Research
Applications of Research
Open Sourced Database: The Policy Rules Database
The Policy Rules Database is a GitHub Repository is designed to help researchers, policymakers and practitioners helping program participants to better understand the rules of the Social Safety Net. For every major Federal and State means-tested program and tax credit, the PRD provides detailed explanations of the program structure, including eligibility rules, formulas for computing the dollar value of each program, and interactions between programs. The PRD also includes a free online visualization tool called the “PRD Dashboard” that allows users to easily estimate the value of the social safety net.
An example of how the PRD can be used to understand the phaseout of public assistance programs is shown below. For more information, see my these presentation slides. A working paper is in progress. Several tools have been developed using the PRD, including the Guaranteed Income Dashboard described below.
Data Dashboard: The Effective Value of Guaranteed Income
The Effective Value of a Guaranteed Income: This dashboard uses the Policy Rules Database. It is designed for practitioners and policy makers trying to implement Guaranteed Income programs in their area. Users can select their location and identify their target population by family type and type of government assistance programs they believe their target population to be enrolled in. The dashboard then shows the effective value of guaranteed income, net of loss of government assistance and increases in taxes. This dashboard has been used by over 15 GI pilots across the country who have helped over 8000 prospective program participants understand the effect of GI on their public benefits and tax credits. I also have a working paper that simulates a national guaranteed income program. See the slides here.
Research
Publications
Ilin, Elias and Ellyn Terry. “Estimating Occupation- and Location- Specific Wages over the Life Cycle”, Business and Economic Research [online], vol. 12(2), pages 46-60. December 2022.
Birken, Brittany, Ilin, Elias, and Ruder, Alexander. “Restructuring the Eligibility Policies of the Child Care and Development Fund to Address Benefit Cliffs and Affordability: Florida as a Case Study”. Atlanta Fed Community & Economic Development Discussion Paper Series 2021-01.
Alexander Ruder, Julie Siwicki, Ellyn Terry, and Tamilore Toyin-Adelaja. “Benefits Cliffs as a Barrier to Career Advancement for Low-Income Adults: Insights from Employment Services Providers” Atlanta Fed Community & Economic Development Discussion Paper Series 2020-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. 2020
Altig, David, Ilin, Elias, Ruder, Alexander & Terry, Ellyn. ”Benefits Cliffs and the Financial Incentives for Career Advancement: A Case Study of the Health Care Services Career Pathway”. Atlanta Fed Community & Economic Development Discussion Paper Series 2020-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. 2020
Higgins, Patrick, Julie L Hotchkiss, & Ellyn Terry. "Evolution of Behavior, Uncertainty, and the Difficulty of Predicting Labor Force Participation." Business and Economic Research [Online], 9.4 (2019): 157-178. Web. 2 Feb. 2020
Altig, Dave, Auerbach, Alan, Higgins, Patrick, Koehler, Darryl, Kotlikoff, Laurence, Terry, Ellyn & Ye, Victor. “Did the 2017 Tax Reform Discriminate against Blue State Voters?” National Tax Journal, (2020): 73 (4). December 2020.
Working Papers
Ilin, Elias, Samantha Shampine, and Ellyn Terry. “Does Access to Free Prekindergarten Increase Maternal Labor Supply?” FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2022-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
Hartig, Seth, Ilin, Elias, McTier, Austin, Reyes, Edgar, and Terry, Ellyn. "Modeling the U.S. Social Safety Net Using the Policy Rules Database.” [slides] FRB Atlanta Working Paper [forthcoming], Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
Ilin, Elias, Reyes, Edgar, Ruder, Alex, and Terry, Ellyn. "Is the Safety Net a Poverty Trap? Evidence from Occupational Transitions in the Monthly CPS." Unpublished Manuscript.
Terry, Ellyn. "Is Diabetes Reducing the Potential Size of the Labor Force? Unpublished Manuscript.
Terry, Ellyn. "Guaranteed Income: Insurance Against Financial Precarity." [slides] Unpublished Manuscript.
Terry, Ellyn. "The Financial Institutions that Perpetuate Poverty and the Racial Divide." Unpublished Manuscript.
Short Reports
Terry, Ellyn & de Zeeuw, Mels. “How Do Firms Respond to Hiring Difficulties? Evidence from the Federal Reserve Banks' Small Business Credit Survey”. FRB Atlanta Discussion Paper 2018-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. 2018.
McKay, Shannon, Terry, Ellyn & Wavering, Emily. “Report on Rural Employer Firms”. 2016 Small Business Credit Report Series, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond and Atlanta. 2017
Barkley, Brett, Battisto, Jessica, Kramer Mills, Claire & Lieberman, Scott & Terry, Ellyn & Wavering, Emily & Wiersch, Ann Marie. “Report on Employer Firms”. 2016 Small Business Credit Report Series, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Kansas City, Minneapolis, New York, Philadelphia, Richmond, St Louis, San Francisco. 2017
Barkley, Brett, Kramer Mills, Claire, Carmelita Recto, Maria & Terry, Ellyn & Wavering, Emily. “Report on Employer Firms”. 2015 Small Business Credit Report Series, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Kansas City, Minneapolis, New York, Philadelphia, Richmond, St Louis, San Francisco. 2016
Kramer Mills, Claire & Terry, Ellyn. “Report on NonEmployer Firms”. 2014 Small Business Credit Report Series, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Cleveland, Philadelphia, Richmond and New York. 2015.
Kramer Mills, Claire & Terry, Ellyn. “Joint Small Business Credit Survey Report”. 2014 Atlanta Fed Annual Report. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Cleveland, Richmond and New York. March 2015.
Charles Davidson and Ellyn Terry. "Part 1: Is the Herd Thinning?," September 17, 2015. "Part 2: Why Gazelle Founders Set Sail," November 12, 2015. "Part 3: Financing the Herd," December 23, 2015. "Part 4: Social Capital—The Battle Cry of the Gazelle," March 10, 2016. "Part 5: For Gazelle Founders, Hiring Goes beyond the Resume," June 16, 2016. "The Gazelle Project" Economy Matters.
Blogs
Elias Ilin, Alexander Ruder, and Ellyn Terry. "The Racial Income Gap and Benefits Cliffs." Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Partners Update (September/October 2020).
Elias Ilin, John Robertson, Alex Ruder, and Ellyn Terry. “Amid the COVID-19 Crisis, a Tale of Two Cities,” macroblog. April 9, 2020.
John Robertson and Ellyn Terry. "Weighting the Wage Growth Tracker," macroblog. February 28, 2018.
Ellyn Terry. "Is Poor Health Hindering Economic Growth?," macroblog. August 30, 2017.
Ellyn Terry. "An Update on Labor Force Participation," macroblog. July 12, 2017.
Ellyn Terry. "Are Small Loans Hard to Find? Evidence from the Federal Reserve Banks' Small Business Survey," macroblog. May 11, 2017.
Dave Altig and Ellyn Terry. "Can Tight Labor Markets Inhibit Investment Growth?," macroblog. February 28, 2017.
Ellyn Terry. "Examining Changes in Labor Force Participation," macroblog. February 6, 2017.
Ellyn Terry. "Outside Looking In: Why Has Labor Force Participation Increased?," macroblog. November 22, 2016.
Ellyn Terry. "Is There a Gender Wage Growth Gap?," macroblog. November 14, 2016.
Ellyn Terry. "It's Not Just Millennials Who Aren't Buying Homes," macroblog. June 9, 2016.
Ellyn Terry. "Are People in Middle-Wage Jobs Getting Bigger Raises?," macroblog. May 19, 2016.
John Robertson and Ellyn Terry. "Labor Force Participation: Aging Is Only Half of the Story," macroblog. April 15, 2016.
John Robertson and Ellyn Terry. "Which Wage Growth Measure Best Indicates Slack in the Labor Market?," macroblog. April 4, 2016.
Ellyn Terry. "Collateral Requirements and Nonbank Online Lenders: Evidence from the 2015 Small Business Credit Survey," macroblog. March 15, 2016.
John Robertson and Ellyn Terry. "Are Paychecks Picking Up the Pace?," macroblog. February 17, 2016.
John Robertson and Ellyn Terry. "Shrinking Labor Market Opportunities for the Disabled?," macroblog. January 29, 2016.
John Robertson and Ellyn Terry. "Labor Report Silver Lining? ZPOP Ratio Continued to Rise in September," macroblog. October 5, 2015.
John Robertson and Ellyn Terry. "The ZPOP Ratio: A Simple Take on a Complicated Labor Market," macroblog. September 22, 2015.
John Robertson and Ellyn Terry. "Have Changing Job and Worker Characteristics Restrained Wage Growth?," macroblog. July 15, 2015.
John Robertson and Ellyn Terry. "New Atlanta Fed Series Shows Wage Growth Held Steady in May," macroblog. June 29, 2015.
Ellyn Terry. "Will the Elevated Share of Part-Time Workers Last?," macroblog. June 19, 2015.
John Robertson and Ellyn Terry. "Signs of Strengthening Wage Growth?," macroblog. May 1, 2015.
John Robertson and Ellyn Terry. "Signs of Improvement in Prime-Age Labor Force Participation," macroblog. March 6, 2015.
John Robertson and Ellyn Terry. "What's (Not) Up with Wage Growth?," macroblog. February 17, 2015.
John Robertson and Ellyn Terry. "Are We Becoming a Part-Time Economy?," macroblog. February 12, 2015.
Ellyn Terry. "Contrasting the Financing Needs of Different Types of Firms: Evidence From a New Small Business Survey," macroblog. January 15, 2015.
John Robertson and Ellyn Terry. "Chances of Finding Full-Time Employment Have Improved," macroblog. December 23, 2014.
John Robertson and Ellyn Terry. "Exploring the Increasingly Widespread Decline in Involuntary Part-Time Work," macroblog. December 19, 2014.
John Robertson and Ellyn Terry. "For Middle-Skill Occupations, Where Have All the Workers Gone?," macroblog. November 20, 2014.
John Robertson and Ellyn Terry. "Wage Growth of Part-Time versus Full-Time Workers: Evidence from the CPS," macroblog. November 10, 2014.
Melinda Pitts, John Robertson, and Ellyn Terry. "What's behind Declining Labor Force Participation? Test Your Hypothesis with Our New Data Tool," macroblog. October 15, 2014.
John Robertson and Ellyn Terry. "What Kind of Job for Part-Time Pat?," macroblog. August 25, 2014.
Ellyn Terry. "What’s Driving the Part-Time Labor Market? Results from an Atlanta Fed Survey," macroblog. August 5, 2014.
John Robertson and Ellyn Terry. "Part-Time for Economic Reasons: A Cross-Industry Comparison," macroblog. July 18, 2014.
John Robertson and Ellyn Terry. "Looking Beyond the Job-Finding Rate: The Difficulty of Finding Full-Time Work," macroblog. June 9, 2014.
Dave Altig, John Robertson, and Ellyn Terry. "How Discouraged Are the Marginally Attached?," macroblog. June 2, 2014.
Ellyn Terry. "Where Do Young Firms Get Financing? Evidence from the Atlanta Fed Small Business Survey," macroblog. May 20, 2014.
Dave Altig and Ellyn Terry. "How Has Disability Affected Labor Force Participation?," macroblog. May 9, 2014.
Melinda Pitts, John Robertson, and Ellyn Terry. "Reasons for the Decline in Prime-Age Labor Force Participation," macroblog. April 10, 2014.
Melinda Pitts, John Robertson, and Ellyn Terry. "A Closer Look at Post-2007 Labor Force Participation Trends," macroblog. April 8, 2014.
John Robertson and Ellyn Terry. "The Pattern of Job Creation and Destruction by Firm Age and Size," macroblog. February 26, 2014.
Ellyn Terry. "What Accounts for the Decrease in the Labor Force Participation Rate?," macroblog. January 17, 2014.
Timothy Dunne and Ellyn Terry. "Labor Force Participation Rates Revisited," macroblog. December 19, 2013.
Ellyn Terry. "Is Credit to Small Businesses Flowing Faster? Evidence from the Atlanta Fed Small Business Survey," macroblog. November 15, 2013.
John Robertson and Ellyn Terry. "Certain about Uncertainty," macroblog. October 4, 2013.
Jessica Dill and Ellyn Terry. "Examining the Reported Decline in the First-Time Homebuyer Share," Real Estate Research. August 29, 2013.
Ellyn Terry. "The Hiring Forecasts of Small Firms: Will the Pace of Employment Growth Pick Up?," macroblog. June 7, 2013.
John Robertson and Ellyn Terry. "2013 Business Hiring Plans: Employment, Effort, Hours, and Fiscal Uncertainty," macroblog. February 5, 2013.
Ellyn Terry. "Anticipating Growth despite a Slowdown? Results from the Recent Small Business Survey," macroblog. December 12, 2012.
Whitney Mancuso and Ellyn Terry. "2013 Business Hiring Gazelles, and Why They Matter," macroblog. November 29, 2012.
Ellyn Terry. "Trends in Small Business Lending," macroblog. October 4, 2012.
John Robertson and Ellyn Terry. "Young versus mature small firms seeking credit," macroblog. June 28, 2012.
Ellyn Terry. "Stimulating small business activity: Still a struggle," macroblog. June 27, 2011.
Ellyn Terry. "What's Going On with the Labor Force Participation Rate?." Economy Matters podcast. October 10, 2017.
Ellyn Terry. "It's Unhealthy—The Decline in Labor Force Participation." ECONversations. August 23, 2017.