Research
Publications
"The Road to Crime: An Unintended Consequence of the Interstate Highway System", with Francesca Calamunci (conditionally accepted at Economic Journal)
ABSTRACT: The necessity to overhaul national infrastructure has become one of the key issues of US domestic policy in recent years. While the benefits of infrastructure spending are often straightforward, its unintended consequences are less well understood. This paper studies the impact of transportation infrastructure on local crime, focusing on the construction of the Interstate Highway System (IHS), the largest public works project in US history. Using a staggered difference-indifferences design and a county-by-year panel dataset spanning all US counties between 1960 and 1993, we find that a highway opening in a county led to an 8% rise in total index crime. This effect is driven by property crime (burglary, larceny, and motor vehicle theft), although some evidence suggests an increase in violent crime as well. Exploring potential mechanisms, we show that the rise in crime could be explained by the positive effect of highways on local economic outcomes, primarily the employment rate and the average firm size. We also observe an increase in the local population size, which, alongside improved economic conditions, likely increased the returns to criminal activity, and ultimately the risk of victimization. Finally, we find evidence that highways affected the behavior of local law enforcement, which increased in size and boosted its presence in the affected communities.
"Dreaming to Leave the Nest? Immigration Status and the Living Arrangements of DACAmented", with Rania Gihleb and Osea Giuntella (European Economic Review, Vol. 156, July 2023) [Open Access]
This study investigates the effects of the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) on the living arrangements and housing behavior of undocumented immigrants in the U.S. Using an event-study approach and difference-in-differences (DID) estimates, we compare immigrants above and below eligibility cutoffs and demonstrate that after the adoption of the policy in June 2012, DACA-eligible immigrants were less likely to live with their parents or in multigenerational households (-11%) and more likely to live independently (+15.5%). We also reveal that DACA-eligible immigrants were less likely to live in the same house (+2%) and more likely to move out of ethnic enclaves (-3%). Lower rental costs (-4.5%) may have facilitated this transition into adulthood and the observed trends in living arrangements. DACA also led to a decline in marriage rates among DACA-eligible individuals, while we found no evidence of significant effects on cohabitation, divorce, and intermarriage. We also found no evidence of a clear impact on fertility.
"Immigration and Work Schedules: Theory and Evidence", with Timothy N. Bond and Osea Giuntella (European Economic Review, Vol. 152, February 2023) [Open Access]
ABSTRACT: Economists have long been interested in analyzing the effects of immigration on native wages and employment. Yet, there is little evidence on the effects of immigration on work conditions. Previous studies have shown that because of task complementarities immigration pushes natives towards more communication intensive jobs. This reallocation of tasks has important effects on native work conditions. We provide a theoretical framework to analyze the effects of immigration work schedules. The model allows for immigrants to have a comparative advantage in either the production or provision (i.e. lower disamenity costs) of night-time tasks, which leads them to disproportionately choose night time employment. Because day-time and night-time tasks are imperfect substitutes, the relative wage of day-time tasks increases as their supply becomes relative more scarce. Consistent with our hypotheses we show that immigration decreases the likelihood of natives of working nightly shifts. Similarly, we find that immigration decreases natives’ likelihood of working in riskier jobs. By analyzing the differences in relative supplies and relative wages between natives and immigrants, we disentangle whether production or provision is more important for this selection effect.
"The effects of DACA on health insurance, access to care, and health outcomes" , with Osea Giuntella (Journal of Health Economics, Vol. 72, July 2020)
ABSTRACT: This paper studies the effects of the 2012 Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) initiative on health insurance coverage, access to care, health care use, and health outcomes. We exploit a difference-in-differences that relies on the discontinuities in the program eligibility criteria. We find that DACA increased insurance coverage. In states that granted access to Medicaid, the increase was driven by an increase in public insurance take-up. Where public coverage was not available, DACA eligibility increased individually purchased insurance. Despite the increase in insurance coverage, there is no evidence of significant increases in health care use, although there is some evidence that DACA increased demand for mental health services. After 2012, DACA-eligible individuals were also more likely to report a usual place of care and less likely to delay care because of financial restrictions. Finally, we find some evidence that DACA improved self-reported health and reduced depression symptoms, indicators of stress and anxiety, and hypertension. These improvements are concentrated among individuals with income below the federal poverty level.
"Trade Networks, Heroin Markets, and the Labor Market Outcomes of Vietnam Veterans", with Isabel Ruiz and Carlos Vargas-Silva (Labour Economics, Vol. 78, October 2022; KEA Mark Berger Best Paper Award) [Open Access]
The role of ethnic immigrant networks in facilitating international trade is a well-established phenomenon in the literature. However, it is less clear whether this relationship extends to illegal trade and unauthorized immigrants. In this paper, we tackle this question by focusing on the case of the heroin trade and unauthorized Chinese immigrants in the early 1990s United States. Between mid-1980s and mid-1990s, Southeast Asia became the dominant source of heroin in the US. Heroin from this region was trafficked into the US by Chinese organized criminals, whose presence across the country can be approximated by the location of unauthorized Chinese immigrants. Instrumenting for the unauthorized Chinese immigrant enclaves in 1990 with their 1900 counterpart, we first show that Chinese presence in a community led to a sizeable increase in local opiates-related arrests, a proxy for local heroin markets. This effect is driven by arrests for sale/manufacturing of the drugs. Next, we examine the consequences of Chinese-trafficked heroin by looking at its impact on US Vietnam-era veterans -- a group particularly vulnerable to heroin addiction in the early 1990s. Using a triple-difference estimation, we find mostly small but statistically significant detrimental effects on labor market outcomes of Vietnam veterans residing in unauthorized Chinese enclaves in 1990.
"Does Immigration decrease far-right popularity? Evidence from Finnish municipalities" (Journal of Population Economics, Vol. 34 (1), 2021; SEA Award for Young Economist) [Open Access]
ABSTRACT: Across Europe, far-right parties have made significant electoral gains in recent years, posing a serious threat to the European integration process. Their anti-immigration stance is considered one of the main factors behind their success. Yet, the causal evidence on how immigration affects far-right voting is still relatively scarce. Using data from Finland, this paper studies the effect of immigration on voting for the far-right Finns Party on a local level. Exploiting a convenient setup for a shift-share instrument, I find that one percentage point increase in the share of foreign citizens in municipality decreases Finns Party's vote share by 3.4 percentage points. A placebo test using pre-period data confirms this effect is not driven by persistent trends at the municipality level. The far-right votes lost to immigration are captured by the two pro-immigration parties. In addition, immigration is found to increase voter turnout while the protest vote remains unaffected. Turning to potential mechanisms, the negative effect is only present in municipalities with high initial exposure to immigrants. Moreover, I provide some evidence for welfare-state channel as a plausible mechanism behind the main result.
"Immigration policy and immigrants’ sleep. Evidence from DACA", with Osea Giuntella, Fabrizio Mazzonna, and Luca Stella (Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Vol. 182, February 2021) [Open Access]
ABSTRACT: The stress associated with immigrant status and immigration policy can significantly impair immigrants' quality of life and mental health. Stress often leads to sleep problems. While previous studies have documented a significant relationship between immigrant status and the physical and mental health of immigrants, we know little about the effects of immigration on sleep. Exploiting the introduction of the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) in 2012, we study how immigrants' sleep behavior responds to a change in immigration policy. Consistent with previous research documenting positive effects of DACA on mental health, we provide evidence of a significant improvement in immigrants' sleep duration and quality in response to this policy change. We find that DACA-eligible immigrants are 40% more likely to sleep at least 7 hours and 26% more likely to sleep at least 8 hours. These effects are concentrated among men and high-educated people, who are also more likely to report higher satisfaction with their sleep. Finally, DACA-eligible immigrants - after the introduction of the reform - are less likely to report episodes of sleeplessness (-50%). However, the uncertainty around the future of the program may have undermined its positive impact on sleep duration and quality. Starting in 2015, the fraction of DACA-eligible individuals reporting insufficient sleep is no longer statistically different from the pre-DACA levels.
"The Resilience of the Russian Mafia: An Empirical Study", with Federico Varese and Yuriy Podvysotskiy (British Journal of Criminology, Vol. 61 (1), 2021)
ABSTRACT: Criminal organizations constantly face challenges that threaten their existence. What makes an organization survive amidst such threats and confrontations? The paper begins with a discussion of the effects that state repression and state transformation might have on criminal organizations, and how such organizations might respond. We then turn to the case of the Russian mafia, known as the vory-v-zakone. We identify the key challenges faced by the vory, examine how the Russian mafia adapted to such threats. We conclude that the most significant threat occurred at the end of the Soviet Union and show that the Russian mafia adapted to new circumstances and changed elements of its admission ritual without significantly changing its organizational structure. We also show that the Putin era has not been as damaging to the criminal fraternity as some observers have argued. We conclude that the biggest threat came not from state policies but state transformation. The paper is based upon a new and unique dataset we constructed containing biographical information of more than 5,000 members of the vory fraternity. The paper contributes to the study of organizations, the effect of state policies on mafia groups, and the history of the Russian mafia.
Revise & Resubmit
"Gulags, Crime, and Elite Violence: Origins and Consequences of the Russian Mafia" (revision requested from Journal of Public Economics)
ABSTRACT: This paper studies the origins and consequences of the Russian mafia (vory-v-zakone). Using a unique web scraped dataset containing detailed biographies of more than 5,000 mafia leaders, I first show that the Russian mafia originated in the Soviet Gulag archipelago, and could be found near the gulags' initial locations in mid-1990s Russia, some three decades after the camps were officially closed down. Then, using an instrumental variable approach that exploits the proximity of the Russian mafia to the gulags, I show that Russian communities with mafia presence in the mid-1990s experienced a dramatic rise in crime driven by elite violence which erupted shortly after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. The violence – initially confined to the criminal underworld – eventually spilled over, leading to indiscriminate attacks against local businessmen, managers of state-owned enterprises, judges, and members of the state security apparatus. However, there was no increase in politically-motivated violence, suggesting a widespread collusion between the mafia and local politicians in the early post-Soviet Russia.
"How did the COVID-19 Pandemic Affect Cancer Patients in England who had Hospital Appointments Cancelled?", with Catia Nicodemo and Stuart Redding (revision requested from Social Science & Medicine)
ABSTRACT: The COVID-19 pandemic caused widespread cancellation of elective surgeries and appointments, disrupting healthcare and likely causing treatment delays for cancer patients. This study examines consequences of cancelled appointments during the pandemic for cancer patients in England using Hospital Episode Statistics from 2018-2022. Cancer patients were identified via ICD-10 diagnosis codes. Data was linked to QResearch primary care data for additional patient information. Cancer patients with appointments cancelled during the pandemic were compared to a pre-pandemic cohort. Despite potentially greater need, the pandemic cohort had fewer subsequent hospital appointments and inpatient days compared to the pre-pandemic group. Mortality risk was not significantly different after adjustment, although point estimates suggested slightly lower mortality in the pandemic group. Cancelled appointments during COVID-19 did not significantly impact cancer patient outcomes, even though this group used fewer hospital resources. This suggests effective prioritisation by hospitals. However, the reduced hospital utilization points to concerning delays in care.
Chapters and non-technical articles
"Migrant Health" with Osea Giuntella in Handbook of Labor, Human Resources and Population Economics, ed. Klaus F. Zimmermann (2022)
ABSTRACT: There is growing interest in understanding the health trajectories of migrants and refugees. This chapter discusses how the study of immigrant health can be used to anticipate the effects of the epidemiological transitions observed in the countries of origin and the future evolution of population health in the destination country. Furthermore, it summarizes the evidence on the role of immigrant selectivity, acculturation, access to care, and labor market conditions in explaining immigrant health trajectories. Finally, it reviews the recent evidence on the effects of immigration policy on the health and wellbeing of immigrants.
Work in progress
"Post-1968 Russian Military Occupation and Political Outcomes in Post-Communist Czech Republic" with Michaela Kecskesova and Stepan Mikula