Research
Working Papers
Labor Market Effects of Public Housing: Evidence from Large-Scale Lotteries (with L. Mation) [new version coming soon]
We exploit housing lotteries in Brazil to study the impacts of a large-size housing program on labor market outcomes. Combining data from several administrative registries, we track monthly outcomes for 700,000 lottery applicants, 35,000 of whom won a housing lottery. We assess the effects of winning a lottery on labor supply and entrepreneurship. We find a small, negative impact on formal employment. The effects are stronger for male lottery winners living in smaller cities. We do not find any impact on the likelihood of formalizing small-size firms. The results suggest that the thicker labor markets of larger cities may work as a buffer to mitigate the network disruption of living in remotely located housing projects. Wealth and income effects from the housing program allowed winners of remote projects to buy motorcycles to reduce transportation time costs to formal job opportunities.
Who Benefits from Job Training Programs? Evidence from a High-Dosage Program in Brazil (with R. Oliveira and D. Silva). R&R Journal of Development Economics. Link
Using admission lotteries and registry data linking labor market outcomes, we study the effect of a vocational training program focused on disadvantaged individuals in Brazil. The intensive program is an 18-month classroom training coupled with a 6-month on-the-job training provided by government-sponsored training centers. When assessing the impacts on 15,000 winners and 200,000 nonwinners who graduated in different business cycle moments, we show that female students fare better than their male counterparts. Results are driven by courses in services and those located in faster-growing local labor markets. Investigating outcomes beyond employment and earnings, we do not find an impact on entrepreneurship or university admission.
Commodity Booms and The Environment (with M. Dotta). Link
This paper studies how production responses from agricultural commodity booms affect greenhouse gas emissions, the primary cause of climate change. We show that Brazilian localities more exposed to booms substantially increase deforestation and agricultural fires, leading to higher emissions. The effects are significantly higher in Brazil’s major biomes, including the Amazon. Commodity booms also induce production responses toward lower emissions, such as higher output per area. Taking into account higher- and lower-emission production responses, localities present an increase in net emissions. Moreover, our findings highlight that positive economic shocks may have unintended consequences, as high-exposed localities present lower compliance with a climate policy aiming at boosting conservation.
Technological Progress and Climate Change: Evidence from the Agricultural Sector (with M. Dotta and T. Lobo). Link
We provide evidence of how technological progress affects greenhouse gas emissions. Using a dynamic difference-in-differences design, we show that producers in Brazilian localities with high suitability for genetically engineered seeds increase crop output by substituting away from higher-emission activities (such as livestock breeding). This increase in crop output is not accompanied by deforestation and fires---two major greenhouse gas emitters. Further, our findings indicate that the agriculture sector presents lower carbon intensity: emissions per output decreased by 30% after the land-use change promoted by the introduction of genetically engineered seeds. Our evidence suggests that technological innovations can decouple production from emissions.
The Effects of Fiscal Equalization on Housing Markets: Evidence from Brazil
This paper seeks to understand how local government policies on housing stimulus and city growth are affected by intergovernmental transfers. Cities receiving smaller amounts of fiscal transfers may have more incentives to stimulate housing growth to increase local revenue and, as a result, they end-up attracting more people and having a faster-growing housing sector. By contrast, lack of windfalls may also generate lower provision of local public goods, emigration of current residents, and stagnated housing markets. Quasi-experimental evidence from the distribution of intergovernmental transfers to Brazilian municipalities shows that locations less dependent on federal grants have a faster-growing housing sector.
Publications and Forthcoming Papers
The Consequences of Health Mandates on Infant Health: Evidence from a Smoking-Ban Regulation (with P. Drugowick). Journal of Development Economics, 2024.
Climate Adaptation Policies and Infant Health: Evidence from a Water Policy in Brazil (with L. Emanuel, V. Pereira and B. Sampaio). Journal of Public Economics, 2023.
Paper: Link, WP Version, Twitter thread
More Than Words: Leaders' Speech and Risky Behavior during a Pandemic (with N. Ajzenman and T. Cavalcanti), American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 2023.
Slums and Pandemics (with L. Brotherhood, T. Cavalcanti, C. Santos), Journal of Development Economics, 2022.
Paper: Link, Version, Twitter thread
Research Summary published at the IDB: Research Insights
Changing the Climate for Banking: The Economic Effects of Credit in a Climate-Vulnerable Area (with G. Resende), Journal of Development Economics, 2020.
Avoidable Environmental Disasters and Infant Health: Evidence from a Mining Dam Collapse in Brazil (with B. Carrillo, L. Emanuel, D. Lopes, B. Sampaio), Health Economics, 2020.
Paper: Link
Winning the Oil Lottery: The Impact of Natural Resource Extraction on Growth (with T. Cavalcanti and F. Toscani). Journal of Economic Growth, 2019.
Paper: Link
Companion video "Oil and gas wells in Brazil": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ZKdnUeBcOI
Research Summary published in the IMF Research Bulletin: Link
On the Determinants of Slum Formation (with T. Cavalcanti, M. Santos). The Economic Journal, 2019
Media Briefing: Link
Determinants of City Growth in Brazil (with U. Deichmann, J. V. Henderson, S. Lall, H. Wang). Journal of Urban Economics, 2007
NBER Working Paper: Link
Work in Progress
Low-Cost Management Consulting and Firm Productivity (with L. Mation)
AEA Registry: link
Video explaining the research project: link
Breaking Up: Do Smaller Jurisdictions Provide Better Services (with M. Castro)
Labor Market Policies and Informality (with L. Brotherhood, N. Guner, P. Kircher, C. Santos)
Housing and Mental Well-being during Pressing Times: Experimental Evidence from Brazilian Slums (with G. Avelino, L. Bueno, N. Bueno, C. Biderman)
Do Job Placement Services Unleash the Benefits from Job Training? (with R. Oliveira)