (2007a) Evolution of flood frequency analysis with Bulletin 17. J. Hydrol. Eng., 12(3), pp. 283–297.
Griffis, V. W. and J. R. Stedinger (2007b) Incorporating climate change and variability into Bulletin 17B LP3 model, Paper 40927-2320, World Environmental & Water Resources Conference - Restoring our Natural Habitat, K.C. Kabbes editor, Tampa, Florida, May 15-18, 2007.
Griffis, V. W., J.R. Stedinger, and T.A. Cohn (2003) Extension of EMA to address regional skew and low outliers, Proceedings World Water & Environmental Resources Congress 2003, June 23-26. Paper # 816. Editors P. Bizier and P. DeBarry, Philadelphia, PA, American Society of Civil Engineers, Reston, Virginia.
Griffis, V.W., J.R. Stedinger, and T.A. Cohn (2004) LP3 Quantile Estimators with Regional Skew Information and Low Outlier Adjustments, Water Resources Research, 40, W07503, doi:1029/2003WR002697.
Harden, T.M., O’Connor, J.E., Driscoll, D.G., and Stamm, J.F. (2011) Flood-frequency analyses from paleoflood investigations for Spring, Rapid, Boxelder, and Elk Creeks, Black Hills, western South Dakota: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2011–5131, 136 p.
Hirsch, R.M. and Stedinger, J.R. (1987) Plotting positions for historical floods and their precision. Water Resour. Res. 30(6), pp. 1653-1664.
Hydrologic Frequency Analysis Work Group (HFAWG) (2006) Flood Frequency Research Needs. Memorandum Submitted to Subcommittee on Hydrology, January 16, 3 p.
Hydrologic Frequency Analysis Work Group (HFAWG) (2007) Summary of Gaging Station Data and Testing Methods for the EMA and Bulletin 17B Comparisons. Prepared by Will Thomas, Hydrologic Frequency Analysis Work Group, Subcommittee on Hydrology, revised August 8, 4 p.
Jarrett, R.D. and Tomlinson, E.M. (2000) Regional interdisciplinary paleoflood approach to assess extreme flood potential. Water Resour. Res. 36 (10), DOI: 10.1029/2000WR900098, 2957–2984.
Klinger, R.E., and Bauer, T.R., 2010, Paleoflood study on the South Fork of the Boise River for Anderson Ranch dam, Idaho: U.S. Department of Interior, Bureau of Reclamation, Denver, Colo., 30 p.
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