Rare Earths Elements Security Premiums: A cross-country analysis for the U.S. and G10 economies Link to the paper
Abstract: This paper estimates “security premiums” for Rare Earth Elements (REEs) for the U.S. and G10 economies. Security premiums measure the GDP losses and increased import expenditures, providing a comprehensive metric for evaluating losses from supply shocks. Using trade data from 1995 to 2023, I employ an Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) framework to estimate each country’s elasticities and supply shock probabilities. The results reveal substantial heterogeneity in losses across economies, with premiums ranging from $0.09/kg for Japan to $6.67/kg for the U.S. Sensitivity analysis demonstrates two channels drive these differences: shock probabilities and country-specific elasticities. These findings contribute to ongoing policy debates on critical mineral security by providing a quantitative framework for calibrating strategic reserves, supplier diversification initiatives, and domestic production incentives. This paper offers the first comprehensive estimates of security costs for REEs, filling a critical gap that informs the losses arising from supply security.
Trade policy in the global Rare Earths Market: Link to the paper Abstract: This paper examines whether tariffs mitigate market power in the global REE market, taking into account exporters’ import intensity role. Using annual bilateral trade data from 1995–2021, we analyze how exchange rate (ER) fluctuations interact with tariffs and import intensity to shape exporters’ pricing-to-market (PTM) behavior. We find that tariffs constrain non-Chinese exporters’ market power, reducing their export prices by 0.86–1.74% per 10% currency appreciation. In contrast, China maintains significant PTM behavior, passing only 78–93% of ER shocks to destination prices and unaffected by tariffs. Our results suggest that tariffs, rather than mitigating, reinforce China’s dominance by reducing the market shares of smaller exporters. We also provide the first evidence that HS6 product codes contain both refined and unrefined REEs, with US import varieties prices exceeding exported varieties prices by 17–64%. Policymakers seeking to counter REE market concentration may need strategies beyond tariffs, such as investments in domestic refining.
Effect of media attention on passing of bills in the US congress: An empirical testing of the Secret Congress story This study whether the increased media coverage of the US Congress causally reduces the bipartisan co-sponsorship. I leverage data from NewsBank, US Congress data, and data on the Cosponsorship network from Fowler 2006.
Teotia, A., Prakash, P., Breitzig, M., Beltran-Silva, F.:Social Media Use Frequency, Hopelessness, and Suicide-Related Outcomes in U.S. Adolescents: Evidence from the 2023 National YRBS We analyze nationally representative 2023 Youth Risk Behavior Survey data. Compared to non-users, adolescents using social media more than once per hour report a 6.5% higher probability of hopelessness.