SoSe 2020 Branching process (2SWS)

Update 13 July: Lecture 12

Final Exam: 30 July at TU Math building. Check the email for more details.

Please contact me if you find any mistake in the slides. Thanks!

Please write me an email (just with name and student id number) if you decide to participate.

Lecture notes: Lecture 1, Lecture 2, Lecture 3, Lecture 4, Lecture 5 Lecture 6, Lecture 7, Lecture 8 Lecture 9 Lecture 10, Lecture 11, Lecture 12

Motivation

Branching process can provide a toy model for the number of infected people with the novel coronavirus. Each infectious individual could be either recovered/deceased or create more infections over time. It is worthwhile to 1) investigate the probability of extinction or outbreak for such a pandemic disease; 2) try to give a more detailed prediction of the long time infection.

Course description

This lecture deals with branching process, which is a simple stochastic model describing the time-evolution of a population in which each individual can produce an i.i.d. random number of off-springs.

We begin with the basic extinction-explosion properties of the discrete-time simple branching process on non-negative integers, also called Galton-Watson process (GWP). We introduce the classical tool – generating function and calculate the extinction probabilities. Then we study the asymptotic long-time behaviors of GWPs: Heyde-Seneta Theorem and Kesten-Stigum Theorem for super-critical case, Kolmogorov and Yaglom limits for sub-critical and critical cases. We present short analogs of extinction, generating function, limit behaviors for the continuous-time GWPs.

We also introduce the ideas of Galton-Watson tree and size-biased trees that give another proof of Kesten-Stigum Theorem. We close this course with some classical results, such as law of large numbers and central limit theory, on a related topic – branching random walks.

Prerequisites:

  • Probability Theory I & II.

  • Basic knowledge of Stochastic Processes (discrete-time Markov Chain, continuous-time jump processes on countable space) would be helpful.

References

  • K.B. Athreya and P.E. Ney. Branching Processes. Dover Books on Mathematics. Dover Publications, 2004. (Chapter I and Chapter III Section 1-8) Universitätsbibliothek TU Berlin

  • Z. Shi. Random walks and trees. ESAIM: Proc., 31:1–39, 2011. Link

  • R. Lyons and Y. Peres. Probability on Trees and Networks. Cambridge Series in Statistical and Probabilistic Mathematics. Cambridge University Press, 2017. (Chapter 12) Link

Course Information

  • Every Monday 10 a.m. -- 12 a.m from 20.04.2020 to 18.07.2020. Original place: Raum MA 748.

  • Due to Covid-19, this lecture will be provided as online course. A link will be given on every Monday Mornings.

  • This lecture is given in English.

  • The LSF link of this lecture.

  • Oral final exam. 2SWS or 5 ECTS.

  • Teaching materials (slides) will be given when the course begins.

  • Feel free to contact me if you have furture questions.