MAN-MADE, CO2-DRIVEN GLOBAL WARMING SCIENCE INFORMATION

MAN-MADE, CO₂-DRIVEN GLOBAL WARMING SCIENCE INFORMATION

1. The atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration is now about 385 parts per million (ppm) by volume and increasing at about 2.5 ppm per year but “positive feedback” can increase this rate (e.g. the white ice to black water “albedo flip”; release of methane and CO₂ from melting tundra; lubrication of glacier movement to the sea; loss of CO₂ sequestration by oceans, phytoplankton, forests) (see: http://climateemergency.blogspot.com/ , http://www.ipcc.ch/ and http://blog.wired.com/wiredscience/2007/12/nasas-james-han.html ).

2. Coral reef death above 450 ppm CO₂ – at above about 450 ppm CO₂ (26 years’ time at current rates) the world’s coral reefs – including Australia’s Great Barrier Reef – will start dying because of ocean acidification as well as from bleaching due to photosynthetic symbiont expulsion from increased ocean temperature. Top coral scientists say the “tipping point” for world coral death is in the 450-500 ppm atmospheric CO₂ zone

Science 14 December 2007: Vol. 318. no. 5857, pp. 1737 – 1742: http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/318/5857/1737 ; http://www.abc.net.au/rn/scienceshow/stories/2007/2115399.htm ; http://www.exeter.ac.uk/cornwall/about_the_campus/latest_news/coral.shtml ; http://green-blog.org/tag/the-great-barrier-reef/ ; see: also the latest 2007 IPCC Synthesis Report: http://www.ipcc.ch/ and http://green-blog.org/2007/11/21/summary-of-the-summary-of-the-2007-ipcc-ar4-synthesis-report/ ) .

3. Phytoplankton, Greenland Ice Sheet go above 500 ppm CO₂ - Atmospheric CO₂ concentration will reach 500 ppm in. 46 years’ time at current rates assuming no acceleration of CO₂ accretion in the atmosphere due to “positive feedback” effects (500-385 =115 ppm; 115ppm/2.5ppm per year = 46 years). At 500 ppm there is huge damage to the ocean phytoplankton system (crucial for ocean food chains and for global temperature homeostasis (balance) by sequestering CO₂ and for light-reflecting cloud formation through production of cloud-seeding dimethylsulphide) and the Greenland ice sheet melts with a huge attendant circa 7 meter sea level rise (see: James Lovelock “The Revenge of Gaia”, Penguin, London, 2006; http://www.commondreams.org/headlines06/0119-01.htm ; http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v439/n7074/abs/nature04245.html ).

4. World has passed “tipping point” for sea ice loss - at current 385 ppm CO₂ we already have passed a “tipping point” for the complete loss of Arctic summer sea ice that may be completely gone within a decade (see: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7461707.stm ; http://nsidc.org/news/press/20070430_StroeveGRL.html ; http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/NewImages/images.php3?img_id=17782 ; ) – with huge implications for polar warming, Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheet melting, tundra melting (see: http://www.cbc.ca/technology/story/2008/06/11/seaice-permafrost.html and http://news.mongabay.com/2008/0611-arctic.html ) and sea level rise (see also: http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/0804/0804.1126.pdf ; http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/apr/07/climatechange.carbonemissions ; http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/20080401_DearPrimeMinisterRudd.pdf ).

5. Record species extinctions - at current levels of human impact (e.g. 1⁰C above pre-industrial, current 385 ppm CO₂ ) we already have an animal extinction rate that is one thousand (1,000) times greater than that of the fossil record (see also: http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v427/n6970/full/nature02121.html ; http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2004/01/0107_040107_extinction.html ).

6. Atmospheric CO₂ concentration is rising rapidly – it is currently about 385 ppm but is increasing at a rate approaching 3 ppm per year corresponding to the very worst scenario envisaged by the IPCC i.e. of unaddressed carbon pollution; temperature increasing by 0.3 ⁰C per decade (see: http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn10507-carbon-emissions-rising-faster-than-ever.html and http://www.climatecodered.net/ ).

7. Less than 350 ppm CO₂ safe - top US climate scientist Dr James Hansen (Head, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, GISS, New York) says that we have gone too far: "The evidence indicates we've aimed too high -- that the safe upper limit for atmospheric CO₂ is no more than 350 ppm", and wants a “negative CO₂ emissions” policy of cessation of CO₂ pollution and reducing atmospheric CO₂ pollution (e.g. by use of renewable and geothermal energy, re-afforestation, returning carbon as biochar to soils) (for recent articles about or by Dr Hansen and his colleagues see: http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/0804/0804.1126.pdf ; http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/apr/07/climatechange.carbonemissions ; http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/20080401_DearPrimeMinisterRudd.pdf ) .

8. Global warming destruction of ecosystems is un-economic as well as irreversible vandalism - It has been estimated by Balmford et al in the prestigious scientific journal Science that for a variety of “biomes” (ecological systems) the total economic value (TEV) is about 50% greater when the resource is used sustainably as opposed to destructive conversion. Further, these scientists have found that the economic benefit from preserving what is left of wild nature is OVER 100 TIMES greater than the cost of preservation (see “Economic reasons for preserving wild nature”: http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/297/5583/950 ).

9. Biofuel diversion and famine - crop-based biofuels are highly CO₂ polluting, the global food price crisis (driven in part by US-, UK- and EU- mandated food diversion for biofuel, oil price rises, globalization, global warming and speculation) threatens “billions” with biofuel-driven famine according to UK Chief Scientist Professor John Beddington FRS (see:

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23336840-11949,00.html ;

http://climateemergency.blogspot.com/ ; http://www.liberalati.com/?q=node/261 ).

10. Climate change famine and mass mortality - unaddressed climate change already threatens billions and will kill over 6 billion people this century according to Professor James Lovelock FRS) (see: http://royalsociety.org/news.asp?id=7226 ; http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/16956300/the_prophet_of_climate_change_james_lovelock ; http://climateemergency.blogspot.com/2008_02_01_archive.html ).

11. Climate change, methane, sea levels & mass fauna exticntion. Dr Andrew Glikson (an Earth and paleo-climate research scientist at Australian National University, Canberra, Australia) in “The Methane Time Bomb and the Triple Melt-down" (see: : http://www.countercurrents.org/glikson101008.htm ): “For some time now, climate scientists warned that melting of subpolar permafrost and warming of the Arctic Sea (up to 4 degrees C during 2005–2008 relative to the 1951–1980) are likely to result in the dissociation of methane hydrates and the release of this powerful greenhouse gas into the atmosphere (methane: 62 times the infrared warming effect of CO2 over 20 years and 21 times over 100 years) … The amount of carbon stored in Arctic sediments and permafrost is estimated as 500–2500 Gigaton Carbon (GtC), as compared with the world’s total fossil fuel reserves estimated as 5000 GtC. Compare with the 700 GtC of the atmosphere, which regulate CO2 levels in the range of 180–300 parts per million and land temperatures in a range of about – 50 to + 50 degrees C, which allowed the evolution of warm blooded mammals. The continuing use of the atmosphere as an open sewer for industrial pollution has already added some 305 GtC to the atmosphere together with land clearing and animal-emitted methane. This raised CO2 levels to 387 ppm CO2 to date, leading toward conditions which existed on Earth about 3 million years (Ma) ago (mid-Pliocene), when CO2 levels rose to about 400 ppm, temperatures to about 2–3 degrees C and sea levels by about 25 +/- 12 metres. There is little evidence for an extinction at 3 Ma. However, by crossing above a CO2 level of 400 ppm the atmosphere is moving into uncharted territory. At this stage, enhanced methane leaks threaten climate events, such as the massive methane release and fauna extinction of 55 million years ago, which was marked by rise of CO2 to near-1000 ppm.”

CONTACT: Yarra Valley Climate Action Group (YVCAG): mawj@bigpond.com ; Climate Emergency Network (CEN):

http://www.climateemergencynetwork.org/ .

November 2008