Presentations:  EEA-ESEM  (2019, Manchester), Paris December Finance Meeting (2019, Paris)

(one-sentence-summary) post-1970s analysis indicates that the inflation-financial ratio correlation can be largely attributed to the relationship between expected inflation and future growth prospects, thereby explaining why the dividend-price ratio predicts future inflation.

Presentations:  AFFI (2021, Virtual), AMES (2021, Virtual)

(one-sentence-summary) gold-related ratios display distinct return predictability across business cycles and exhibit global return predictability when investors anticipate a U.S. recession.

Presentations:  Frontiers of Factor Investing  (2021, Lancaster), IAAE (2024, Xiamen), AsianFA (2024, Macau), FMA (2024, Grapevine), Dishui Lake (2025, Shanghai)  

(one-sentence-summary) we uncover a positive relationship between (cash flow) news based idiosyncratic volatility and expected returns, and propose a stylized model to rationalize the IVOL relationship/puzzle.

Presentations: EWMES (2018, Naples), CICF (2019, Guangzhou), AEA-Poster (2021, Virtual)

(one-sentence-summary) we identify a common component between stock returns and dividend growth, driven by public debt, and propose a production-based model to rationalize this relationship.

Presentations: PHBS-CUHKSZ Workshop (2025, Shenzhen)

(one-sentence-summary) We find that currency crashes are predictable, with a combination of higher local interest rates and weak currency performance associated with a 43.0% crash probability within the subsequent six months—substantially higher than during normal periods.

(one-sentence-summary) We develop a real-time global market crash index that combines widened interest rate differentials with weak stock performance, showing that crash risk is strongly linked to stock return predictability and underscoring the critical role of local–U.S. interest rate spreads in forecasting crashes.

Reject and Resubmit at the Review of Finance   

(one-sentence-summary) FOMC meetings' news channel boosts even-week returns in non-US countries even without international equity flows, while its uncertainty channel creates a contrasting odd-week pattern in China, with placebo tests indicating its effectiveness depends on market openness.

Presentations:  Cryptocurrency Research Conference (2021, Virtual), UWA Blockchain and Cryptocurrency Conference (2021, Virtual)

(one-sentence-summary) we evaluate the common factor structure of cryptocurrencies and U.S. equities, finding no common factors before 2019, but identifying one common factor emerging post-2020.

Revise and Resubmit

Presentations:  USTC-UW Workshop (2020, Virtual), AMES (2021, Virtual)

(one-sentence-summary) lagged Chinese returns significantly predict global stock returns, subsuming the predictive power of lagged U.S. returns in monthly predictions, with rolling pool estimation showing China taking the lead post-2000, aligning with its WTO accession and contribution to global economic growth.

Revise and Resubmit

Presentations: EFA (2020, Helsinki-Virtual), FMA Annual Meeting (2020, Virtual) 

(one-sentence-summary) we build an empirical model to connect option-implied cumulants with expected risk premia through latent risk factors, and utilize the positive relationship between the ex-ante filtered expected risk premium and future realized risk premium to develop a significant strategy.