This is hard to predict and can only be compared to Summer Loss (SL), Strikes and Earthquakes & Floods
Summer loss - based on SL the effect covid-19 will have could be - 50% loss for maths, 30% loss for reading based on studies in the US. Hattie suggests SL has a -0.02 effect size. However some research suggest, this can be + for pupils from affluent backgrounds and in other studies economic differences can show no difference in effect size.g. Netherlands
Strikes - the effect of long term strikes can be felt 4-5 years after
However, during SL and strikes there is no formal education, unlike now.
Earthquakes and floods - Hattie has done a recent study and ON AVERAGE there have been no negative consequences.
Gap thinking suggests 2 groups far apart and there is nothing in between. However many children are between the 2 gaps.
Corona has been affecting the differences between pupils due to fairness.
What are the causes for unfairness?
Stress/ Toxic Stress - when parents are stress
Inequality - income, help at home, access to places to work equipment, lower income families have MORE CONTACT with school as school reaches out to these families, parents help daughters more than boys.
Observe - currently we can ste pupils reactions and non-verbal cues
Console/Emotional Well- being - don’t focus on just academics, think how else pupils can interact socially and share stories, how can we make safe havens?
Select - We can achieve all of the goals in the limited time. Learning is still important as it can help you feel good and can give you escapism so there is still a place for it.
Monitor - Monitor the learning have both formal evaluation and informal data points to shape
For example if pupils say they have learned don’t always check with formal evaluation as time is now limited.
Diverse approach across countries as well as in countries.
Not everyone will come back
There will be 3 groups of pupils:
Pupils who will come back and learn not in a comfortable situation
Pupils who can’t come back
Too afraid to come back - a report suggests pupils whose parents are afraid shouldn’t be made to come back. There is a relation between this group and inequality
Take care of yourself before you take care of the children.
If teachers burnout you can’t help pupils.