Trends

Project Overview

Motivation:

• • Understand regional climate variability and change in monthly/seasonal/annual temperature and precipitation in Alaska 1920-present

  • Will aid in developing divisional-based climate products and services

Key Findings:

• • Pacific Decadal Oscillation is a major driver of long-term climate variability in Alaska temperatures

  • Increasing temperature at long time (90+ years) scales, multi-decadal variability controls trends at shorter (i.e. 30 years) time scales

  • Increasing temperature on North Slope over most recent 30 years consistent with Polar Amplification signal

  • Limited trends/variability in precipitation

Annual divisional average temperature (smooth by 5-year running average) for the 13 Alaska climate divisions. Note the similar variability in temperatures to the PDO.

Trends in annual temperature for the 13 divisions and statewide average (area-weighted by size of division). The values shown are the total change over the period (degrees C) and statistically significant trends are shown in bold. Most significant positive trends occur over the 93 year period. Increasing temperatures on the North Slope over the last 30 years.