Publications

Planning Ahead for Better Neighborhoods: Long Run Evidence from Tanzania

with Guy Michaels, Dzhamilya Nigmatulina, Ferdinand Rauch, Tanner Regan, and Neeraj Baruah. 

Journal of Political Economy,  2021.  [Working paper version] [Replication code] 

Abstract
Africa’s demand for urban housing is soaring, even as it faces a proliferation of slums. In this setting, can modest infrastructure investments in greenfield areas where people subsequently build their own houses facilitate long run neighborhood development? We study "Sites and Services" projects implemented in seven Tanzanian cities during the 1970s and 1980s, and we use a spatial regression discontinuity design to compare greenfield areas that were treated (“de novo”) to nearby greenfield areas that were not. We find that by the 2010s, de novo areas developed into neighborhoods with larger and more regularly laid out buildings and better quality housing.

Working Papers


Defying Distance? The Provision of Services in the Digital Age


Winner of Sir John Hicks Prize for Outstanding Doctoral Thesis

Winner of European Economic Association and UniCredit Foundation Best Job Market Paper


Abstract

Digital platforms make the distance between provider and user less relevant, enabling a better provider-user matching. Variation in skills and needs and the size of complementarities are central to reallocation gains, but are challenging to evaluate with endogenous sorting. I quantify skills, needs and reallocation gains in several outcomes in online healthcare in Sweden, using nationwide conditional random assignment between 200,000 patients and 350 physicians, and assess counterfactual policies. Matching patients at risk of avoidable hospitalizations with skilled doctors reduces them by 8%. I assess socioeconomic consequences of outcome-maximizing reallocations and show whether gains rely on matching over long distances.


Coverage: [Discussed by Sweden's Minister for Health Care] [Dagens Medicin]  [Faculti interview]  [The Visible Hand Podcast] [Swedish Agency on eHealth Strategy]




Incentives and Culture: Evidence from a Multi-Country Experiment

with Oriana Bandiera and Greg Fischer.



Abstract
Performance rewards are a cornerstone of management practices in Western countries but rarely used elsewhere. We test the hypothesis that the effect of rewards depends on whether a society values individual achievements. To do so, we set up identical data-entry firms in three countries and randomize the incentives offered to workers. We find that the effect of incentives on productivity aligns with the country’s rank on the individualism-collectivism scale, ranging from 0 in the least individualistic country to 20% in the most individualistic. We conclude that cultural norms must be embedded in the design of personnel policies in organizations.

Work in Progress



Online delivery of one-to-one services offers potential to save costs while increasing user convenience and equalizing access opportunities. But we know relatively little about online’s actual impacts (relative to in-person delivery) on consumers and providers, such as firms and governments. This paper focuses on healthcare, and specifically primary care doctor consultations. We use novel data from Sweden and effectively random assignment of patients to nurses with different propensities to refer patients to online versus in-person doctor consultations. We find that online consultations are delivered sooner and are shorter, and yield similar in-meeting outcomes, including rates of diagnosis, prescription, specialist referral, and patient satisfaction. Online consultations are, however, followed by more visits to emergency departments and more in-person primary care follow-ups. Nevertheless, patients’ medium-run outcomes do not differ significantly after online consultations. Adding the costs of increased follow-ups, online visits offer modest overall cost savings to both providers and patients.




Firms are key to economic development, and CEOs are key to firm productivity. We develop a parsimonious measure of CEO time use that allows us to differentiate CEOs into "leaders" and "managers" in a survey of 4,500 manufacturing firms across 42 countries with income per capita ranging from USD 4,000 to 40,000. We find that there are fewer leaders and fewer business schools in poorer countries. Even when suitable leaders are available, they often do not lead the firms that would benefit most, resulting in mismatches that can cause up to a 20% loss in productivity for the mismatched firms. The findings imply that policies that improve matching could significantly enhance growth without additional resources.



Baseline finished. Implementation in India ongoing.  [AEA RCT Registry]





    Miscellaneous

Policy report in book format, with Mårten Blix.