These are a series example analysis plots and forecasts maps that will be generated regularly to support the science goals of the NASA NURTURE mission and the January/February 2026 deployment based out of Goose Bay, NL, Canada.
More information on NASA NURTURE can be found here: https://espo.nasa.gov/nurture
Forecasts maps generated from the GFS forecasts
300-hPa Geopotential Height + Shearing Deformation (SH, top left), Stretching Deformation (ST, top right), Relative Vorticity (ζ , bottom left), and Okubo-Weiss Parameter (W = SH2 + ST2 – ζ2 , bottom right). Calculated on the dynamic tropopause. W > 0: Deformation dominates flow and W < 0: Vorticity dominates flow
Goose Bay, located at • and a 1500 km range ring is in blue.
Forecasts of 200-hPa ozone mixing ratio and geopotential height.
• The location of the local max in ozone mixing ratio gradient.
— Cross section parallel to the ozone gradient vector extending 1500 km from •.
° A 1500 km range ring from Goose Bay, located at •
TOP:
Potential Temperature on the 2 PVU surface
* The location of the local minimum in the dynamic tropopause potential temperature (local = 10˚ from Goose Bay, NL, Canada, indicated by •)
• Largest potential temperature gradient within 5˚ of local min potential temperature.
— Cross section parallel to the gradient vector extending 1000 km from *.
° The 1500 km range ring from •
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Bottom:
The cross section along line in the previous figure.
Shaded:
Ozone mixing ratio
Relative humidity
Contours:
— potential temperature
— dynamic tropopause (2 PVU)
— normal wind
* The location of the local minimum in the dynamic tropopause potential temperature
(local = 10˚ from Goose Bay, NL, Canada)
• Largest potential temperature gradient within 5˚ of local min potential temperature.
Example of tropopause-level potential vorticity (PV at 300-hPa in this image) and the corresponding 50-hPa geopotential height. These figures will allow the team to see how the TPVs are coupled or decoupled with the stratospheric vortex above. On this figure, TPVs are noted by blue markers.
These cross sections giva an indication of the state of the stratospheric polar vortex, stratospheric ozone anomalies, and an indication of the large scale stratospheric vertical strucutre than can influence planetary Rossby wave propagation in the extratropical atmosphere.
(left cross section) Vertical cross section averaged between 45-75˚N of the departures from the zonal-mean geopotential height (m; fills) and dynamic tropopause height (teal line).
(center profiles) L: Vertical profiles of the 60˚N zonal-mean zonal wind, with the 2-10 hPa layer highlighted red when easterly vertical shear is present in the upper stratosphere (an indicator of a Rossby wave reflecting layer); Middle two profiles: the amplitudes of wave numbers 1 (red), 2 (orange), 3 (blue), and 4-7 (purple) geopotential height (m); R: the vertical profile of area weighted polar cap (65-90˚N) temperature (K).
(right cross section) Vertical cross section averaged between 55-75˚N of the departures from zonal-mean ozone mixing ratio (x 10^-6; fills), temperature (K; purple) with values indicating the threshold for polar stratospheric clouds (green), and dynamic tropopause height (teal line).
(right profile) Vertical profile of 55-75˚N zonal-mean ozone mixing ratio (x 10^–6 kg/kg)
Top: The 2019/2020 winter season time series of 60˚N zonal-mean zonal wind at 2 and 10 hPa, blue (U2) and red (U10) lines, respectively. The DURI metric (purple) is calculated as the difference of U2–U10, when DURI is <0, it indicate easterly vertical shear in the lower stratosphere. Easterly shear in the lower stratosphere enhances the occurrence of stratospheric Rossby wave reflection events. The DURI climatological mean (gray) and the climatological values between ± 1 and 2 standard deviations (medium gray and light gray, respectively) are shown for context.
Bottom: The 2019/2020 winter season time series of 100-hPa meridional eddy heat flux (v'T') in a 45-75˚ N box over Siberia (blue) and Canada (red), as well as the vTRI metric (purple). The vTRI metric is calculated as the difference between v'T'_Sib and v'T'_Can. When vTRI exceeds 100 and v'T'_Can is <0, it signals a Rossby wave reflection event is occuring over the N. Pacific. The vTRI climatological mean (gray) and the climatological values between ± 1 and 2 standard deviations (medium gray and light gray, respectively) are shown for context.