内容摘要：拉美国家近年来政局不稳的一个重要原因在于民众的意识形态出现了极化的趋势。本文分析了2012—2019年间“美洲晴雨表”中18个拉美国家的数据，发现自2014年以来，持极端意识形态的民众尤其是持极左观点的民众比重出现了显著上升，这主要是受到经济发展形势和各国执政党意识形态两个因素的交互影响。宏观上，以极左民众比重上升为特征的极化趋势主要是受到整个区域经济持续低迷和右翼政府的紧缩性经济政策影响。微观上，本文通过回归分析发现，民众对国家经济形势的判断与其所在国执政党的意识形态共同影响着其极化方向。在右翼执政的国家，民众对国家经济形势的评价越负面，其持极左观点的概率越高，持极右观点的概率越低；在左翼执政的国家，民众对国家经济形势的评价越负面，其持极左观点的概率越低，持极右观点的概率越高。最后，本文讨论了民众意识形态极化对拉美国家政局稳定的影响。本文发现，拉美极端民众尤其是极左民众参加抗议游行的概率显著高于温和民众。这意味着一国的极端民众比重越高，其发生大规模示威游行的概率越高。

Abstract: Based on data from the AmericasBarometer surveys in 18 Latin American countries from 2012 to 2019, this paper argues that one contributing factor of the region's recent political instability is the mass public's ideological polarization. The paper first describes the ideological polarization trend and analyzes its characteristics. Then it discusses the reasons for this trend. Specifically, the recent mass ideological polarization can be explained by countries’ economic situations and their ruling parties’ ideologies. Finally, this paper shows that mass ideological polarization can increase political instability. Ideological extremists, especially the extreme leftists, are more likely to participate in public protests and demonstrations than moderates.

Abstract: The objective of this chapter is to analyze Cuba’s efforts to attract investment and promote economic growth, focusing on lessons that can be learned from China’s experience. The chapter first briefly discusses Cuba’s domestic investment gap and the key role assigned to foreign direct investment (FDI) in filling this gap. It then compares the reform of China and Cuba with respect to promoting FDI. This is followed by identification of challenges for attracting FDI in Cuba and lessons from the Chinese experience that may be relevant to Cuba. The chapter concludes that in order to promote economic growth, it is imperative for Cuba to move steadfastly forward with its opening-up reforms, creating a stable environment where foreign investors can feel confident that they will be able to operate their businesses and remit their profits without government interference.

Abstract: This chapter proposes an initial reading of the logic of China’s evolving narrative as a global power. The piece attempts to understand some of the fundamental elements that frame China’s attempts at justifying its strategy to extend its global reach. While recognizing the speculative nature of this exercise, we also acknowledge the demand to engage in a dialogue that goes beyond explanations centered on China’s thirst for natural resources, unbalanced trade patterns, and other familiar themes that, although important, are not sufficient to fully comprehend China’s ascension to global status. An additional aspect of this intellectual task is to examine China’s emerging narrative from a perspective other than that of the United States. The deepening of China’s relationship with Latin America offers an excellent opportunity to examine this theme from a new standpoint.

Abstract: Using the theoretical frameworks of the Power Transition Theory and the Regional Security Complex Theory, this chapter analyzes whether the rise of China and its increasing interaction with Latin American countries have altered the region’s security situation. The authors adopt a diversity of cases approach and analyze three Latin American cases, Colombia, Brazil, and Venezuela. They argue that the engagement of PRC in South America has not tilted regional security. The reasons lie in (1) the way the Chinese government has framed their foreign policy agenda, (2) the interests of the respective parties in South America, and (3) the way the US has reacted to these interests.

Abstract: In this chapter, the authors examine whether the rise of China has contributed to greater instability and violence in Latin America. The evidence suggests that the rise of China has had no effect on interstate wars and militarized disputes within Latin America. The general trend towards fewer disputes, which began with the end of the Cold War, has continued. In addition, the rise of China has not increased political instability in the region either, due to China’s policy of non-interference in the domestic politics of its trading partners. The rise of China has not made Latin America more unsafe.