2022 MLB Draft Order

The Draft

Brooks Lee - SS, Cal Poly San Luis Obispo

Pick Overview:

The Baltimore Orioles will select SS Brooks Lee out of Cal Poly with the top overall pick in the 2022 draft. Lee (21) is a switch hitter capable of providing plus power from both sides of the plate. His approach is plus plus, and with an extremely high line drive rate (34.1% LD rate, 14.9 avg LA in 2022), Lee looks poised to be a fast riser through the minor league ranks. His athleticism could see him switch over to either second or third base in pro ball, where he will provide an average level of defense at either position. He is a fantastic fit for Baltimore in this spot, as the Orioles’ top prospects in their rebuild are entering the show and upper levels of the minors. Taking the best college bat off the board at 1.1. (potentially slightly below slot) would make sense, and be a big win for the organization.

Why Lee at 1.1:

Seven of the Orioles’ top ten prospects (MLB dot com) are either in the show or feature in AAA. Of the three non AAA+ players in the top ten, both Kjerstad and Cowser played college ball, and are expected to both hit the majors by 2024. Coby Mayo has been in the system for a couple of years as well, and shares a similar timeline. As a result, its clear the Orioles would like to open up a window in about 2024, where some of the current high level guys settle in to playing at the major league level. Thus, drafting a top notch college talent with a proven track record makes sense for Baltimore. Lee could start in Aberdeen alongside Mayo, hopefully putting him in line as another 2024 debutant – and one of the final pieces in what Baltimore will hope is a playoff caliber homegrown lineup. While one of the highly talented high school players could easily go at 1.1, the state of the Baltimore rebuild makes Lee a safer and higher rising choice for the club – they could probably also get him under slot for 1.1., giving them more financial flexibility for their 33rd overall selection in Comp Balance A round.

The Player:

Hit: 55

Power: 55

Run: 50

Throw: 55

Field: 50

Lee is an all around type of talent anchored by his plus hit tool. As mentioned above in his overview, Lee averaged a line drive on every hit in 2022 (avg LA 14.9 degrees). With an average exit velocity of 88.8 mph (max 109), he tends to get on base on batted ball outcomes quite frequently. What leaves me even more bullish on Lee’s hit tool is the fact that in 2022, his line drive rate against breaking balls (slider, curve) was 43.6%, with barrels coming against spin 25.6% of the time. The only question marks remaining in regards to his hit tool are whether or not he can handle top notch velo, and if he can stick as a switch hitter in the minors. Lee only faced two pitches at 95+ mph this year, and only posted a .272 wOBA vs fastballs thrown 93+ (29 pitches). There isn't a ton of room for concern here, as Lee flashes solid bat speed, and has shown time and time again that he is capable of flexibility when it comes to attack and bat angle changes – it is however something to keep note of. On his left/right splits: Lee is a significantly better hitter from the left side of the plate than the right (vs RHP). While his exit data is relatively similar (he produces slightly better exit velos as a lefty), Lee’s hit tool plays down much more as a righty – he chased 37% of the time from the right side in 2022 (only 18.7% as a lefty). Additionally, while his punch out rate is outstanding as a lefty (only 8%), Lee struck out on 20.4% of his plate appearances as a right handed hitter (walk rate is only 5.6% from the right side as well, half of his lefty output). The combination of chase, whiff, lower walk rate, and weaker contact suggests to me that he doesn't see the ball as well from the right side. As he climbs the ladder, this could be further exacerbated.

In the field, Lee provides what will probably end up as an average to slightly plus defensive profile – he is a solid athlete with a good glove and plus arm. With how his body progresses, he will likely end up at either 3B or 2B, allowing him to tap into his power profile further (he hit 15 home runs in 2022, and probably has some more power in the tank).

All in all, Lee’s bat is going to be what propels him through the minors – he has the hit tool and talent to be a legitimate top of the lineup type of bat, though its to be determined whether or not he can stick as a switch hitter, or if he should switch to being a full time lefty. For the Orioles, Lee is a player further along in his development than the top high school talents, and is a very good bet to climb the minors ladder quicker. He could help facilitate the opening of a competitive window much faster, and can be an impact player for a number of years in Baltimore alongside similarly aged talents in Rutschman, Rodriguez, Kjerstad, and more.

Druw Jones - OF, Wesleyan (GA)

Pick Overview:

Call it a baseball fan’s dream: Jordan Lawlar, Corbin Caroll, Alek Thomas and Druw Jones in the same lineup with a late prime Ketel Marte… that would be must see tv. With Arizona taking Jones at number two, this scenario could become very possible. The player with the highest floor to ceiling ratio in the class (highest HS floor with probably the second highest ceiling in the draft), Jones brings five loud tools to the table in 2022. The most likely superstar on the draft board, Jones is probably the most likely draft eligible talent where a ceiling projection could be a 40/40 type of player. He brings a plus hit tool with solid recognition skills, produces a ton of power for his current frame (batspeed, batspeed, batspeed), and the combination of a plus arm and elite legs, Jones could well be a gold glove caliber center fielder as well. Passing up on a true five tool talent is something Arizona will not skip out on – it would be shocking to see them take anyone else if he doesn't go 1.1 (even if it means paying over slot).

Why Jones at 1.2:

To put it simply, Jones is the best player on the board in this year’s draft. Arizona has shown that they are not afraid of taking a top of the line talent that has yet to fill out into their body (Lawlar, Thomas, Carroll) – through their outstanding job of developing Thomas and Carroll, they now have a track record in player development to more than justify not only taking a HS outfielder again, but that they will be able to maximize the development of yet another one. Jones and Arizona simply fit, and if he goes at 1.2 to Arizona, I would not be surprised to see Jones in the show (making an impact) by 2025.

The Player:

Hit: 55

Power: 60

Run: 65

Throw: 55

Field: 65

Jones is a five tool talent with even more in the tank to grow into. With a hyper twitchy 6’4’’ 180 frame, Jones is capable of creating absurd power and speed across all aspects of the game. He will likely fill out much more as he gets older (see his dad, Andruw’s body when he was in the big leagues), but is definitely built leaner than his father. This will put him right in an athletic sweet spot – he will be extremely fast and twitchy while being able to pack on more muscle (and not worry about getting too bulky). Jones’ mobility also allows him to create fantastic separation on both sides of the ball. This is a major reason why he can access more power offensively, and throw as hard as 93 from the outfield at age 18.5.

Jones’ hit tool projects plus, and is buoyed on a few different factors. Primarily, it comes from his bat path and how he gets through the zone. Jones keeps things relatively simple in regards to movement – he has a slightly wider base and only features a rhythmic waggle of the hands prior to the onset of his load. Into load, Jones has an early bat set (has flashed both angled and vertical bat orientations into load) and has a small leg kick to help produce excess power. This simplicity help Jones in not shifting his eye line, and in staying in sync going into foot strike. At foot strike, Jones’ hands are in an optimal position, already dropped in on plane, but still back (creating separation, in a peak position to optimize ground force post block and into contact). This hand positioning maximizes Jones’ time in the hitting zone, giving him a much greater margin of error to work with in terms of preventing whiff, and squaring the baseball. Jones’ elite rotation (593 deg per second of pelvic rotation, 352 deg per second torso to arm) and bat speed (76.5 mph – MLB avg +/- 70) come to play from here. The net: a highly quick bat that stays in the hitting zone for a long time; all this points to is a very good hit tool, as he will be able to make adjustments and still have the rotational and bat speed to find barrels. It's very hard to grade out high level pitch recognition at the HS level due to a lack of top competition, but his 9 total strikeouts in 2022 (33 BB) showcase that there isn't a ton of whiff in the swing. From a power standpoint, all of the swing traits and data points mentioned above also contribute to Jones’ fantastic power. The elite rotational and bat speeds = a net of a ton of kinetic force coming at the baseball. The fact that he is on plane for a longer period via an early entry into the hitting zone also suggests he will be able to square balls regularly. Jones is able to take advantage of his fantastic twitch via his elite use of ground force, and fantastic block, which allows him to transfer that force into the barrel. As he grows and puts on more muscle, the high end power will come with it.

In the field, Jones takes advantage of his plus arm (OF velo 93), and elite speed (6.31 60 yd runner) to play a very high level center field. He reads balls extremely well in the outfield, and has as good a range as anyone in the draft class. On occasion, Jones will struggle to be firm on his front foot block during outfield throws, which can result in more short hops than his powerful arm would consistently put out (Why the arm grade is a 55). On the bases, Jones is an elite runner with 30+ SB potential year in and year out – as he gains muscle that might dip slightly, but Jones will always be a base stealing threat.

Holistically, Druw Jones is the most talented player on the board – if he continues on his trajectory, he could very easily be a superstar at the Major League level in the next few years.

Kevin Parada - C, Georgia Tech

Pick Overview:

The Texas Rangers will take Kevin Parada out of Georgia Tech with the third overall selection in 2022. Some consider Parada to be the best all around bat in 2022 – regardless of anyone's individual thoughts on that take, the fact that a catcher is in that conversation makes him extremely high value. Parada’s upside comes from the fact that he has immense power (26 HR in 2022, Max EV > 110). Not only that, but he has shown the ability to hit all offspeed pitches at a very high level. The Rangers are in a ery tricky financial spot in holding the third overall selection – with their 1.3. slot value sitting at just 2 million under their total pool for the draft, taking a college bat under slot (that could feature during Seager and Semien’s primes) is probably a smarter call then selling out for a high ceiling HS bat (Elijah Green). As a result, the best hitting catcher (and arguably best hitter) in the country would be a massive addition to the organization. Parada would be a great get at a discount for the Rangers at 1.3. If they do opt to go with a ceiling play, expect Elijah Green's name to be called, with Parada going 1.5 to the Nats.

Why Parada at 1.3:

Parada is a natural fit for the Rangers at 1.3. As it stands, the club lacks a truly elite catching prospect – with their top arms still getting through the minors, Parada would be able to create relationships with those pitchers while progressing through the minors at a faster rate than the best player left on the board at this point (Elijah Green might have the highest ceiling, but the hit tool could be make or break). Taking Parada at 3 could also help Texas work through their small pool allocation for 2022. Signing the catcher for +/- 5 million (similar to picks 7-10, where he would otherwise go) would give the team a couple more million dollars to play with for their 109th overall pick, where they might be able to pay well over slot for a high school talent that slips through the first two round. It would also allow them to better stack their draft in general. All in all, a player that could get to Texas quicker (in the window of their .5 Billion dollar stars’ primes), develop relationships with their future stars (Leiter, etc), and provide an impact for them makes Parada a great choice for the org.

The Player:

Hit: 55

Power: 60

Run: 40

Throw: 40

Field: 45

Parada is a catcher that offensively could probably be compared to a more powerful, right handed only Keibert Ruiz (with a slightly worse hit tool). The impact that Parada brings with the bat cannot be understated. He hits for contact at a fantastic rate, and does so with all pitches. In fact, Parada’s average exit velocities vs all pitch types are within 4 mph of each other, and he hit .406 vs breaking balls in 2022. Parada rarely strikes out (10.7% in 2022), and chases nearly uniformly vs all pitch types. This lack of a weakness in seeing pitch type out of hand and being able to adjust showcases massive maturity from the twenty year old. The only potential weakness (aside from level adjusted whiff and chase changes) is that he may struggle against elevated ride fastballs thrown at velo. During Parada’s load, he goes from the knob being pointed to the sky, to casting his barrel completely vertical. Subsequent to that hand action, he returns his bat angle to a slightly lower position at peak separation before bringing his hands forward. The only question this much movement up top raises is whether or not he can hit elevated ride fastballs at velocity. The answer, despite a small sample size thus far, has been that he cannot. In 2022, Parada whiffed on 50% of in zone fastballs thrown 95+, and the hardest exit velocity he could muster against 95+ 4 seamers was a lowly 78.7 mph (he chased over 40% of the time as well). This is by no means an attack on his ability to hit velo – he handled sinkers thrown 95+ exceptionally well. Any team drafting Parada will need to identify whether or not he will figure it out via seeing more high velo ride, or if the hand action ties him up when facing a verty four seam in the northern part of the zone. From a power standpoint, Parada is as good as you can ask for from a catcher. His exit velo ceiling is outstanding, and with his launch angle ranges favoring a home run heavy bat, he could very well be a 30+ home run a year catcher in the big leagues.

Defensively, Parada is a pretty average backstop when it comes to projection. He receives pretty well, and despite his movement to block being slightly subpar, it has drastically improved from a year ago. His arm is slightly below average, but its entirely possible that could be improved upon via a plyo or potential indian throwing club program. With continued growth, he could be a solid backstop at the big league level.

In totality, Parada is hands down the best backstop in this draft, and might have a better offensive ceiling than last year’s top overall pick, Henry Davis. An outstanding power bat with a plus contact tool as well, Parada projects to being a serious middle of the lineup threat in a big league lineup. For a Rangers org that is low on high end catching talent, Parada would be a fantastic fit for the club.

Jace Jung - 2B, Texas Tech

Pick Overview:

The Pittsburgh Pirates will select Texas Tech 2B Jace Jung with the fourth overall pick in this year’s draft. With the high school outfielders off the board, the Pirates will select their third straight college position player in a row in the first round. Jung is a player that will live and die with his bat. He is not a runner, and does not provide really any defensive value – but he can simply rake. Jung hit line drives over 40% of the time in 2022, and put up absolutely silly numbers in left v left situations (55.6% LD rate, struck out less often than vs RHP). He has a very good approach (walking more often than he punched - 18.1% BB rate), and has shown no fear in not only hitting, but driving breaking balls (LD rate over 50% vs both CB and SL with triple digit max EVs vs both). To add on further, Jung hit .429 with a 1.714 OPS vs fastballs thrown 95 mph or faster in 2022 – he does it all offensively. While the Pirates are loaded up on middle infielders, Jung represents a player with a very tangible, high ceiling that still may be able to go slightly below slot at 1.4. Following the Pirates recent draft tendencies, Jung would be a slam dunk at number four.

Why Jung at 1.4:

The Pirates are in a very interesting stage in their rebuild and bolstering of their farm system. They have top prospects dispersed throughout the entire system. While only a few have reached the big league level, the amount of top talent ranging from Rookie Ball through AA is the most the org has seen in the Ben Cherington era. With the team looking to see most of its top prospects reach the big league level around the 2024-25 range, they have the flexibility to take a high school player at fourth this year. However, with the 36th pick also in hand, it would not be surprising at all to see a sure offensive bet in Jung go at four, likely eliminating much risk of having to pay over slot for a first rounder. The last two first rounders to head to Pittsburgh were college bats – I would anticipate this trend will continue in 2022, and that we will be seeing Jung in a Bradenton or Greensboro jersey in short order.

The Player:

Hit: 60

Power: 60

Run: 40

Throw: 45

Field: 40

Jung might be the best pure hitter coming from college in the draft this year. His hit tool is outstanding – with the highest line drive rate at the top of the draft, Jung puts himself in a good position to get on all the time. His elite approach (18% BB rate, 13.7% chase) only bolsters his hit tool. The zone presence and path creativity to hit all pitches in all zones makes him a serious threat in any lineup. The open stance and twitchy, early back hip internal rotation may leave an evaluator with some concern when it comes to L v R changeups (as seen in his CH exit data), but Jung has shown that he is capable of making adjustments and at the very least can stay on plane and slap one the other way for a knock. Jung produces a ton of power from his frame. With max exit velos as high as 112.5, he is a serious threat given his line drive rate (26.8% barrels in 2022). Jung’s steeper attack and bat angles make him particularly dangerous against sinkers (another reason why he mashes spin), meaning ride fastball based arsenals are probably the best bet to try and navigate an at bat against Jung. All in all, Jung could very possibly be a .280 30 HR type of bat at the big league level, and with bat making him a high floor player, he’s a truly fantastic offensive draft bet.

Defensively, Jung leaves a lot to be desired. Looking at his build and projecting the future body, third base would be an ideal spot on the diamond for Jung. However, Jung’s arm is very unlikely to see him stick at the hot corner. With the combination of the average arm and Jung being a subpar mover, second base is probably the only spot on the field in which Jung could play at the big league level.

Holistically, the idea of drafting a second base/DH only candidate at fourth overall seems a little wild – in the case of Jung it's not even something worth thinking twice about. He has a great approach, hits velo, mashes spin, and has only one real whole that can be exploited by one specific pitch type with a very specific set of metrics. To have only one offensive hole coming out of college is truly next level, and I have very little doubt that Pirates PD would be able to patch that up (no pun intended) by the time Jung is ready to head to Pittsburgh. He’s an excellent high floor, high ceiling pick for the Pirates at 1.4.

Elijah Green - OF, IMG Academy (FL)

Pick Overview:

With the fifth overall pick in 2022, the Washington Nationals will select Elijah Green out of IMG Academy in Florida. There is a world where Green goes on to become the best player on the planet – whether or not that is ours will be determined in the coming years. Green unquestionably has the loudest tools in the draft: he produces elite power, has the speed to steal 30 bags, has a cannon of an arm, and reads balls in the outfield extremely well. The hit tool will be what makes or breaks Green in developing into a superstar. Widely considered the second best player in the draft behind Jones, Elijah Green has serious role 6 potential and is without a question the best player left on the board here at 1.5.

The Player:

Hit: 45

Power: 60

Run: 70

Throw: 60

Field: 60

Green is the definition of an elite four-tool talent where the fifth tool will be the deciding factor in how he turns out as a player. A shredded 6’3’’ 225, Green is mostly maxed out physically, and doesn’t need any more bulk. As a result, his progression through the minors will be more catered towards his baseball skills than in adding anything in the weight room. On the offensive side of the ball, Green’s operation is catered towards producing loads of power. Going into his load, Green shifts all of his weight onto his back foot as he leg kicks, reaching peak separation just before foot strike. This allows for Green to get the most power potential possible as he shifts forward. Upon plant, Green internally rotates his back hip late (he can do this due to his elite twitch – peak pelvic rotation = 611 deg/sec… 18 deg/sec faster than Druw Jones), seeing his barrel entering the hitting zone coinciding with full internal rotation. While this absolutely maximizes power, it also means late entry into the hitting zone, giving Green much less margin of error than the aforementioned Jones in regards to room to potentially square the ball on path. Green blocks at an elite level, which is a major reason why he is able to transfer the majority of power created via both the body and ground force into the baseball, resulting in absurd power (he has recorded exit velos in the triple digits at age 18). While blocking and going into contact, Green furthers his power potential while minimizing level change whiff (helps with seeing the ball deep into contact) by being extremely stacked. Green is an overall steeper path, which helps play into his overall power profile. Despite that, his elite twitch and bat speed means he can also catch up to and square high velo ride (despite less time in the hitting zone up top). Zone entry aside, Green has shown some trouble with recognizing left handed changeups, and may struggle with squaring high level gyro sliders as a result of his path issues and corresponding movement traits on the pitch. As a result, Green likely projects as an average contact bat with an elite-elite power profile.

Defensively, Green is capable of being a gold glove caliber center fielder. Potentially the fastest player in this draft, and one of the best fly ball readers in the class, there is absolutely nothing to dislike about Green in the field. His arm has been clocked at 94 mph as well, further bolstering his elite defensive package. On the bases, Green is and will continue to be a monster. Clocking in at 6.16 second on his 60 yard dash, and with very good pitcher reading skills, Green could well be a 40/40 candidate at the highest level.

All in all, if Green is capable of developing into an average to plus contact hitter at the big league level, he could well be a perennial all star/MVP type of player. He is arguably the most talented player in the draft when discussing ceiling, and is likely #2 behind Jones across the board. The Nats should be over the moon to get him at 1.5 if he is still on the board.

Zach Neto - SS/UT, Campbell

Pick Overview:

The Miami Marlins will select Zach Neto with the 6th overall pick in this year’s draft. Neto flew under the radar for a long time as a non power 5 shortstop, but with Campbell having a monster year, Neto finally got the recognition he deserved. Neto’s overall profile is very well rounded: he features a plus hit tool buoyed by his exceptional hunting of fastballs (47.1% LD rate, 35.3% Barrel %), flashes solid power (15 HR, 23 2Bs in 2022), and can function as a Swiss Army Knife in the field, letting his athleticism play up. Neto is also a threat on the bases – while he only has plus speed, he is a very good base stealer (19 steals, 1 CS). For the Marlins, Neto represents a player with a high floor that can be used in multiple positions (think Chris Taylor) that could reach the show and make an impact during their fast approaching window. It may be a bit of a shock seeing Neto’s name this early, but given the context of where Miami is, he is an excellent overall fit.

Why Neto at 1.6:

The Marlins will have a plethora of high talent options at sixth overall, so why take a player many project outside the top ten or even fifteen? The answer is pretty straightforward. The Marlins have shown that they develop arms at an extremely high level – over the last five years, their track record in development has not been equal on the offensive side. While players such as Jazz Chisholm come to mind, he was acquired only a year out from the show – he was more complete when Miami got a hold of him. It is still a small sample size and this is by no means any sort of attack on Miami PD (they are amongst the best in the sport), but taking a proven, high floor college bat with a ton of versatility and room to grow feels like the best choice given Miami’s timeline. With their star arms in the show and throwing at a high level, this year’s top pick (in an ideal world) would be a contributor to a contending Marlins team by 2025. Termarr Johnson would be the most likely candidate to be a high rising + high ceiling bat, but Johnson would represent a third high level offensive second baseman in the org (Jazz Chisholm and Kahlil Watson). While the org could try and throw him in left and hope he can play average defense, taking a player like Neto (that could play almost anywhere on the field -- Chris Taylor esque) eliminates the positional dilemma while still providing role 5 + play across the board. This isn't a ceiling pick, it's drafting a tangible and versatile talent that could make a massive impact on a contending Miami team in multiple spots (in short order). Neto isn’t necessarily as sexy a choice as Johnson, Holliday, or Collier, but he feels like a safe bet that is high impact on all fronts.

The Player:

Hit: 55

Power: 50

Run: 55

Throw: 55

Field: 50

Zach Neto is one of the most unique talents in this year's draft. While he doesn't have the contact bat of Johnson or the power of Jung, Neto is a Swiss Army Knife type that provides plus to plus plus skills across the board. Not only that, but Neto’s ability to barrel velocity is a little discussed aspect of his game which makes him one of the most high level and projectable bats in the draft. His hit tool, particularly against velo, is what buoys Neto’s overall profile. His approach is very good as seen in his 13.3% walk rate in 2022 (7.9% K rate), and despite having some chase against the higher velo secondaries (25.2% vs SL; 21.8% vs CH), Neto does not whiff in zone at all. Despite having a very loud leg kick and bat waggle, Neto’s elite path and adjustability saw him hit line drives on one of every three batted balls this year with about one in four (batted balls) being barrels. This high barrel and exit velo rate comes from the aforementioned power he creates via his leg kick, and an elite block through hip IR. What has me most bullish on Neto offensively however is how well the shortstop has handled high velocity. Despite it being a smaller sample size, Neto did not whiff on a single in zone pitch thrown 95 mph or faster, and his exit data output was frankly fantastic in 2022 (66% LD rate; 33% Barrel %, 95.5 avg EV; .577 wOBA). Generally, there are two major things that can hold hitters back as they climb the ladder post draft: trouble with spin, and trouble with velo. Sometimes players never get past either of these issues – to be able to say with confidence that Neto will hit high level fastballs already checks one of those off the list, helping raise his floor exponentially. In the power department, Neto flashes very good exit velocities (88.8 avg, 108.2 max) at a solid launch angle distribution. His power plays to all fields, and while he profiles more as a gap to gap type of bat, he definitely has 20+ home run potential year to year (he hit 15 HR in 2022).

Defensively, Neto brings an average to plus glove with an above average arm to the table. He is exceptional at reading balls, and his initial twitch helps elevate his overall athleticism in being able to field the ball in a good position. He has been a shortstop by trade at the college level, but frankly Neto is capable of playing anywhere on the infield (save 1B), and could probably stick in left as well. Having the flexibility to be able to move around the field is coveted in today’s game – while bringing an overall plus offensive package, the fact that Neto can do this further bolsters his value. On the bases, Neto flashes plus speed and is a real bag stealing threat. His value on the bases however comes from his ability to read pitchers and to accelerate quickly – think a much faster Jonathan Villar (just very good at reading arms). He could definitely steal 25+ a year at the big league level (19/20 SB in 2022).

All in all, Neto is a player that should in an ideal world be projected to a Chris Taylor type – he will provide a plus bat (with some power), can run, and play plus defense all over the diamond. While he might not be a superstar, what he brings is extremely high value, and could be extremely hard to replicate for orgs.

Termarr Johnson - 2B, Mays (GA)

Pick Overview:

The Chicago Cubs will take 2B Termarr Johnson with the seventh overall selection in the draft. While he isn't an elite athlete/mover, Johnson might be the best bat in the entire draft – and definitely has the best hit tool. With a swing reminiscent of Robinson Cano, Johnson produces a sick amount of power for his frame, and with the combo of his high level of discipline + barrel control, elite BBOs come quite easily and frequently. Defensively, his hands and arm are both average respectively, meaning that the only position on the field in which Johnson will likely stick is at 2B. Despite his defensive limitations, Johnson could be a perennial all star type of bat if his progression continues into and through affiliate ball. The Cubs are in a state of rebuilding and will be looking to take the absolute best player on the board. At this point, Johnson represents the highest offensive ceiling while also bringing a very high floor for a prep bat. This is a fantastic match.

Why Johnson at 1.7:

Johnson and the Cubs are a fantastic fit for where the club is in its rebuild. With the majority of the org’s top end talent (PCA, Hernandez, Triantos, etc) all in the lower levels of the minors, adding a top end high school bat makes sense for their timeline. If all goes right in PD, Johnson and Triantos would be the only two top end second basement – with Triantos having the arm to move to third, this wouldn’t remotely be an issue for the org. Johnson could well be an offensive superstar – for an org looking to add top end talent regardless of age, Johnson is a perfect fit. The team uses a lot of data in their process and development, which could also provide Johnson with a major boost in digging through the margins to maximize his athleticism and defensive prowess. Johnson won’t be rushed through the system, giving him ample time to maximize before getting the call up to Wrigley. This could not be a better match for both sides.

The Player:

Hit: 65

Power: 60

Run: 45

Throw: 45

Field: 50

Termarr Johnson is without a doubt the most complete prep bat on the offensive side of the ball in this draft. Johnson is mostly physically maxed out from a weight/musculature standpoint, though its possible that he could add further mobility as he gets on a pro ball performance program. He is a sturdy 5’10’’ 175 with a very muscular lower half, which helps Johnson produce massive power at the plate. Offensively, Johnson’s advanced hit tool starts with his elite approach. His pitch recognition is second to none in this class, and in being able to read pitches out of the hand, Johnson excels in adjusting his path from the get go to barrel all pitch types. Johnson’s early vertical bat shift further bolsters his hit profile, as he is able to access early and fast entry into the hitting zone – the net of this is Johnson getting on plane very early on in the flight of the pitch. Johnson’s soft landing coming off of his leg kick allows him to better stay stacked (and keep his eye line level), and with his early entry and bat speed, Johnson’s hit tool is primed to be top notch. Johnson also produces an absolute ton of power for a player of his size. Along with his outstanding power creation and conversion of energy from potential to kinetic via his leg kick, well timed IR, and block, Johnson’s elite hand (and corresponding bat) speed are creme de la creme (2799 deg/sec = 647 deg/sec faster than Elijah Green’s hands). The early entry with elite mechanics and path result in very loud exit velos (flirts with triple digits at age 18), giving Johnson a rare combo of a top of the line hit tool and loads of power potential.

Defensively, Johnson is locked in as a second baseman. He is very muscle bound, and like most bodies will likely lose some mobility as he ages – this means his average to plus speed now will likely regress to fringe subpar levels. His glove is overall solid, yet his arm isn't quite strong enough to be able to stick at short or third. In general, Johnson will provide average defensive value, and may be able to steal 5-10 bags a year.

All in all, drafting Johnson is taking an elite bat. Much like Jace Jung, his value to a team will be almost exclusively on the offensive side of the ball – despite that, his total package still projects as a role 5 + talent due to how advanced he truly is. With an org like Chicago, Johnson will be able to have the time to develop, maximizing every aspect of his game before Cubs fans get to watch him every day.

Gavin Cross - OF, Virginia Tech

Pick Overview:

The Minnesota Twins will select Gavin Cross with the eighth overall pick in this year’s draft. Cross is the definition of a hitter to suit the modern game. With flatter attack and bat angles, he is outstandingly prepared to hit ride fastballs. Additionally, Cross has shown that he is capable of squaring up all types of pitches, with his max exit velos being triple digits against all pitch types, and over 110 mph vs both FB and CH respectively. For the Twins, an organization that teaches the optimization of ideal launch angle distributions – Cross is a perfect fit. His strengths are the strengths of Twins PD, and I would absolutely love to see a world where David Popkins (one of the best hitting minds/coaches in baseball) gets to bring a player like Cross into his own. If there is any pick and org that I think will be most likely to get the max out of their 2022 first rounder, it would be Cross and Minnesota at 1.8.

Why Cross at 1.8:

As mentioned above, Cross and the Twins are a perfect fit from a developmental standpoint. When evaluating any pick, orgs not only take who the best player on the board is into account, but which player will likely end up the best in their own hands as well. Gavin Cross may well be the best player left at this stage, but is without a question the best fit for the club in regards to potential maximization. Additionally, the Twins organization does not have a ton of high impact/potential all star outfielders in their system (Austin Martin being the only one, but spending majority of time at SS in AA). With a likely start in Cedar Rapids, Cross would be poised to climb the ladder relatively quickly with the Midwest League getting relatively hitter friendly during the peak of the summer. It's an outstanding landing spot for both the player and the organization.

The Player:

Hit: 55

Power: 55

Run: 55

Throw: 50

Field: 55

Gavis Cross is an ideal hitter for a modern line up thanks in part to the functionality of his swing. Most evaluators grade Cross as a hit first bat with a lot of power in hand. While I feel this is a fair way of putting it, Cross likely profiles as a .285, 25-30 HR type of hitter in an ideal world. This would put the hit and power grades at about the same. The reason I feel this way comes from how his attack angles play – he is a relatively flatter type of approach, which means he does an outstanding job of hitting elevated pitches (ISO over .385 in all three elevated quadrants). In today’s game, where low-slot ride has been found as an ideal fastball profile, Cross serves as a fantastic counter. Additionally, Cross’ twitch sees him hit velocity as well – in 2022, he posted a .548 wOBA and .750 BABIP vs 95 mph +, with only a 23.5% in zone whiff rate. If that isn't attractive enough, Cross’ 17 home runs in ‘22 could be seen as an undervaluation of his power as a result of his outstanding exit data and lower overall launch angles. While he may not be a 35 HR a year candidate, he produces similar power with less loft, making him project as a doubles monster that still presents a HR threat in every at bat. The only weakness in his swing is one that comes with most flat attack angle type bats: trouble with depth. Of all pitches, the one in which Cross struggles most with is the curveball. The positive that can be taken from this is that his higher chase and whiff vs CB appears to not come from a lack of recognition – when analyzing film its clear to tell he sees the ball out of hand, he just simply does not adjust his bat path steep enough to make consistent flush contact against it. This is a much easier problem to solve than recognizing spin, and the Twins org will be primed to help Cross make that adjustment at an affiliate.

Defensively, Cross uses his plus speed to help him track down balls at a plus level in a corner outfield spot. His reads are average to slightly plus, making it possible, though unlikely that he would stick in center at his current level. While his arm is slightly above average, it probably isn't ideal for right field, making left the most likely eventual destination (wouldn't be shocking to see him in CF at an affiliate to try and improve reads/see if he can stick). Cross is also a plus runner, who stole a perfect 12 bases on 12 attempts in 2022 – he will bring a threat on the bases that could translate at a higher level.

All in all, Cross is a perfect fit for Minnesota at eight overall. He fits the org’s strengths, and is the best player left on the board at this juncture of the first round. It's a great match for both sides and frankly a no brainer at 1.8.

Cam Collier - 3B, Chipola JC (GA)

Pick Overview:

The Kansas City Royals will select Cam Collier with the ninth overall pick in the 2022 draft. Collier (17), decided to reclassify before the season, enrolling at Chipola JC in order to become draft eligible in 2022. Collier’s 6’2’’ 210 frame is pretty much maxed out, so his develop will be centered around his baseball skills. A hit first third baseman that still showcases power potential, Collier is an all around talent. He has shown some path issues which could prevent the hit tool from reaching a role 6 level as many have projected (I have him on the lower end of a 55 for now), but regardless he looks poised to produce at a plus level both at the plate and in the field. The Royals are an org that are not afraid of taking and developing high level high school bats, so I would expect them to pull the trigger on the best player in a future position of need. Collier’s silky swing projects to put him in the top to middle of the lineup range (likely 2 or 5), and his reclassification signals that he wants to develop with the best coaches in the business. While Holliday is also still on the board, I feel that the more fine tuned bat of Collier (with a tangible ceiling) is the way KC will go at 1.9.

Why Collier at 1.9:

Collier and the Royals are a very good fit here at 9th overall. While Jackson Holliday is also still on the board, Kansas City (if they feel the players are of similar projection) will probably go with the player that best fits positional need. While Holliday is the all around better athlete, Collier’s swing – particularly if he gets his path down probably has a much higher floor. This isn't simply a matter of hit tool – Collier’s arm is significantly better than Holliday as well (despite his speed being worse). If Witt were to extend in KC, the decision would ride on if the Royals would rather have a second baseman or a third baseman. In this case, I feel KC will go with the player they need to change less to get both high impact and a shorter climb out of. With Collier being physically very mature, I would expect the club to take him and immediately attack his bat path in development to get him up to the show/optimized in quicker order.

The Player:

Hit: 50

Power: 50

Run: 45

Throw: 55

Field: 50

Cam Collier brings a plus profile essentially across the board. The 6’2’’ 210 third baseman is pretty maxed out physically (limiting his power profile to plus at max), but giving him plenty of time with his age to work on his baseball skills to max out his potential. Collier’s frame is very lanky, with his long levers coming into focus via the leverage he creates in his very smooth swing. Mechanically, Collier does a very good job of staying simple. He features a slight leg kick, and goes vertical with his bat before a very light foot strike. He does have a tendency to shift his hand positioning or even counter rotate with his back shoulder, which leads into what can be at times an inconsistent bat path. Additionally, Collier oftentimes gets jammed against velo fastballs as a result of his slower hips and the late path entry – as a result, most of Collier’s success against high level pitching has been middle/away or with an oppo first type of approach. While this can be addressed via encouraging earlier hip IR and preventing counter rotation, it will be a work in progress as he climbs the minor league ladder; if he is to succeed in making these adjustments, the inner half of the plate would open up much more for Collier, and we may see some more pull side power as well. Collier creates solid separation and is a good blocker, which helps him optimize power output when hitting through the baseball (though as mentioned prior, it's mostly oppo – not getting everything out of the body), but his being physically maxed makes it tough to sell him having any more than role 5 power production in the best of worlds, even if he makes said changes.

Defensively, Collier has the makings of a very good third baseman. His reads are mostly plus, he does a very good job of positioning his body into throws, and with what is a legitimate role 5 + arm, he absolutely projects as an everyday third baseman at the highest level. While he isnt an elite runner, he has shown enough twitch to be a reasonable threat on the bases and to cover more than enough ground at the third base position.

All in all, Collier looks like an average to plus everyday big leaguer across the board. When it comes down to it, his ability to make the necessary changes to open up the inner half and get on plane/achieve high level impact more often will determine whether he is an average player or a very good one.

Jackson Holliday - SS, Stillwater (OK)

Pick Overview:

Like father, like son. With the tenth overall pick, the Colorado Rockies will select SS Jackson Holliday, son of club legend Matt Holliday. Holliday is a prime example of an elite prep athlete that has yet to grow into his frame. Very physically immature, Holliday still produces a solid amount of power from his frame, though it is his feel for the barrel and being able to consistently make solid contact that has put him in the top five on many prospect lists. Holliday’s swing could be described as extremely aesthetically attractive, with it being extremely efficient and smooth through the zone. Holliday would represent a top of the line middle infield prospect for a Colorado org that has emphasized taking athletic outfielders over the last few years. With recent first rounder Benny Montgomery being another athletic prep bat, the Rockies are clearly willing to take their time to develop a seriously tooled up group. With Holliday being the best player left on the board (amongst other factors including his Rockies connection), I fully expect the club to take him -- even significantly over slot if he’s still available at 1.10.

Why Holliday at 1.10:

With a lot of room left to grow and a very polished overall profile, Holliday has found himself as high as the top three overall picks on many draft boards (heavy links to Texas). If it weren’t for my pool manipulation call with Parada, I likely would have slotted Holliday into the 3 spot as well (taking up that full slot value). Holliday features an outstanding swing with a hyper twitchy build and a lot more room to grow power wise. For a Rockies org that values top level athletes, Holliday would represent an opportunity to kill two birds with one stone: he fits the high level athlete profile, and is the best player left on the board. Additionally, Colorado has a much larger bonus pool to play with than most other teams at this point in the first, so they can afford to give the shortstop top five money to ensure they get his signature. Seeing another Holliday in a Rockies uniform would be a very fun full circle moment – if he is available at 1.10, I fully expect that to happen.

The Player:

Hit: 55

Power: 55

Run: 55

Throw: 50

Field: 50

Jackson Holliday is the definition of a highly athletic yet polished prep bat with a lot of room to grow. A lanky 6’1’’ 175, Holliday clearly still has filling out to do, but is still very twitchy and explosive where he needs to be. Mechanically, Holliday’s swing looks highly professional – featuring a leg kick with an early angle set, Holliday primes himself to be able to drive the baseball. He has a longer stride, but still manages to not crash onto it, staying light on the front foot into his plant. This stride and landing allow Holliday to access more power via a momentum shift forward, while not throwing away ground force potential via a poor block or a shift away from stacking. Holliday creates a ton of separation upon plant and pre IR, allowing for even more power potential as he drops his hands into the hitting zone. His elite lower body strength and mobility allow for Holliday to sink deeper into his glutes as he makes contact, again reinforcing power, but also showing off his holistic athleticism. From a contact standpoint, he has outstanding feel for the bat – his barrel control is amongst the best in the draft, and his ability to consistently change path if needed to make contact or achieve better impact is very advanced. From a power standpoint, Holliday still has a lot of growing to do. There aren't any alterations needed from the swing to add power – he simply needs to age, get on a professional performance/nutrition program, and grow as he is meant to. His father was a massive power bat; while this is by no means a way of gauging Jackson’s future strength, it's at least a small barometer for it given that genes do play a factor, and that I don’t have access to any of his bio data the way an org might.

Defensively, Holliday is again very polished. He has an outstanding internal clock on his throws from short, though his arm is not exactly top of the line (its probably good enough to stick at an average level at SS). His glove and overall reads project about average to slightly plus, and he should be quick enough to snag 15 or so bases in a year with repeated attempts.

All in all, taking Holliday is betting on an athlete, and that his polished swing will play up further as he gets bigger and stronger. He is a ceiling pick, and the Rockies have loved taking those types of players in recent drafts. It would be shocking to see him fall below this spot if he even makes it to 10.

Dylan Lesko - RHP, Buford (GA)

Pick Overview:

With the eleventh pick in the 2022 draft, the New York Mets will select Dylan Lesko out of Buford, GA. Despite having suffered a UCL tear in his senior season (resulting in Tommy John Surgery), Lesko remains one of the top pitching prospects in this draft. With a fastball riding into the upper 90s, a wipeout runner of a changeup, and a solid curveball, Lesko’s arsenal is already solid but still has room to grow. His frame is not yet fully filled out, and with his hip, trunk, and shoulder mobility appearing plus (no data), Lesko likely has more velo to access as he gets stronger post surgery. While this may seem like a strange selection for the Mets after the Kumar Rocker saga a year ago, they are a club with a lot of veteran talent that has no need to rush any prospects up. Lesko could be slow cooked, only getting the call when he is ready a few years from now.

Why Lesko at 1.11:

The Mets are in a great spot as an organization – they are extremely successful at the highest level with many of their players locked up. While they did decide against signing Kumar Rocker as a result of an injury risk last year, taking a potential ace where the injury is known (and the club can oversee his rehab), is a completely different story. Lesko, if he recovers well and develops as expected will be more than worth the wait. Lesko is the best player left on the board at this point, and will be a hot commodity – it wouldn't be surprising at all to see him ask for over slot money. If the Mets aren’t willing to pay that at 11, the Tigers probably will at 12.

The Player:

Fastball: 60

Changeup: 60

Curveball: 50

Control: 55

Lesko is an arm that takes advantage of his athleticism from the jump in his pitching motion. This can be seen clearly from leg lift on, as he begins his windup with a high raise where his knee reaches his chest. During this leg lift, Lesko does get some counter rotation from his shoulders, but is able to hold it until later on, allowing for max force usage into and after internal rotation (the trunk positioning not leaking force gives him more to work with). As Lesko separates into his stride, he uses his athleticism to sink into his glutes and hold counter rotation through his hinge. Lesko does a fantastic job of retracting his scaps, not only achieving fantastic separation via plus plus mobility in his back, but times uplift and the start of his arm action outstandingly with his foot strike. When Lesko internally rotates, his trunk mobility and thoracic extension allow him to add further power into the throwing mechanism. Lesko releases from a high ¾ slot. In other words, Lesko does everything one needs to do in order to throw triple digits, and without accessing that back hip via a hike still has 1-2 free mph to access – quite a scary thought.

Lesko’s fastball is his bread and butter primary pitch, and is a major reason why he sits so high on many draft boards. Sitting about 95 and topping at over 100, the fastball has a very vertical shape and orientation (20 IVB, 7 Hmov as a result of Lesko’s high ¾ slot. Due to its aforementioned shape, Lesko looks to take advantage of the verty profile via attacking bats both the northern and southern parts of the zone (what's ideal is rel height contingent – I don’t have that data, but it appears taller). Maintaining max efficiency will be key in pro ball, as the velo is already there.

Lesko’s changeup is his next best offering, playing very nicely off of the fastball. Sitting slightly faster than his curveball (upper 70s to low 80s), the pitch is not about achieving wild movement (though it does come late) – its shape tunnels well with the fastball, allowing for a lot of whiffs and mishits via front to back play. This difference opens the door for changeup use against RHH as well, unlike many arms that are boxed in on throwing breaking balls vs same side and CH vs opposite. Lesko’s changeup also features a lot of late movement; the fade/run it achieves late in ball flight is capable of running away from left handers while forcing very poor impact from right handed bats. His feel on the pitch is outstanding for a kid his age and will only continue to grow as he gets older. This is a plus pitch without a question.

Lesko’s curveball achieves a lot of overall movement, but is an average pitch overall despite having potential. He supinates very well, resulting in what can be either a vertical or more horizontal axis on a curveball. The net of the horizontal shift along with his release height is a good amount of both vertical and horizontal movement (though he usually targets more of a prioritization on top spin/vertical drop). Additionally, Lesko is capable of spinning the pitch at over 3000 rpm, meaning that he has a very good feel for supination (could add to a SL -- see below). Despite all these pluses, his lack of solid feel for the pitch raises concerns of him being able to achieve its best possible shape at a high enough level. His velocity on the curve is in the upper 70s and can flirt with 80. If he can add some more velo to the offering it will play up further and may be able to be plus – if he can emphasize eliminating a bump/getting his vertical release angle to play negative, the pitch will only become more difficult to pick up and hit. However, due to its deficiencies, an org needs to commit to one shape in pitch design, and should probably teach him a slider or cutter (or both) depending on what fits the orientation of his change/the rest of the arsenal best.

From a command standpoint, Lesko does a good job of keeping the ball in and around the zone, particularly on his fastball and changeup. The curveball feel is concerning, though as mentioned prior he should probably add a slider or cutter (being able to throttle it may also help him with strike throwing on a supination heavy/glove side mov oriented pitch)

Daniel Susac - C, Arizona

Pick Overview:

The Detroit Tigers will take Arizona catcher Daniel Susac with the 12th overall selection in the 2022 draft. Susac is a line drive machine (38.6% in 2022), and is capable of producing some serious exit velocities as well. Originally a switch hitter, Susac changed over to pretty much hitting exclusively from the right side this year; he will most likely do so in pro ball. Sussc is not an offensive only catcher as well – he brings some value to the defensive side of the ball as well. Susac has a fantastic arm that could play both behind the plate and at third base if the Tigers decide to give him a go at the hot corner. His receiving and framing skills are average, so he brings an overall average to plus defensive grade in addition to his potent bat. While Detroit does have a top of the line catching prospect in Dillon Dingler, there is no such thing as having too much catching depth (LAD). With Ryan Sienko as the Field Coordinator (former LAD catching coordinator that brought up the likes of Smith, Ruiz, Cartaya, etc), the maximization of Susac’s potential behind the dish would be as close to guaranteed as you can get. Susac is a very strong get for Detroit at 1.12.

Why Susac at 1.12:

The Tigers and Susac are an absolutely fantastic match for a multitude of reasons. First off, as mentioned above, Ryan Sienko may well be the best in the business at getting catchers to their max potential. Detroit has also shown that they are very good with bats and in getting their top guys through their system in short order (see Torkelson, Dingler, Greene, Badoo, etc). With the club seeing some of its top prospects hit the show while playing in one of the weaker divisions in baseball (current state), a window of contention is definitely achievable in the next three to five years. Thus, a college bat makes sense at 1.12. Detroit has very much taken a pick the best man available approach the last few years, but even sticking to that strategy, Susac would be a likely selection. Even if he doesn't stick behind the plate, much like Dingler, Susac is an athlete that has the tools to play elsewhere (3B). It would not be surprising at all to see him alternating between catcher and third in West Michigan this summer if the Tigers do in fact pull the trigger on the Arizona backstop.

The Player:

Hit: 50

Power: 55

Run: 40

Throw: 60

Field: 45

Susac has the potential to be a plus plus contact hitter if he is capable of fixing his chase and whiff issues. His line drive rate of 38.6% was elite in 2022; not only that, but Susac absolutely mashes fastballs (46% LD rate, .404 BA, max ev 112+ vs FB), and despite some swing and miss, barrels spin at a very high rate (28% vs SL, 26.7% vs CB). Much like some of the other top college bats in this class, Susac has a flatter oriented batpath (as seen in the FB success), but has also shown that he can make the adjustment to steeper approaching pitches – Susac’s wOBA was over .400 against all pitch types but the CB this year, (CB struggles expected with a flatter swing). What currently holds Susac back from anything over a role 5 hit grade (and could even bump it down to a role 4) is his trouble with breaking balls. While his exit data is still outstanding against spin, its what happens every time the ball doesn't go in play. In 2022, Susac chased on 45.2% of SL, and 38.8% of CB he faced (he only walked in 6.7% of his at bats this year as well). Assuming further regression by MILB level, it would appear a disaster is brewing if he can’t learn to see spin (+/- 30% in zone whiff vs both as well). Again, his barrel rates against breaking balls can offset the miss slightly, but it is definitely the largest area of concern for his overall profile. From a power standpoint, Susac can really bring the thunder. Even though his flatter angles limit his home run potential, Susac has hit balls as hard as 112.9 mph this year – he has also shown that he can produce those exit velocities against nearly all pitch types. Much like Gavin Cross and Jacob Berry, Susac will hit home runs, but due to the nature of how his swing works he will be more of a high octane gap hitter.

Defensively, Susac could wind up playing either third or catcher. As a catcher, Susac’s arm is what makes him a high value candidate for any club. His arm is definitely a role 6 caliber weapon, and with improved receiving and blocking skills, Susac definitely still has the ability to be an every day backstop. That being said, the strength of his arm opens up the possibility of Susac playing third as well. Its likely the easiest positional transition for him, and would allow that weapon of an arm to still be put to use. Susac is an average runner for a catcher, but is good enough of a mover to still be able to stick at the hot corner – he is not a base stealing threat.

All in all, Susac is a high ceiling play at catcher for Detroit. With the help of their outstanding coaching resources, he will be more than capable of maximizing his defensive capabilities. If he can learn to see and adjust to spin, he will walk more, punch less, and see far more opportunities to let his first round power do the talking.

Cooper Hjerpe - LHP, Oregon State

Pick Overview:

The Los Angeles Angels will select Oregon State left-hander Cooper Hjerpe with the thirteenth overall selection in this year’s draft. Hjerpe is without a question the most polished college pitcher in the class. Featuring a mostly complete four pitch mix (FB, CH, SL, CT), Hjerpe will likely require far less development than other pitchers in this draft before he is big league ready. Hjerpe features a low slot ride fastball sitting in the low 90s, and a slider/changeup combo that will leave analysts and fans salivating (near zero vert CH with 18+ inches of run, similar velo and vertical orientation on SL, 16 inches of sweep). For an Angels team that has shown a commitment to developing arms in the Minasian era, Hjerpe is right up the team’s alley and would be a great pick for the club at 1.13.

Why Hjerpe at 1.13:

Hjerpe seems like a player that is tailor-made for the Angels organization in 2022. The only projected mid first bat with a year to year all star ceiling (that plays the field) left on the board at this point is Eric Brown – With the Angels org prioritizing pitching at this juncture of their championship roster build (and a need for high end starters in the rotation), Hjerpe can kill two birds with one stone. He is an arm that has very few if any mechanical deficiencies, has a complete arsenal, and has shown that he can handle as full a workload as you can get on the amateur circuit (doing so in dominant fashion). Whenever you have a roster consisting of a prime Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani – amongst other all stars, there is an expectation for the team to be able to compete for championships. Right now, what is holding the club back most from achieving that goal is starting pitching. The organization is aware of this, and Hjerpe represents a potential high/fast riser with a tangible ceiling that the club can develop and maximize relatively quickly. It's as good a match as peanut butter and chocolate.

The Player:

Fastball: 55

Changeup: 60

Slider: 55

Cutter: 50

Control: 55

Hjerpe is an excellent future mid rotation piece (likely 3 starter) that could have a real impact for a big league club in short order. Mechanically, Hjerpe is a specimen. He oozes of shoulder and hip mobility. While many undersell Hjerpe’s value due to a lack of fastball velocity, Hjerpe does everything necessary to throw hard (he is extremely efficient and clean). Hjerpe showcases his outstanding hip and groin mobility via a very high leg raise, which is followed by an unorthodox long and closed off extension. During this extension, Hjerpe retracts his scaps fantastically; the timing of his arm at foot strike is highly indicative of utilizing maximum ground force (to help access velo), and Hjerpe achieves a very good amount of hip/shoulder separation. The closed off stride means that Hjerpe needs to angle his upper body different than an upright/stacked arm in order to access all force generated – he does this very well, while still being able to keep his shoulders and hips at a relatively similar angle (helping offload force from the elbow at peak flexion). Through IR, Hjerpe showcases his elite shoulder mobility before releasing at a very wide and low ¾ slot (a 6’4’’ arm throwing at a release height of 5’4’’ is very tough to handle).

Hjerpe’s fastball is the definition of why low-slot ride is effective. Coming from a 5’4’’ release height, and 3’6’’ wide, the fastball presents a very tough angle for bats to handle. Add on its 15 inches of vert (which play up as a result of the release traits – think Max Meyer), and the pitch can play above what it may read on a trackman machine. Sitting in the low 90s and topping at 95, Hjerpe’s fastball plays best up in the zone, where bats whiffed 30%, while chasing at a 25.9% clip. If an org can find a way to get this pitch to sit in the upper velos of his current range (93-95), this is a borderline or even legit 60 grade fastball.

Hjerpe’s changeup is somehow an underrated offering, with most evaluators grading it around a 50 or low role 5 type of pitch. Again, hampered by many due to its velo, the CH is much better than many rate it. Essentially a right handed sweeper, Hjerpe achieves nearly zero vert with a further 18.5 inches of run on the 77-82 mph pitch. Hjerpe’s changeup also tunnels fantastically with his slider. With their velocities 1.5 mph apart on average, and nearly identical vertical profiles (vertical break, and higher vertical velocity vectors suggesting they both drop later), it can be very difficult to handle the separation/tunnel. His feel for the changeup is another element that gives it such high marks. In 2022, batters whiffed on over 50% of Hjerpe’s changeups (51.9%), and chased at a rate of 37.4% – no matter where you read otherwise, Hjerpe’s changeup is a damn good pitch.

The slider is probably Hjerpe’s most highly regarded offspeed in the public sphere. Featuring 16.5 inches of sweep (that are further bolstered by his rel side), the perceived cut on the pitch is frankly ridiculous. The fact that the slider pairs so well with the changeup only makes this mid to upper 70s option more dangerous (51.1% whiff, 21.8% chase in ‘22). While adding some velo could further bolster its profile, it would not be advisable at the cost of the elite movement in which Hjerpe achieves. The slider is a very good pitch as is.

Hjerpe’s cutter is the only pitch that really needs fine tuning. From a velocity standpoint, it sits at a fantastic middle ground between the fastball and his other offspeeds. While he should try and keep that velo similar (1-2 mph slower would be ok), the shape definitely needs work. Hjerpe does a good job of keeping the vert well over zero, but gets little to no cut on the pitch. We know Hjerpe is an outstanding supinator (as seen in SL), so getting him to drop the vert down 4-5 inches while adding the same in cut would probably be a better option for him (think 82-85 @ 5 vert 5 horizontal). This would offer Hjerpe the same front to back play between FB CT SL, while giving him more of a true cutter shape (and hopefully tunneling better out of hand with the SL). It has work to do, but Hjerpe’s cutter definitely has potential, and would be a very useful option at higher levels.

From a control standpoint, Hjerpe does a very good job of staying in and around the zone. His in zone rates are still very solid, but with how his pitches profile (FB best elevated, offspeeds moving a ton and getting chase), he doesn't need to alter much in regards to targeting and staying around the zone. Hjerpe punched 39% of the hitters he faced while walking only 5.5%. Strike throwing is not an issue.

Justin Crawford - OF, Bishop Gorman (NV)

Pick Overview:

With the fourteenth pick, the New York Mets will select Justin Crawford (OF) out of Bishop Gorman HS. Crawford is the definition of a top of the lineup center fielder. He is an absolute elite mover, and with a plus contact bat and glove, he projects to be a serious threat across the board for opposing lineups. Crawford, the son of former All-Star Carl Crawford stands a lanky 6’3’’, and has not even remotely filled out yet. He will likely stay more lean, but the addition of further muscle could make him even more explosive, and could see his overall power play about average. For the Mets, who have plenty of time to develop high school talent, taking a second prep player (this time a bat) in Crawford makes total sense and is frankly a pretty good match given NYM traded away PCA (their best top of the lineup CF prospect) last year to the Cubs.

Why Crawford at 1.14:

Much like the decision to take Lesko with the eleventh pick, the Mets will implement the same strategy in taking Crawford at 14. The club is loaded up with veterans at the big league level, and has no pressing needs in regards to rushing a player up. As a result, taking a ceiling play in the highly talented Crawford would be a fantastic option. Crawford brings a skillset that does not exist in the Mets org at the present – they do not have a player that brings a plus hit tool with elite speed, and the potential to cover the ground he can in CF. Prior to their Baez trade, Pete Crow-Armstrong would have been that candidate, but he is now in the Cubs org. Crawford has a little more power in the tank at present due to mechanical shortcomings, and as he fills out more its possible it could play up to a 45/50 grade. Crawford is the 3rd best prep outfielder after Jones and Green – for a club lacking top tier OF prospects, he’s a no-brainer call at 14.

The Player:

Hit: 55

Power: 40

Run: 70

Throw: 50

Field: 55

Crawford projects to be an overall plus contact hitter due to his very quick hands, and outstanding feel for contact/the barrel. Crawford stands relatively tall in his stance, with a slight knee bend and his feet relatively even. Going into his load, Crawford shifts his weight to his back side, with his front toe just leaving the ground going into his stride. His hands shift back quite a bit during his load, creating a lot of separation (potential power for his frame), and he does a very good job of keeping them back while maintaining his upper body counter rotation going into foot strike and internal rotation. Crawford has a pretty long stride for how he sets up, and can land closed and a little heavy on the front foot. Despite that, he still does a good job of keeping his weight (and thus power) on his back side until IR. As he internally rotates, Crawford’s back hip can be cut off via the closed landing, which prevents full power output from the energy created. He does a pretty good job of keeping his torso stacked, though it can be inconsistent at times. His hands enter the hitting zone relatively early, and Crawford flashes a pretty flat attack angle – this means he should be able to handle high velocity ride fastballs at a very high level. Crawford’s swing is very “down hill oriented”, which should be conducive to creating more power. The combination of that and his outstanding rotational twitch makes me believe that as he fills out more and fine tunes his mechanics in, he should be able to flash average or maybe even plus power at times.

Defensively, Crawford’s speed makes him an unbelievable asset in center field. Despite reading balls and coming through grounders at a relatively average to plus level, the speed gives him nearly unlimited range. Having this range completely changes the way a team can build the rest of their outfield, as he will be poised to run down balls most CFs wont sniff. Improving his ball tracking will be an area of emphasis, as it's not out of the question that an improvement there could lead to Crawford being a top of the line defensive center fielder. On the bases, Crawford is poised to be a threat of threats. He reads pitchers very well, and the combination of his speed and rotational explosivity make him project as an elite base stealer.

All in all, Crawford looks like a top of the lineup center fielder that will provide top of the line defensive value and a constant threat on the bases. If his reads in the field and mechanics + approach can be maximized, its very possible Crawford has the ceiling of a regular all star. The bat floor might be low as a result of the small sample size against top of the line prep competition, but his intangibles drastically elevate his floor and lower the overall risk taken with the slot value/expected signing bonus he will get.

Jett Williams - SS, Rockwall-Heath (TX)

Pick Overview:

With the fifteenth overall pick, the San Diego Padres will select Jett Williams, a shortstop out of Rockwall-Heath, Texas. Williams, despite his short stature is extremely strong and athletic; buoyed by his plus hit tool, speed, and great defensive profile, Williams presents as an all around asset that can take on multiple roles for a club. While listed as a shortstop, he will likely make a transition to 2B in pro ball, but will be able to play as a Swiss Army Knife all over the infield the way SD has used Ha Seong Kim. The contact first bat makes a lot of sense for the Padres organization due to their trends of taking prep bats, and not being afraid of taking and successfully developing shorter, hit first middle infielders (Euribel Angeles, Ha Seong Kim). Overall, the fact that he fits a player type they both like and know how to develop makes the pick feel like their most likely selection at fifteen.

Why Williams at 1.15:

Williams feels like a sure fire pick for the Padres at fifteen due to how the club has tended to operate their draft room in recent years, and for how good a player development fit he is. AJ Preller and company have never been afraid to cash in on high school bats they feel can be real impact makers (last 5 rd 1 picks have been HS, 4 of 5 bats), and Williams would be yet another example of one. The org also has a track record of taking and developing players of a similar profile. Much like Williams, Ha Seong Kim is a shorter infielder that brings plus defense and a contact first bat (with some power). While Kim hasn't panned out on the offensive side, the Padres org has done an outstanding job of developing both contact first and prep bats. If they were to develop Williams, they would probably see him as being exactly what they thought Kim’s ceiling was. Additionally, being in a smaller market while paying their arms, Tatis, and Machado, they need a constant cycle of younger bats to come through and make an impact for cheap. Williams could be that guy at 2B once Cronenworth is through his arb cycle (if they choose not to extend him long term). Holistically, Williams makes a lot of sense for San Diego.

The Player:

Hit: 55

Power: 40

Run: 60

Throw: 50

Field: 50

Jett Williams projects to be a contact first bat that could fit at either the top or bottom of a big league lineup. He is relatively broad shouldered, and his lower half is extremely muscular for a player having his 5’8’’ frame. Williams is relatively upright in his stance (downhill type of swing to maximize power output), and stands with a vertical bat to enter the hitting zone earlier. Going into his load, Williams has a slight leg kick, and shifts his glutes forward into his extension (much like pitchers going downhill). This gather to extension results in an overall average length stride – rather than land heavier, Williams has a shorter stride for the downhill extension type in order to keep his hit tool up (downhill swings like Bellinger can result in difficulty with spin). The soft landing to the fantastic block allows for a better margin of error and for maximum power transfer into the baseball. As Williams lands, he enters the hitting zone via his vertical bat, and has outstanding synching with his internal rotation. He remains very stacked as his bat enters the hitting zone, and when coupled with William’s very good path creativity, he is able to put maximum force into the baseball regardless of pitch type and location. The net is a very consistent hit tool with a maxed out power profile for his frame – in an ideal world, Williams is a .285 15 home run type of bat that can steal 20+ bases for a team offensively.

Defensively, Williams is as solid as it gets. He is a very good mover, and with no real defensive holes, he has proven that he can play in three different spots on the infield (and can slot in at left or center if really necessary). The arm probably isn't strong enough to be an every day shortstop or third baseman, but as a utility player, he can definitely play at those spots for short spurts. From an everyday standpoint, Williams projects best defensively at 2B (though he does have the range for short). On the bases, Williams is a serious threat with an outstanding run tool. He could very possibly steal 20+ bases with his speed alone (ignoring reads), and with mastery of reads could be as dangerous as a Jon Berti type on the bases.

All in all, Williams could be what the Padres org has been looking for in players like Kim and Angeles – he could be a high impact utility hitter capable of sticking at 2B. .285 with 15 HR 20 SB and very good defense holds a lot of value, and would be a definite win out of a first round selection filling a real deal potential role for a Major League team.

Eric Brown - SS, Coastal Carolina

Pick Overview:

The Cleveland Guardians will select SS Eric Brown with the sixteenth overall pick in the 2022 draft. Brown might well be the most exciting and high ceiling college bat in the draft this year, and has flown under the radar for a very long time. Brown hits a lot of line drives (34.5%), but above all does a lot of damage when he barrels the baseball (Max ev 113.7). Yes, you read that right, a 5’11’’ 195 lb shortstop has a max exit velo of nearly 115 mph before receiving any pro ball instruction. Brown’s swing is completely optimized to hit the baseball hard – he is extremely vertical, creates a lot of force via a Justin Turner-esque leg kick, has a large stride with a fantastic block, and highly twitchy hips. In other words, he is a club that values data’s dream. Throw in a solid arm and a lot of athleticism, and you get a very projectable player in Brown. For the Guardians, a club that lives and breathes maximization via data analysis and application (and who is doing a great job of developing bats – Noel, Rocchio, Lavastida, Valera, etc), this would be a great and fun pairing to track.

Why Brown at 1.16:

As mentioned above, Brown and the Guardians are a great pairing. Cleveland is an organization that is all in on acquiring talent that does things to the max – they don't care about size, they care about output. I don't think there is a better way to describe Brown. He gives you maximum output. If Hjerpe is available at 16, I could totally see Cleveland pulling the trigger on him, but with him going to Los Angeles at 1.13, Brown is a really great fit. Some may question Cleveland taking another middle infielder with the likes of Arias, Rocchio, Freeman, Jones, Tena, and Martinez all in their ranks, but not all of them will wind up making it to Cleveland, and the raw tools and athleticism of Brown are way too juicy to pass up on. His solid range, plus glove, and plus arm give him the flexibility to play all over the infield, or even in left. Versatility is key in today’s game, and Brown can provide it. For Guardians fans who haven’t thought about it, an infield of Rocchio, Ramirez, Arias, and Brown would be worth tuning in for every single night of the year – trust me on that one.

The Player:

Hit: 55

Power: 55

Run: 55

Throw: 55

Field: 55

Eric Brown is one of the most exciting players in this year’s draft, and Guardians fans will be over the moon to grab him at 1.16. Brown is a player that maximizes everything from his body, and the results speak for themselves. Despite his very vertical stance, unorthodox hand positioning, loud leg kick, and extension, he still manages to get his angles in line and not get too front foot heavy at foot strike into block. The result: a lot of power from the frame and a much higher hit tool than many with similar stride and swing types. In 2022, Brown hit a line drive just over 1 in every 3 balls put in play (34.5%), and barreling the ball at a 24.4% clip. While the barrel rate might be lower than other top prospects in this draft, that is due to the fact that Brown is a steeper swing – with an average launch angle of 16.1 (19.2 vs FB, 21.3 vs CB), he is more about driving the baseball than hitting the ball low and or on the ground (think backspin – doubles and home runs). The most impressive thing about Brown’s pitch by pitch launch angle distribution is the fact that it shows he can be adaptable with his attack angles. He barrels ride and can still get under and barrel depthy spin – many of the best hitters in this draft are flat path and don’t adapt as well as brown. This ability to adapt to pitches is why he walked at a 15.2% clip in 2022. Brown’s approach further bolsters his hit tool as well; with a miniscule 10.8% chase rate (no pitch over 16% chase), Brown sets himself up to attack competitive pitches, and falls behind far less often than other bats. Brown’s bat speed is also outstanding, which is a major reason why he handles velo well, and only featured a 6.5% in zone whiff rate vs fastballs in 2022 (sub 10% overall in zone whiff). That bat speed is also a major reason why Brown hits the ball harder than almost anyone in this year’s draft. While he hasn't consistently hit balls this hard, he has reached a high max exit velos that are frankly elite. His steeper overall path and attack angles are conducive to hitting the ball out of the yard. Despite the lack of 20+ home runs a year on his tally sheet, he definitely produces enough power in his swing to put 20+ out in a 162 game season.

Defensively, Brown utilizes his plus twitch to be able to react to balls at a higher rate than his running speed even suggests. This adaptability along with his plus arm allow him to play virtually anywhere on the infield. He is a shortstop by trade, but will be more than capable of sliding over to either second or third if an org wishes that of him. He is solid with the glove and does a very good job of seeing balls in – the majority of his errors come when charging choppers in and not setting as he throws on the run. He is not very error prone, but if a club can get him to be near perfect throwing on the run, he could even flash plus plus defensive potential.

All in all, Brown is one of my favorite hitting prospects to watch out of college in this year’s draft. He has versatility, which is coveted amongst players today, doesn't punch, walks, hits for average, and has a lot of power in the tank. There really isn't much to dislike with Eric Brown.

Drew Gilbert - OF, Tennessee

Pick Overview:

With the seventeenth overall pick, the Philadelphia Phillies will select Drew Gilbert out of the University of Tennessee. Gilbert and Philly could not be an overall better fit. The hit first left hander features a fantastic overall profile, and might be the most mentally competitive player in this year’s draft. 80 grade competitor aside, Gilbert is an outstanding gap to gap bat (exit averages: 90.3 EV; 12.8 LA; 27.7% LD rate) that flashes plus speed and an overall fantastic defensive profile. Gilbert has shown that he is capable of producing top of the line exit velocities (max ev 111.4; flatter approach results in lower la distribution → more GB/LD than FB profile), and hits high velocity arguably better than anyone else in this draft class. For a Phillies org looking to stock up on the highest impact players available, Gilbert is the natural fit at seventeen.

Why Gilbert at 1.17:

If any player drafted in the last few years screams young Bryce Harper attitude, it's Drew Gilbert. Personality/drive aside, Gilbert is an outstanding fit for the Phillies organization in that the org has shown an affinity for hit first bats with plus overall profiles across the board (Stott, Rojas, O’Hoppe, etc). Gilbert not only fits this profile, but the overall aggressiveness he takes to his game allows for many of his tools to play up beyond their raw scores. Additionally, outside of Rojas, the Philly org doesn't have a ton of high ceiling or impact outfield prospects -- adding Gilbert would help fix this. Holistically, the two simply could not fit more perfectly.

The Player:

Hit: 55

Power: 50

Run: 55

Throw: 60

Field: 60

Gilbert is a player that gets absolutely everything out of his 5’9’’ 185 frame. While he is mostly maxed out physically, what he has/brings to the table is extremely impactful. Gilbert is extremely built in his lower half, which is a major reason why he is capable of hitting the ball as hard as he does. Gilbert has shown that he is an extremely high level contact bat, particularly against the fastball. In 2022, Gilbert whiffed on 15.4% of in zone fastballs, chasing at a 21.9% rate. While this is not anything special on its own (he still walked more than he punched in '22), Gilbert’s numbers against higher level fastballs, specifically velocity, are outstanding. Against fastballs thrown 95 mph or faster, Gilbert only whiffed 6.7% of the time a FB was thrown in zone; with an average exit velocity of 97.6 against high velo (95+), Gilbert not only succeeds against velo, but frankly excels. While is launch angle distribution against ride could raise concerns (the majority of BBOs against velo have been ground balls), I feel it isn't something to bat an eye over – Gilbert features a mostly flat swing (flat bat and attack angles), and in order to try and square ride, he oftentimes overcompensates, taking too flat of an approach. Gilbert is a hitter that at times has gotten HR swing happy, so telling a hitter like him to get steeper against ride would only be something he would want to hear, and should be a quick fix. The only things holding Gilbert’s hit tool back from playing at a role 6 level are that he is hyper aggressive (both a blessing and a curse), and that there is a good amount of whiff on in zone offspeed pitches. While Gilbert didn’t chase at over a 30% rate on any pitch types in 2022 (every pitch under 25% except CB – 28.2%), nearly all pitch types saw a uniform chase rate. Whether this is a result of a lack of high level zone awareness, or straight aggression (probably the latter), a standard level based regression would still see him chasing at a 30% + rate on all MLB level offspeeds. Gilbert definitely has the restraint in him to become more patient with pitches, but this may be a learning curve as his hyper aggression has gotten him where he is today. As mentioned prior, the whiff against offspeed is another area of concern for Gilbert. This whiff mostly comes from his swing being flat – the pitches he struggles with most are curveballs and other depthy offspeeds. While there isn’t as much that can be done in that department (can troubleshoot path creativity), Gilbert still hits line drives nearly ⅓ of the time against all offspeed pitch types – amongst the best of all players in the draft. From a power standpoint, Gilbert is more than capable of producing elite exit velocities even with a toe tap as a load/timing mechanism, and when the swing and approach are locked in there is no reason 20 home runs as a yearly average isn't achievable. An offensive output prediction for Gilbert could be:

.275, 15-25 HR, 25 SB. He might be a 20/20 regular.

Defensively, Gilbert reminds me of a UFC fighter. While this might sound a little out there, Gilbert is a tooled up athlete that will absolutely not give up until the knockout punch has been thrown and connected. In baseball terms, Gilbert will aggressively run after fly balls, even if there is a near zero chance he catches them – he catches quite a few by the way. Throwing near triple digits from the outfield, Gilbert’s arm is plus plus, and could work at all three outfield positions. On the bases, Gilbert flashes plus speed, and is a very good aggressive base stealer (the org that drafts him should let him loose on the bases). When turned completely loose, he definitely has 20 stolen bases in the tank per year in pro ball.

All in all, Gilbert is a player that will play above his tool grades on the offensive side of the ball, and has shown a real affinity for leverage situations. In my ideal world, he plays an elite caliber left field on a big league team (he could be a very good center fielder too), hitting either in the two hole, or towards the back of a lineup. Gilbert is my favorite player in the 2022 class (to watch as a fan) -- theres something to be said about how much he cares and how hard he plays. That aside I feel that if he gets in the right org he could be the same type of player he was at Tennessee (assuming level based regression) for a big league team.

Brandon Barriera - LHP, American Heritage (FL)

Pick Overview:

With the eighteenth pick, the Cincinnati Reds will select Brandon Barriera out of American Heritage HS in Florida. Barriera, a 6’2’’ 180 lb left-hander is one of the few true power sinker arms in this draft class, no less from the left side. Barriera works off of his sinker that runs into to the upper 90s, using his slider as the main out pitch that tunnels off of it. Barriera also has a changeup that can be used with both options (front to back play w SI, tunnel/horizontal separation with SL). The Reds are an organization that have gone all in on pitching and pitcher development over the last few years, so taking a highly talented prep arm would go right in line with that strategy. The club is in the midst of a rebuild, so taking the most talented arm on the board and slow cooking him simply makes sense, making Barriera a great fit at 18.

Why Barriera at 1.18:

The Reds are an organization that takes pride in their ability to develop high level arms -- particularly supinators. As a result, it makes sense for them to go in the direction of a pitcher after taking Matt McClain in the first round last year. Many of the organization’s top prospects are pitchers, but that should not impact how the Reds operate their draft room this year. If an org plays to its strengths, they can trade to fill in the gaps – developing high level arms and trading for bats to fill in where needed makes sense, and there is no such thing as having too much pitching. Barriera would come up/develop alongside many other high level young arms of a similar age (Petty, Williamson, Phillips, etc), further bolstering the next generation of top arms for Cincinnati.

The Player:

Fastball: 60

Curveball: 55

Slider: 55

Control: 55

Brandon Barriera is an extremely high level left handed arm for a player of his age. His hyper mobile 6’1’’ 180 lb frame allows Barriera to access a ridiculous amount of separation and achieve angles of mobility that many others in the class cannot. He likely has some more filling out to do, which makes his velo projection even more appealing than present. Mechanically, Barriera uses his fantastic athleticism and mobility to maximize his velocity profile. He begins his delivery from the left side of the rubber (which further bolsters his wide rel x) and during his average height leg kick slightly counter rotates via a glute point and his posterior knee pushing back. Barriera uses this in order to sink into his glutes during extension, where he rides his back leg into a slightly closed foot strike. This closed foot strike is what forces Barierra to adjust his slot horizontally in order to maximize kinetic output into the pitch. He is an outstanding blocker, and his arm positioning at plant is elite in regards to being able to access further ground force and apply it into the pitch. Barriera stays closed exceptionally well, delaying arm action until absolutely necessary – he also does a very good job with his hip/shoulder alignment offsetting stress from the elbow. His release is a mid ¾, with the angle bolstering slider cut and making for a very uncomfortable angle vs LHH.

Barriera is extremely unique in that his profile could allow him to mix both a four and two seam at a very high level. The combination of his release traits and how his wrist flexes suggests he could do both – his sinker can live in the 10 IVB -14 Hmov range, which tells me he might not be the best pronator of the ball. All this suggests is that if he can be efficient (a big if with his supinator profile/feel for spin), a ride fastball and cutter/sinker combo could both be implemented at a very high level. Berriera throws 95+ already, and will likely throw harder as he ages. Selling different shapes may take more time, but that is what development is all about. Barriera’s fastball still plays above what its data suggests as a result of the angles, and is poised to be a real weapon in pro ball. The likely best course of development would be playing into his supinator profile and teaching a high velo cutter, with a similar vertically oriented sinker being an option to play off of it.

Barriera has an outstanding feel for spin, which is a major asset for his profile going into pro ball. The slider, despite being gyro heavy, has a pretty horizontal shape as a result of his release side. Thrown in the low to mid eighties, the slider is Barriera’s out pitch, and is best utilized when thrown low to the glove side (maximizing perceived sweep). Unsurprisingly, the slider works best against LHH, but Barriera also uses it to try and catch the zone low and away vs RHH. It projects to play plus overall.

Barriera’s curveball is one of the better ones in this year’s prep class. His elite ability to spin the baseball results in a very sharp downhill break – there is a bit of a bump, but this can be addressed once Barriera is with a professional club. Barriera gets a lot of whiff with the CB, as it achieves a massive front to back change from the FB, and has enough separation in movement from the slider to see it play up further (upper 70s velo flirts with 80/low 80s).

Barriera commands the zone pretty well for a prep arm, showing an ability to throw strikes with all three of his pitches at a solid rate. All in all, he is a prep arm with a fantastic foundation that once pitch design tweaks are made has the potential to be a role five to even role six starter in the show.

Jacob Berry - 3B/DH, LSU

Pick Overview:

The Oakland A’s will select Jacob Berry with the nineteenth overall pick in the 2022 draft. Taking Berry is selling out for a bat; thankfully, Berry is a very high quality one with a proven track record in both the PAC 12 and the SEC. A switch hitter, Berry brings value to both sides of the plate (though he is slightly better from the left side). He is a contact first bat that rarely punches, and has flashed some serious power as well hitting 15 home runs with a max exit velo nearing 110 mph. He is without a doubt the best hitter on the board at this point, and the Athletics would be thrilled to have him available at 19th overall.

Why Berry at 1.19:

To make a long story short, Jacob Berry is without a question a top 5-10 bat in this draft. That being said, that is all he is – a bat. Berry is not mobile enough to stick in the outfield and his arm is too much of a liability to play third. His glove? Subpar at best. Essentially, drafting Berry means likely drafting a DH (Ivan Melendez wya). That being said, Berry projects to be a damn good DH, and with a lot of effort, there is still an outside chance he could be coached up into sticking at third. Regardless, Oakland would love having Berry fall to them at 19. He is absolutely an impact bat, and with his lack of whiff, he is a player that can be worked with immediately in the power maximization department. He’s an easy sell here at 19 with a very projectable future.

The Player:

Hit: 60

Power: 50

Run: 40

Throw: 45

Field: 40

Jacob Berry has proven that he has elite projectability from the offensive side of the game. Berry’s status as one of the best hitters in the draft is rooted in his hit tool – the switch hitter had an absolutely fantastic in zone contact rate in 2022 (84.9% as a lefty, 81.9% as a righty), and also hit line drives on about 1 of every 3 batted balls. Berry has a very simple approach in regards to his swing – there is very little movement, and his direct stride and immediate movement of his hands to the ball (no vertical bat/early angle set) means he is very hard to beat across the board (highest in zone whiff rate vs any pitch type was 25.8%, avg 16.1%). Berry’s flatter overall approach makes him a menace against fastballs, and much like Gavin Cross, he is an outstanding ride counter. To add on further, Berry whiffed on less than 10% of in zone fastballs thrown 95+, one of the best rates of any bat we have that data on in the class (average ev over 100mph vs 95+ as well). The flatter overall path does see Berry whiff more often on curve balls, but when he connects he still manages to do damage; the slider is the pitch he struggles to drive more than any other, particularly when hitting from the right side. Berry’s power profile is extremely difficult to project, as he has plus power in the frame, but his swing traits do not promote the optimization and usage of said power. Berry’s overall flatter profile sees him hit balls at lower launch angle distributions than ideal for a hitter chasing a power profile, and his overall exit data shows that he does not generate flush contact very often (19% barrel rate but only 12% vs spin, 5.9% vs SL). While he still hit 32 home runs over two college seasons, I don’t feel it's fair to expect more than 25 home runs year in year out at a higher level. His max exit velos are still very strong from the left side, but do not suggest anything more than a role 5 power profile from the right. Its not worth a club changing his swing and sacrificing his hit tool to get more power, accessing that force will be more in the margins.

As mentioned in his overview, Berry is a bit of a liability in the field – he is likely a DH at the highest level. A club could try and improve his fielding at a position like 3B, but even if they were to get that to an average level he would need to improve the subpar arm as well (plyo program, shoulder mobility work, etc). While I would absolutely try this, it would be expected that whatever team does draft him will focus more on the offensive side of the game to maximize Berry’s potential. He is an overall subpar runner, and will not be much of a threat on the bases.

All in all, Berry is a very good bat that could project as a top or middle of the lineup type of DH for a big league club (think 2, 5, 6 holes). He is hands down the best available bat at 19, and would be a great addition for the Oakland A’s.

Chase DeLauter - OF, James Madison

Pick Overview:

With the twentieth overall pick, the Atlanta Braves will select Chase DeLauter from James Madison University. The Braves will be licking their chops to pull the trigger on DeLauter at 20, who frankly could find his way sneaking into the top ten this year. DeLauter is the definition of a big and powerful outfielder that can move at a very high level – his approach is fantastic (13.2% chase rate, 19.1% BB%, 15.2% K%), and beyond his strong zone awareness, he is capable of producing elite power, and has a plus overall hit tool. A good player comp for DeLauter could be a slightly slower James Outman type with a little less swing and miss vs spin. This hyper athletic build with a solid offensive foundation is exactly what an organization like Atlanta (who excels in developing bats) would love to get their hands on. The fit is natural between player and club, which is why ATL pulls the trigger on DeLauter here at 20.

Why DeLauter at 1.20:

While the Braves do have outfielders littered across the top of their farm system, they are lacking anyone with the projectability of DeLauter. The organization can go in many directions here at 20 (with prep arms such as Brock Porter, Noah Schultz, etc still on the board), but I feel the club plays to one of its strengths where they have a regular PD track record (they’re very good with arms too). The club’s last four first rounders have been college players, and based on their recent draft trends, they tend to take the player they feel is the best available on the board. In the case of DeLauter, his ceiling makes him without question amongst those in that discussion, and the most likely choice for the Braves.

The Player:

Hit: 55

Power: 55

Run: 55

Throw: 45

Field: 50

DeLauter’s plus hit tool (he hit .437 in 2022) is rooted in his aforementioned elite plate approach and zone awareness. In 2022, DeLauter walked more than he struck out, and in chasing at only a 13.2% rate (in all data collected games –46 total; highest chase was 21% vs CB amidst a limited sample – 77 pitches), DeLauter is amongst the best in the class at ensuring he only swings at pitches in and around the zone. Mechanically, DeLauter’s swing is simple, using his elite twitch and athleticism to see his power play up. He has a neutral stance with a slight knee bend from the left side; going into his load, DeLauter sets his angle early, creating as much hip/shoulder separation as possible. His leg lift is relatively small, and he has a very soft landing at foot strike. DeLauter utilizes his top of the line athleticism in how fast he is able to internally rotate, and his outstanding block leaves many evaluators optimistic over his ability to hit for power once he learns to steepen his path further. While his .437 batting average this year may lead some to mark him as a role 6 type of contact hitter, his in zone whiff rates and struggles to slightly steepen his path vs CH and SL in particular leave me hesitant to put such a grade on DeLauter at present. DeLauter hasn’t shown his home run pop during his college career (8 HR in ‘22, 15 in 3 years at JMU), but the power in the frame is unquestionable, and many evaluators believe the game power will eventually show at a plus level. A fair power projection for DeLauter based on the twitch and frame could easily be 25 home runs a year. For a left fielder hitting at a plus level, this is significant in terms of value to a club.

Defensively, DeLauter brings a relatively average profile to the table in left field. An overall plus runner, he is able to track down balls that subpar or even average outfielders won’t be able to get to. However, his angles can be inconsistent, which sees his field grade take a knock down from plus to about average. DeLauter’s arm is relatively average from the outfield, meaning it is his legs that will provide the majority of his overall defensive value. On the bases, DeLauter is an average overall base stealer, though his plus run tool could see him snag a solid number of bags if he has enough attempts (10/11 in 2022).

Overall, DeLauter is an upside play – he brings an overall above average offensive package that could play up even further with his swing more optimized for power output, and his defensive value will play average at worst. For the Braves at 20th overall, he is a fantastic option with a very easy plan of attack to reach his ceiling from a PD perspective.

Cade Horton - RHP, Oklahoma

Pick Overview:

With the twenty-first pick in the 2022 draft, the Seattle Mariners will select RHP Cade Horton out of the University of Oklahoma. Horton is a high level arm that has been a late riser on many draft boards – with three plus pitches lead by his mid to upper 90s FB and his wipeout turbo sweeper, Horton has an outstanding foundation heading into pro ball. Horton’s elite feel for spin also sees him flash a plus curveball, and with ample time to change up (no pun intended) the cambio, Horton figures to be an arm with the potential of having four plus pitches at the big league level. The Mariners are an organization that has taken a college player in five of their last six first round slots. Having successfully developed top of the line talent across the board, they will probably take the highest impact player that can fit into their quickly approaching window – Horton fits that billing.

Why Horton at 1.21:

Horton feels like the right pickup for the Mariners here for a multitude of reasons. First, their draft history in the DiPotto era suggests they have preferred taking college players early. In a draft that will be very college heavy in the late first, it would be very unsurprising for them to go in that direction. Horton is also a natural fit for the Mariners org in that he fits their MO (high octane fastballs with a feel for spin), and from a PD perspective, he is right up their alley. The Mariners have been able to teach very high level cutters/verty velo sliders (Logan Gilbert exhibit A), so if they couldn't improve Horton’s CH (reasons could include: can't pronate, finger pressure issues, etc), I would not be surprised at all to see a high velo cutter added as a middle ground between the FB and SL – and to see that cutter play at a high level. Horton provides the blueprint Seattle likes and knows how to get to the max, he feels like the right choice here at 21.

The Player:

Fastball: 60

Slider: 65

Curveball: 55

Changeup: 50

Control: 50

Despite being unpolished, Cade Horton already brings a ton to the table for the team that decides to draft him this July. The 6’2’’ 190 pounder was a two way player at Oklahoma, flashing solid horizontal explosivity and rotational acceleration at third base (he was set to play football for OU under Lincoln Riley before tearing his UCL freshman year as well). Horton has an extremely built lower half with relatively broad and defined shoulders. He is slightly quad dominant, but his elite glute strength helps make up for the hamstring imbalance. Horton’s windup is relatively quick, and he features an average height leg lift, which is followed by an immediate sink into his back leg, where he quickly rides the mound downhill until foot strike. Upon planting, Horton internally rotates with his scaps hitting their peak retraction point. The fact that his arm isn't quite up yet tells me that its a little behind, and that he could still get further velo (even though he’s already up to INSERT already) via better timing and the resulting effect it will have on ground force access. He showcases solid trunk mobility via his thoracic extension, and comes off of his back foot very noticeably, shifting all of his momentum front side as he goes into his throw. He is already throwing at a high level, but the timing tweaks and other changes can be made to offload stress on the elbow (which takes on quite a bit in his motion) could further help him from a performance standpoint as well.

Horton’s fastball is his bread and butter pitch, and can play nearly anywhere in the zone. Averaging at 94.6 and topping at 98, the pitch has enough juice to be blown by opposing bats. Additionally, his solid overall fastball shape allows for it to play nearly anywhere in the zone given his release traits. His fastball shape is very vertically oriented with little run, which will only play up further as he gains the velo he has yet to access. The arm action being very late suggests that Horton has triple digits in the tank, which with its already plus shape would see the offering play at a role 6 level without a question.

Horton’s slider could already play at a role six level in the show today. Sitting in the mid eighties (avg 84.6 mph), the pitch would be very good alone if it were a gyro type of slider – the fact that it is a turbo sweeper makes it elite elite. Horton’s slider, despite still being a zero vert pitch also cuts a massive eleven inches. At what will likely end up around an average of 85-87 (assuming mechanical changes), this could well become one of the best sliders amongst starting pitchers in the game today. This year, college bats whiffed on 49.6% of all sliders thrown, while also chasing 39.6% of the time. The pitch needs literally no altering – its elite.

Horton’s curveball is plus but sits in a very interesting spot in relation to the rest of his arsenal. Despite flashing plus velo on the pitch (avg velo 80.9, max 84), the shape and usage does not result in a ton of whiff or chase. Due to his feel for supination, the curveball takes on a more horizontal axis and resulting ball flight – more importantly though it features a bump. The best way this pitch could play is off of front to back with the slider – using it as a depthier breaker with enough movement and separation to garner mishit or whiffs. The fix in order to make this play at its best would be to bump his VRA down to about a neutral zero (slider is just under so its all about creating a 1st 20 tunnel). This pitch will play plus, but with proper use could play up further.

Horton’s Changeup is his worst offspeed pitch, and can really only play off of the FB. He has a very supinator heavy profile, making it difficult for Horton to switch up his wrist flexion on the changeup – the result is a pretty average overall shape. While he threw the pitch at an elite rate in school (highest whiff and chase amongst all pitches), the overall tunnel may not translate to the highest level. It’s not worth switching up yet, but if it doesn’t stick a split finger substitute could be worth a shot.

Overall, Horton does a decent job of sticking around the zone, but will need to hit it more often in pro ball. His fastball was the only pitch he located at what would be considered an acceptable professional rate, and without elite chase rates across the board, being closer to the zone with his slider and change (which get a ton of whiffs) would only make him more effective.

Horton might have the best shot of any college arm in this class of being an ace. He will be a bit of a project (and will need to be monitored having had TJ already), but if a team is patient they could really reap the rewards with Horton.

Blade Tidwell - RHP, Tennessee

Pick Overview:

With the twenty-second overall pick, the St. Louis Cardinals will select Blade Tidwell, a right handed starting pitcher out of Tennessee. Tidwell is a fastball dominant arm with the pitch running into the upper 90s, and has a solid mix of offspeed pitches with plus overall potential. Some tweaks will have to be made in pitch design with his offspeeds (particularly surrounding adding SL velo and altering CH shape), but overall the profile is already solid. Tidwell is an arm with plenty of leverage experience with Tennessee, and for a team like the Cardinals that would love to see their arms pitching in big games within the next few years (Wainwright is 40, Flaherty and Mikolas FA in ‘24) he is a natural fit to be a part of the next gen of Cardinals arms.

Why Tidwell at 1.22:

Tidwell is a fantastic fit for the Cardinals at 22 in that the org is lacking for starters with top of the line fastballs. In fact, Tidwell would likely become the highest rated pitching prospect in the org after this selection – his overall stuff is better than Liberatore, and Tink Hence is too early on in his development to be able to rate that highly. The Cardinals have drafted a mix of high school and college talent over the last few years, but going off of last year’s selection and their current roster state, it would make sense for them to take the best college arm available with their top three starters all being question marks in their rotation from 2024 on (Wainwright age 40, Flaherty and Mikolas UFA in ‘24). Being able to load up on top end arms would be a logical priority – Tidwell seems to fit the billing perfectly.

The Player:

Fastball: 60

Slider: 55

Curveball: 50

Changeup: 50

Control: 45

Blade Tidwell is one of the most attractive pitchers in the 2022 draft class, in that the right hander has nearly every trait coveted amongst arms both physically, and in how he manipulates the baseball. Tidwell produces massive velo via his elite hip and shoulder mobility, which is clearly on display via his separation, and top of the line shoulder external rotational mobility during his arm action. Tidwell’s 6’4’’ 207 frame is mostly filled out, as he is built relatively wiry – something his mobility further emphasizes. He is a plus overall athlete, and has outstanding stability in his lower half (specifically ankle), which allows him to stay back into internal rotation for much longer than many other arms. Working from the left side of the mound, Tidwell has a very quick windup going into his leg lift, where he features a reasonably considerable upper body counter rotation seeing his front glute pointing towards the plate. Before drifting downhill, Tidwell slightly hikes his hip, subsequently sinking deep into his rear glute as he extends. Tidwell is a very good blocker, and his positioning at foot strike is plus in for ground force application. He does an outstanding job of holding his upper body counter rotation until its time for his arm to come forward, keeping his velo profile maximized before he releases from a high ¾ slot.

Tidwell’s fastball is a highly dominant pitch as a result of its plus plus velo, and overall very good shape. Averaging 96 and topping at 99, Tidwell’s four seamer is as high octane as nearly anyone else’s in the draft class. Its solid vert results in a good amount of swing and miss, though his relatively generic release height means at the highest level the pitch will likely be more effective down than up (though ambush will work with his velocity). The pitch needs very little tweaking unless there is further vert to access, though without that data it appears his efficiency profile is mostly maxed out.

Tidwell’s slider is his next best pitch, and functions as a bit of a middle ground between a true slider and cutter in regards to shape. The pitch sits in the mid eighties (avg 83.7), topping at as high as 87. With the shape being vertier and the pitch not being a crazy gloveside mover, it may be a better call to sell out for velo on the pitch so long as the glove side can be maintained. It's a solid offering, but whatever team acquires him will have a choice to make: go gyro heavy with the risk of losing velo, or go velo heavy in exchange for some added vert – given how his changeup works, I would go with the latter.

Tidwell’s curveball is a bit of a question mark despite playing up. It creates a good amount of front to back and vertical separation from the slider, but profiles more like a slurve with not a ton of glove side than a true curveball. Tidwell has a decent feel for spin (though not outstanding), so while other grips could be experimented with, he should probably focus on maintaining shape while being able to throttle it further – this would improve its play off of the slider, hopefully leading to more swing and miss.

The changeup is the most interesting pitch to follow in Tidwell’s arsenal in that he has seen a ton of success with it, but its traits may not play up at the highest level/ With Tidwell not being an elite pronator of the baseball, the shape is rather generic – despite that, with the cambio sharing a relatively similar velocity profile to the slider, there is some solid east/west play. The further evolution of the slider will dictate how the changeup plays in the future… the better the tunnel, the more the CH will play up.

From a command standpoint, Tidwell does a good job of staying in and around the zone with his two main offerings -- that being said, his CB and CH in zone rates were beyond subpar in 2022. He will need to find the zone far more often with them in order to have the entire arsenal at where it needs to be in pro ball.

All in all, Tidwell brings an overall fantastic velo profile to the table. His offspeed pairing will be the separator between whether he becomes an upper rotation arm, or if he is relegated to the bottom half of a rotation or the bullpen.

Dylan Beavers - OF, California

Pick Overview:

With the twenty-third overall pick, the Toronto Blue Jays will select Dylan Beavers out of the University of California, Berkeley. Beavers is an extremely interesting case in that if his one offensive deficiency is addressed, he could well become one of the top players to come out of this draft as a whole. He brings a highly twitchy profile to his 6’4’’ 206 frame, as seen by his top of the line bat speed, explosivity tracking down balls in the field, and in how quickly he gets going both in the field and when running on the bases. With one of the best overall average exit velos in the class (94.9 mph), Beavers regularly is in a position to deal serious damage to the opposition. Additionally, his elite bat path sees him square the baseball regularly, with over 55% of all of his batted balls in 2022 coming at over 95 mph off the bat. For a Blue Jays organization that has shown an exceptional ability to develop bats, taking a player with Beavers’ athleticism and upside would make very good sense.

Why Beavers at 1.23:

It doesn't take much of a deep dive of the Blue Jays’ farm system to see that the one area in which they are lacking a ton of top level depth is in the outfield department. In fact, if you take Otto Lopez out of the question, only one other outfielder (Samad Taylor) can sit firmly in the organization's top 20 prospects. As a result, taking the best outfielder on the board simply makes sense for Toronto. Beavers has the potential to be a plus every day player – with his overall plus hit tool (spin recognition aside), solid power, and plus defensive profile, he represents something not present in their minor league ranks: a potential high impact outfielder. The club is outstanding at bolstering players’ offensive profiles – for a guy like Beavers who needs one tweak in pitch recognition, they may be the best fit in the entire league to accomplish this. The pairing just makes sense.

The Player:

Hit: 40

Power: 55

Run: 55

Throw: 55

Field: 50

Beavers is a player who’s hit tool will define whether or not he is a plus big leaguer, an every day big leaguer, or if he ever reaches the show at all. An overall plus athlete, Beavers brings a lot to the table: he can hit most pitch types at a high level, provide power for a lineup via the combination of his twitch and steep path, and can utilize his plus speed to track balls down in the field. Beavers’ approach is overall plus, which helps bolster his ability to barrel up most pitch types at a high rate. As mentioned prior, his average exit velocity of 94.9 miles per hour is outstanding, and with overall low in zone whiff and chase rates (15% chase is amongst the best in the class), Beavers sets himself up to be a very consistent and productive hitter. Whats most impressive about Beavers is he is a rare case where there is very little dropoff between his overall line drive rate and his barrel rate. In 2022, Beavers hit a line drive at an astounding 40.7% clip, with one out of every three batted balls being a barrel. This difference of only 7.4% is extremely difficult to find and is a major green flag in wanting to draft and develop him. That being said, Beavers has two major offensive holes to his game that could become extremely problematic as he climbs the ladder: his steep swing with little path creativity leads to a ton of whiff vs ride fastballs, and he frankly cannot see spin, particularly sliders out of hand. These are two massive red flags for Beavers’ game, though an earlier entry into the hitting zone post vertical bat could help address the first. Pitch recognition is oftentimes very hard to teach, especially with sliders/velo heavy spin (he missed on 40.5% of sliders thrown in the strike zone in 2022). That being said, pro ball is the best place to find staff who can accomplish this. Beavers’ power profile is plus thanks in part to his twitchy and strong frame along with his swing generating a decent amount of power. Beavers hits peak separation just as he gets to his plant – this optimizes power translation despite the late upper body movement meaning late entry into the hitting zone (a major reason why he struggles with elevated fastballs). He hit 17 home runs in 2022, and with a good not great max exit velocity compared to his average, he should be able to hit 25 home runs a year when fully optimized over 162.

Defensively, Beavers is extremely consistent. He makes nearly no errors, and with his plus speed is capable of sticking at any of the three outfield positions. He needs to work a bit on his angles and route running, but the plus overall speed and arm leave me optimistic about Beavers’ overall defensive projection. On the bases, Beavers flashes plus speed, and should be able to steal about 15 bases a season at the highest level.

All in all, Beavers’ career will be defined by his ability to improve the hit tool – the two holes are glaring, though the overall potential in his profile leaves him as an outstanding ceiling play for the mid to late first round.

Gabriel Hughes - RHP, Gonzaga

Why Hughes at 1.24:

As mentioned above, the Red Sox have yet to take a college player in the first round under Chaim Blume. While there are plenty of top of the line HS talents still available (Schultz, Porter, Ford, etc), I feel the club will go with Hughes due to the fact that a quick grip change could see his already effective fastball shoot up in terms of shape and expected run value. The Red Sox have done an outstanding job over the last few years of optimizing arms for their individual profiles (look at their minor league system, it tells the story) – they will be more than capable of doing the same with Hughes.

The Player:

Fastball: 55

Slider: 55

Changeup: 55

Control: 55

Gabriel Hughes is an extremely physical 6’4’’ 220, with broad shoulders and chest, and a sturdy overall lower body. He is also hyper mobile, which can be seen during his very high leg lift and subsequent rapid acceleration downhill. The net of this is a very high center of mass velocity working with a good amount of mass moving downhill – in other words, his body/physicality screams velocity. Mechanically, Hughes works off of the left side of the mound, and works very quickly into his leg lift. The leg kick showcases Hughes’ elite hamstring mobility and core strength, as the right hander’s knee comes about even with his shoulders when standing tall. He has some upper body counter rotation during his leg lift as well, but opens back up going into the throwing motion. As he extends, Hughes shoots both his lead leg and his arms out in a slightly jerky way, and opens up the upper body to a neutral position as he lands and gets into his internal rotation. His arm is slightly late at times going into uplift at footstrike, meaning there might be another tick or two in velo that he could access. Hughes’ lower half timing is solid, and his solid shoulder mobility allows him to consistently hit the mid nineties with his fastball.

Hughes’ fastball is extremely interesting in that it played at an elite level in 2022, but has a ton of room to still grow. The pitch has a very vertical profile thanks in part to how Hughes releases the ball, showcasing very little run with a good amount of vert. While it did produce outstanding whiff numbers in 2022 (35.6%), the fact that he grips the pitch similar to a split finger tells me that there is even further vertical shape to access. Moving his fingers together further in conjunction to his arm synching could see Hughes average 94-96 rather than the current 93-95, with the shape getting up to what could be 18 inches of vert (sits around 15 now with very little magnus/finger pressure in the middle of the ball help). It figures to play plus at the big league level once all developmental changes are made.

Hughes’ slider was an extremely effective pitch in 2022, and figures to be a major player for him going into pro ball. While it only sits in the low eighties, it has a very interesting shape – it takes on the vertical profile of a gyro slider while still achieving a significant amount of glove side movement. It doesn't produce much of a tunnel with the changeup (though the velo is nearly identical so there can be east west play), but its play off of the fastball is outstanding. It shines most low to the glove side against RHH, but can be used against both sided hitters. The net result of its velo and shape is a pitch where bats struggle to calibrate their horizontal bat angles, with Hughes getting a ton of swing and miss (44.5% whiff rate on SL in 2022). It is an overall plus pitch that should translate to the next level.

Hughes’ changeup was his best swing and miss pitch in college (47.4%). In addition to his plus feel on the offering, the overall velo separation from the FB, and his outstanding feel for pronation results in a shape that kills lift, while still running a very good amount. The best part of his CH shape is that the majority of its drop is early – per its velocity vectors, the vertical drop rate as the pitch crosses the plate nearly mimics the fastball. The result of this is a bat anticipating the pitch to drop further (since it kills vert so well), with it staying up a little more and running – its a tough shape and ball flight to calibrate a bat angle against. Hughes’ changeup is the offspeed most primed to play up at a high level in pro ball as is.

Hughes has very good command when compared to many other college arms in the class. He gets a lot of whiff on all three offerings with very little chase, so the fact that he is in and around a 50% strike rate with all three offerings is a very good building block with which to start. His ability to continue to stay around the strike zone will be critical, as he is a swing and miss type of pitcher via fooling bats with his offspeed shape, and then being able to beat them with fastballs.

All in all, Hughes likely projects as a mid rotation piece if all goes right. His fastball will be the key – if he can improve/master the shape, everything else will continue to play up.

Noah Schultz - LHP, Oswego East (IL)

Pick Overview:

With the twenty-fifth overall pick, the New York Yankees will select Noah Schultz out of Oswego East in Illinois. Schultz is one of the most interesting prospects in the entire class in that he is a massive ceiling play, and that he may require an heavy over slot signing bonus to pry away from Vanderbilt (his sister plays/ed softball at Stanford – the combination of his Boras representation and valuing a top of the line degree might require a hefty bonus). Despite this over slot need, Schultz has special potential. His lanky 6’9’’ 220 frame is amongst the most projectable in the class, with a lot of room to further fill out. Schultz is very athletic for a player of his size and with the FB running up into the mid 90s, the velocity is already starting to come through. He rounds out his arsenal with a low to mid eighties slider that features solid late bite (very good feel for spin), and a changeup that is starting to show signs of very good front to back play with his fastball. The Yankees organization is in a unique spot in that they both have no need for short term impact out of a 1st rounder, and that they do an outstanding job of developing and nurturing young arms. While they might have to pay a hefty over slot number, taking the chance on what Schultz could become seems like something very tough to pass up on.

Why Schultz at 1.25:

Taking Schultz is relatively straightforward for the Yankees at 1.25: The club is a World Series contender (no immediate need for young talent influx), is one of the best in the league at identifying talent (rehab projects, areas to exploit/improve players that haven't been maxed), and has shows a really strong ability to develop and maximize arms. While Schultz may ask for a heavy over slot value (Boras representation, high value on education), the Yankees could come up with some very strong selling points for the left-hander: They can guarantee better development and progression, and with Vanderbilt starters constantly throwing upwards of 120-130 pitches in starts, the pro org would manage his arm health/care much more closely. For the Yankees, a 6’9’’ left hander flirting with triple digits that also features very good offspeeds would be very tough to pass on as a long play. If he were to go to school and progress as expected, he may not be around where the Yankees will want to be drafting from in 2025.

The Player:

Fastball: 60

Slider: 60

Changeup: 50

Control: 50

Noah Schultz is a particularly interesting prospect in that his evaluation might be seen as more forward looking than almost any other prospect in the draft. Despite being eighty-one inches tall, Schultz has a surprising amount of coordination and body control for a kid his size and age. The highly mobile lefty has a lot of weight to still put on despite him likely ending up very lean when all is said and done. As a result, evaluating his arsenal is more of a look into the future – what is he doing now, and what will it look like once he has filled out more. Mechanically, Schultz is very advanced for a kid his size and age. Working off the right side of the mound (switch to the left may happen in pro ball to bolster his rel side and perceived SL movement), Schultz features a relatively high leg kick, hiking his hip to access further velo from his backside. Going into extension, he does a very good job of sinking into his rear glute, allowing him to extend his long levers as far as possible prior to foot strike. Upon his plant, Schultz’s arm is still in horizontal abduction, only starting to enter a full uplift. This means that he could access further velo via ground force usage as is (no further body maturation necessary). His hip internal rotation is relatively on time, and Schultz does an outstanding job of blocking as his arm action begins. Schultz’s strong feel for body control is on full display as he finishes his internal rotation and brings his arm forward via his trunk stability, plus thoracic extension, and his hip and shoulder angles putting him in a very protective position for his elbow. Schultz finishes his motion with a release from a very wide ¾ slot (further emphasizing the effectiveness of a future move to the left side of the mound).

Schultz’s fastball has constantly evolved over the course of the last year, and will continue to over the course of his development. Schultz’s heater sits in the low 90s (91-94 range), topping out at 96. The shape has a solid horizontal profile as a result of his wrist flexion triggering pronation at release. Despite that, Schultz still achieves what appears to be solid vert – with his physical height playing a massive factor on potential release height and approach angles, he could become a candidate to flash both a four seam and sinker in pro ball. Looking forward, it is not outlandish to project Schultz sitting in the mid to upper nineties, making this pitch a potential role six option upon his reaching full physical maturity.

Schultz’s slider has serious potential in that he can throttle it, and has an outstanding feel for spin. The pitch sits in the low eighties, topping out at around 85. Its shape is relatively gyro heavy, though it does see some bite late on in ball flight. Long term, I would expect Schultz to further tap into the pitch’s horizontal profile with his ability to supinate and horizontal release profile being so significant. The pitch figures to project at a role six level – it could well sit around 85 with significant perceived or actual sweep in a couple of years.

The changeup is Schultz’s least advanced pitch – despite him being a supinator, the pitch still has real potential as a result of his release. Currently, the changeup sits around 85, a decent not massive front to back separation from the fastball. Its shape is relatively average, with it killing some vert and running a fair amount. The long term goal for the pitch will likely be to kill vert a little better via a heavier pronation, and to widen the velo separation from the fastball as it increases in velocity itself. The pitch will likely play average to plus at the highest level, though it is too early on to be able to make a call on it.

Schultz does a pretty good job of staying in and around the zone for a prep arm, though it is too early in his development process to get an outstanding feel of where it will be long term. He can miss to the arm side on the CH, and on occasion will yank the SL – unsurprisingly, the FB is the pitch he does the best job of locating at present.

All in all, Schultz may be a tough signing given his agent and academic emphasis, though he is a ceiling play that with patience could very well make him worth the price tag. If he is to sign out of high school, I would expect a longer stint through affiliate ball to get his body closer to maxed before seeing him make the jump – even if the shape and velo starts to show up more.

Kumar Rocker - RHP, Tri City (Frontier League)

Pick Overview:

With the twenty-sixth pick in the 2022 draft, the Chicago White Sox will select Kumar Rocker out of the Frontier League. Rocker has without a question had the most unique journey to this year’s draft as a result of his 2021 draft and non-sign with the New York Mets. After being taken at 1.10. last year, the Mets elected to not offer Rocker a contract subsequent to his medicals with the team. The result: Rocker is playing in the Frontier League this year, with the goal of his mid 90s fastball and top of the line breaking ball pairing seeing him go in the first round once again. I feel that this will in fact happen, and that the White Sox are a perfect match for the right hander. The Sox have trended towards taking college players with very little development necessary prior to them getting the call. Rocker fits the billing here, and could well find himself in the majors by the time September rolls around. I really can’t think of a better match to fit either party’s goals – the shoe fits perfectly.

Why Rocker at 1.26:

Four of the White Sox’s last five first round picks have been college players that debuted on the Major League roster within two years of being drafted. Crochet, their 2020 selection in particular, debuted in the show the same year in which he was drafted. Rocker is a player that doesn’t really need much time in the minors – he is physically maxed out, and his stuff is fringe ready enough to play at the big league level now. Chicago is a team nearly at the bottom of the American League in runs allowed, and has seen real struggles from its starting pitchers this year. Rocker would represent a player that could be inserted nearly immediately that could help the White Sox make a push to turn their season around and clinch a spot in the postseason. While there are clear injury concerns (the extent of which we do not know), he has been exceptional in the Frontier League this year, and is simply too talented to pass up on at 1.26. given the Sox’s draft philosophy and pitching situation. It's a slam dunk fit.

The Player:

Fastball: 60

Slider: 60

Curveball: 55

Changeup: 50

Control: 50

Kumar Rocker is the most big league ready player in this draft class by a landslide. While there are extreme injury concerns, the right hander’s stuff is extremely loud, and his physical maturity level is as complete as it gets. Rocker’s aforementioned 6’5’’ 245 frame is extremely imposing. Rocker has broad shoulders and a full chest, and with highly built up quads and glutes, Rocker is capable of creating immense force out of his frame. Rocker works off of the left side of the mound, featuring a swinging leg kick with a slight hip hike and both upper and lower body counter rotation. Going into his extension, Rocker immediately sinks into his rear glutes, reaching out with his front leg while keeping both his torso and all energy on his back leg. Rocker is a decent horizontal abductor, but has a relatively slow uplift. The result of this is a late arm upon foot strike, which leads to further stress on the elbow during arm action. Rocker’s internal rotation is extremely explosive, and his trunk stacking going into IR is exceptional. Rocker does a very good job of maintaining trunk counter rotation going into IR and arm action, though the late arm again emphasizes potential stress on the shoulder and elbow. Rocker gets pretty good shoulder external rotation into the throwing motion, and his exceptional blocking allows him to maximize force allocation into the baseball to produce high velocity. At current state, much of Rocker’s velocity could be considered physical – with proper synching, he could potentially access a small amount further (maybe 1-2 ticks on avg), while more importantly protecting himself as best as possible from injury.

Rocker’s fastball is a role-six pitch. Topping at as high as 99 and flashing near twenty inches of vert, the pitch can play anywhere in the zone at a high level. His high ¾ slot is conducive to a more vertically oriented profile, and that is exactly what Rocker brings to the table. There really isn’t much to say for the pitch, as it is extremely advanced; it is big league ready now.

Rocker’s slider is arguably his most dominant offspeed pitch. The gyro slider features a slightly vertier shape than ideal, but its mid to upper eighties velocity more than makes up for the slight uptick in vert. The pitch creates an outstanding tunnel with the curveball, and is particularly effective low to the glove side. Rocker sits in zone with the slider at about a 50% rate, and with a sky high chase rate, the pitch has the potential to play at a fringe elite level in the show.

Rocker’s curveball is an outstanding foil to his slider. With enough front to back play (avg 6 mph difference) and an extremely similar vertical release angle profile, Rocker gets a ton of whiffs playing off of the slider, or in slider heavy counts. Rocker’s curveball has a negative vertical release angle, meaning there is no bump to help hitters recognize what is coming. The pitch doesn’t have much cut, but the entire notion of what makes it effective is how it plays off of the SL, surprising hitters via the excess depth and slower velo. In his final year at Vanderbilt, Rocker got misses on 57.7% of his curveballs, with a 34.5% chase rate as well. He only threw the CB in the zone 39% of the time, so being able to locate his most effective swing and miss pitch will be a key at the next level.

Despite being more of a pronation first wrist flexion profile, Rocker does not get a crazy amount of movement out of his changeup. The pitch’s shape is relatively generic, with it playing best off of the fastball. While it does get some whiffs, the best outcome for it is to get soft contact off of front to back play along with the change in movement vertical profile from the FB. He has the lowest chase and whiff rates of all three offspeeds on the CH, so its usage is more situational than it is as a regular out pitch. It's a pretty average big league offering.

From a control standpoint, Rocker is relatively average. He does a good job of throwing strikes with the fastball, but needs to bump up his in zone rates with all of his offspeeds, particularly the curveball.

All in all, Rocker could well find himself in the show this year. He doesn't need much more development – its really about whether or not he can find the zone more often with his offspeeds, and if he can stay healthy. The talent is unquestionable with Rocker, though his career trajectory will be defined by his health.

Spencer Jones - OF, Vanderbilt

Pick Overview:

With the twenty-seventh pick, the Milwaukee Brewers will select Spencer Jones out of Vanderbilt. Jones, a hyper-athletic right fielder is the definition of a ceiling play. After having Tommy John surgery during the pandemic year (also limiting his 2021 playing time), he is a low sample size, big upside pick. Jones is extremely twitchy, and produces a ton of power for a swing catered towards hitting for contact (flat approach). Jones does have a good amount of swing and miss against offspeeds (35.6% in zone whiff vs offspeed), though the limited game time against higher end pitching could be a major factor playing into this. The pick makes sense for Milwaukee, who have shown a tendency to favor high upside, athletic outfielders (Joey Wiemer, Joe Gray Jr., Sal Frelick, etc) over the last few years. For an org that does a great job of taking a data driven approach to pinpoint areas of maximization, drafting a high upside athlete (what cannot be taught) makes solid sense.

Why Jones at 1.27:

While the Brewers could attack this pick in multiple ways (namely pitchers), they have done an outstanding job of developing outfielders over the last few years. It's a riskier play, but I am a firm believer in emphasizing/doubling down on organizational strengths to further bolster them. Even if the top four prospects in the organization are outfielders, one of them, or even Jones, would hold a lot of trade value if fully maximized (and there is a log jam at the top). The club could still go in the direction of an arm here (Brock Porter and Thomas Harrington come first to mind), but with fewer ceiling plays left to take, I still feel they will pull the trigger on Jones. The Brewers are an organization that is good at development across the board, but taking a player in the spot they have been best at developing over the last couple of years would maximize future upside and value – the logic seems to make good sense.

The Player:

Hit: 50

Power: 55

Run: 55

Throw: 50

Field: 50

With such a small sample size against high level competition, it is very difficult to grade out Jones as a whole in an accurate manner. While he had a highly successful 2022 (.370 BA; 12 HR; .423 wOBA), Jones has a glaring hole in his game that leaves many evaluators questioning his long term viability as a top notch ceiling play. Jones’ swing is conducive to producing both high exit velocities, and doing it in a solid la distribution – in fact, Jones’ combination of the aforementioned traits are very similar to Joey Wiemer when he came out of the University of Cincinnati (very low LA averages, very high exit velo ceiling). Despite the whiff, Jones has legitimate upside in the hit tool in that he has very late entry into the hitting zone as a result of his hand load taking far too long to reach its peak. While Jones does create a ton of separation through the load, he opts to start his hands closer to the body, making the timing of the load’s completion too close to when he needs to internally rotate and get on plane. If Jones were to take an approach more similar to Mookie Betts (starting with further separation/letting extension further emphasize it), he would achieve the same separation without as much front to back movement – thus allowing him to enter the zone earlier with an equal amount of power output. Jones’ approach is about average, with his chase rates (22.9% vs all pitch types) being relatively uniform (highest chase = vs CB 28.7%) amongst all pitch types. He walks a fine amount as well, though the massive in zone miss vs offspeeds (34% vs SL; 33.3% vs CB; 37.8% vs CH) is what leads to his punch rate significantly separating from his walk rate. Jones’ solid twitch results in what appears to be very good rotational acceleration and bat speed, which is backed via his average and 90th percentile exit velos (93.6 & 110.8 mph respectively). While the aforementioned offspeed whiff is concerning, the slight load tweaks could help him lengthen out his margin for error in bat path, allowing it to play up to an average level. From a power standpoint, the exit data and physical twitch Jones possesses means it could play up, though the overall flatter swing path means he will likely be more of a gap to gap bat than a home run threat when it comes to slugging.

In the field, Jones brings a relatively average profile. He is an average to plus runner with solid overall reactions as a result of his plus twitch. His ability to track fly balls and create good angles again plays to the league status quo, and having had Tommy John with an already average arm from right, Jones will likely not hit much further above a role five type of arm grade. On the bases, Jones’ plus rotational acceleration makes it possible for him to steal a few more bags than players of his maximum running speed (14/15 in 2022) – he could be an average to plus base stealer at the highest level.

All in all, Jones’ projection is contingent upon whether or not the organization that drafts him is able to make the proper swing adjustments and path corrections to aid in his ability to hit all pitch types. Recognition may or may not come with time, but with the limited sample size coming off of the Tommy John recovery, its fair to assume that Jones is still readjusting to facing high level spin. He is a pretty high risk ceiling play, but for a team confident in their ability to develop, he could be a slam dunk draft pick.

Jud Fabian - OF, Florida

Pick Overview:

With the twenty-eighth pick, the Houston Astros will select Jud Fabian out of the University of Florida. Fabian, a second round pick in 2021 is as good a defensive outfielder as there is coming from the college ranks, and provides massive power upside for a center fielder. A major reason why I feel Fabian hasn’t climbed further up the ranks (for example far more sure of a bet with relatively similar upside to Dylan Beavers) is that the industry mostly knows what to expect out of him – he is an average contact bat with a lot of power and very good defense in center. This is extremely high value despite the punch rates and in high zone whiff vs most pitch types. That being said, he hits velo very well, and the reason for his heavy FB miss is due to the fact that he is a steep path which plays into his game. For the Astros, Fabian represents a player they can perfect and make a high impact talent. Offensively, Fabian plays into exactly what the Astros org has excelled with – he is twitchy player with an early angle set, good impact, and massive power. As a result, this feels like a very good fit for both sides.

Why Fabian at 1.28:

Fabian is a great fit for the Astros organization, which is why they will take him at twenty-eight. The org current lacks a ton of top end, high impact outfielders in their minor league ranks, but has done an outstanding job of developing them. Fabian falls into the category of early angle set power bats, which the Astros develop arguably better than any other organization in the sport (Bregman, Alvarez, Tucker, etc). To be able to land a player of this archetype that also brings elite athleticism and defense to the table will be nearly impossible to pass on – he is as sure a bet as you can get for a hitter entering the Astros organization. If Eric Brown were still on the board this would be another good fit, but with him going to Cleveland, Fabian is the natural choice at 28.

The Player:

Hit: 45

Power: 60

Run: 55

Throw: 50

Field: 55

Jud Fabian is an interesting case of a player who’s archetype and likely future evolution appears pretty well set in stone relative to most players in their draft year. Fabian’s hyper-twitchy 6’1’’ 190 frame allows him to play a premium center field, while utilizing elite rotational acceleration, bat speed, and mechanics built for power to maximize efficient run production (home runs). Fabian has an extremely interesting hit tool profile in that it could be improved while sacrificing power, but what lessens the hit tool maximizes what makes him an offensive prospect. Fabian has a very early angle set, staying on the path in which he creates his entire way through the swing. While its very important to teach barrel feel and path creativity, Fabian’s impact on the paths he creates is elite – with a line drive rate of 32.9%, an average exit velocity of 89.5, and nearly one in two batted balls being 95+, his ability to square the baseball as is cannot be denied. His steeper overall attack angles lead to fly balls, which for Fabian is the name of the game. He hit 44 home runs over his final two years at Florida, and was a constant threat in that lineup. This home run oriented path however opened up a massive hole in his swing that is particularly concerning in today’s game: struggles with elevated fastballs. In 2022, Fabian whiffed on 32% of in zone fastballs, with the majority of whiffs coming in the upper third of the strike zone. His whiff rates vs 95+ were relatively similar to below, meaning this is a path issue. Fabian’s path issue can be seen directly by the most thrown offspeed pitch that creates a relative tunnel to the FB: the slider. Fabian does a decent job of recognizing spin, it's just that his path stays on course to what it would be facing a FB – he often swings over sliders, and under fastballs. The net in the case of the slider is a 42.9% line drive rate, but a 37% in zone whiff rate (avg EV 97.7 mph). Fabian’s power profile is rooted in the fact that he has a steeper overall swing. While his 90th and max exit data is solid, Fabian hits home runs more in the way a Mookie Betts type does (getting it out, not hitting consistent mammoth shots) than a Stanton. He still figures to be a 30+ home run a year candidate – Fabian holistically is the definition of a three true outcomes hitter.

Defensively, Fabian is very good. He covers a solid amount of ground with his plus speed, and takes very good angles towards both ground and fly balls. Fabian is highly aggressive in his route running, which much like Drew Gilbert allows him to get to balls many other outfielders of his running speed can’t. His arm is relatively average, making him a glove first defensive asset. On the bases, Fabian flashes plus speed but is far from elite at reading pitchers. The potential is there, but currently his late jumps do ultimately result in some caught stealings.

All in all, what you see is what you get with Fabian. He is an average contact hitter with one exploitable weakness that is still capable of barreling all pitch types – his ability to produce in slugging is unquestionable, and the defensive profile is amongst the best in this draft class. He is a solid pickup for any team, but the Astros in particular are extremely well suited to extract everything possible from Fabian.

Thomas Harrington - RHP, Campbell

Pick Overview:

With the twenty-ninth pick, the Tampa Bay Rays will select Thomas Harrington out of Campbell University. Harrington brings an extremely desirable profile to the table, making him amongst the best collegiate arms in the class. While he is not an elite velo guy, the combination of his FB shape and release traits allow the pitch to play extremely effectively. Harrington also features one of the best SL/CH tunnels in the entire class, with both pitches (already plus) playing further above their trait based grades. For the Rays at 29, who are amongst the best in the league at developing both bats and arms, Harrington presents as a player that already has a fantastic foundation that can be further built upon. The main emphasis of his development would be strike throwing on his offspeeds (plus seeing if more velo can be extracted), and the Rays are more than well equipped to be able to accomplish this.

Why Harrington at 1.29:

The Rays are an organization that is loaded at nearly every position at the minor league level. While the only one that may be lacking in top end talent is behind the dish, there aren't many top level catchers left at this point, so the club will likely elect to take the player they feel is best and that they can maximize most. Harrington fits the billing here in that he brings a very good release profile and two plus offspeeds with a proven elite tunnel. I don’t know anything about how Campbell runs their pitching operation (tech, plyos, etc), so it's entirely possible the Rays elite PD resources could get further velo out of the starter as well. The Rays have take high schoolers in the first round of their last three drafts, though that appears to be more a testament in their ability to wait on players since they have an elite farm rather than an organizational preference. Its possible they go to one of the top high school arms (Porter, Snelling, Murphy, Ford, etc), but I feel they wont pass up on the traits Harrington in particular brings to the table.

The Player:

Fastball: 55

Slider: 55

Curveball: 45

Changeup: 60

Control: 55

Thomas Harrington is the definition of an arm that has an outstanding foundation with only a few things to address in player development before getting the call. The 6’2’’ 185 right hander is highly flexible/mobile and likely won’t put on a ton more muscle in pro ball (not physically maxed, but would rather maintain mobility than having him become too muscle-bound/stable). He is very athletic, and is capable of internally rotating to get his arm through at a very high level. His smooth operation begins on the left side of the mound, where he slowly gathers going into a relatively fast and bouncing leg kick. Harrington starts leaning prior to the apex of his leg lift, and begins his descent down the hill by sinking deep into his rear glute, which he maintains throughout his entire throwing motion. Harrington is a very good horizontal abductor, with him being able to create very good separation while still staying on time with his arm into foot strike. With extremely quick hips, Harrington internally rotates faster than many other arms in this class, finishing off his throwing motion from a mid ¾ slot. The result is a 5.5 foot release height, which plays massively into his FB, and entire arsenal’s profile. Tweaks for Harrington could include: a slight change in posture (though it could ruin his rel z profile) to better protect his elbow (slight added arm drag via a torso yank to the glove side to maintain slot), move to the right side of the mound to bolster slider’s horizontal profile.

Harrington’s fastball is a very effective pitch. Sitting at 91 but topping as high as 96, there is some more velocity that might be able to be tapped into. The shape of the pitch is outstanding given the release height, with an extremely vert heavy profile allowing it to dominate when elevated. Even more importantly, Harrington has outstanding command of the pitch – in 2022, he threw his fastball in the zone on 61.3% of his pitches. This is amongst the best in the class, further showcasing how complete of a pitch it already is. The club that drafts him will obviously put it under the microscope in regards to how they can add velo and if the spin orientation could improve the vert further, but all in all its as good a foundation as you can have on a fastball assuming room to grow.

Harrington’s changeup is amongst the best in this draft. Killing lift at an elite level, the slider can at times flash left handed slider vert, while running 17 inches at 84 mph. This weapon legitimately needs no tweaking in pitch design – in 2022, Harrington got 40.1% whiff on the CH, with a further 30.8% chase. The area of growth for Harrington on the changeup is in the feel department. He threw the CH for a strike 41.3% of the time this year – if he can bump the number up closer to 50%, he would be able to tap into the whiff even further, and with more pitches being competitive, may get excess chase as well.

Harrington’s slider is a very good offering. While the velocity doesn’t quite track with the CH (could be an area of growth if possible), the overall shape is quite good. The pitch drops in at near zero vert, but unlike a gyro type slider still cuts about eight inches to the glove-side. Not only that, but with the pitch dropping at a very similar rate to the changeup when it crosses the plate (velocity vectors nearly match), the pitch takes on a much more challenging vertical profile to barrel as well. The perceived cut on the pitch could be bolstered further via a move to the right side of the mound, though that would be at the expense of the changeup – the org that drafts him would need to weigh that decision (if he could locate FB at the same rate it might be the best call given RHH did much more damage against him in ‘22). He throws the pitch in zone at a solid rate (44.9%), though continuing to push strike throwing should still be emphasized. Harrington got pretty good whiff and chase all around on the pitch, which should continue to translate into pro ball

Harrington’s curveball is his least dangerous pitch. The upper 70s offering frankly doesn't bring much to the table in any way other than being a flat bat counter. First off, the curve features a pretty drastic bump (as seen via his VRA + low spin not encouraging an immediate bite downward via efficient magnus force), and the resulting shape, while decent still leaves a lot to be desired. The pitch is in a tougher spot from a development standpoint, as Harrington’s slot and resulting wrist flexion profile are not conducive to creating elite north to south movement – the best course of action is likely to see if he can throw the pitch harder while bringing the VRA back down to a neutral zero if possible. While it might play much closer to the slider there would at least be a tunnel to work with and it would not appear to be a sitting duck as it does at present when used in any situation other than an ambush.

Control wise, Harrington has flashed elite levels of strike throwing, but struggles to find high level consistency with his secondaries. The fastball, as mentioned above, is thrown for a strike at an elite rate. While the CH and SL flash good numbers, there is definitely room for improvement to help them play up further. While the CB in zone is the worst of the bunch, the pitch needs more pitch design tweaking before even needing to worry about its lowly in zone rate.

All in all, Harrington is a data darling with a solid foundation and clear room to grow. He has the potential to be a very fast riser (probably 2nd fastest behind Hjerpe). If the development is executed (and he maximizes), Harrington could be a very dangerous prospect moving up the ranks.

Brock Porter - RHP, Orchard Lake St. Mary's (MI)

Pick Overview:

With the thirtieth overall pick, the San Francisco Giants will select Brock Porter out of Orchard Lake St. Mary’s, Michigan. Porter, a power arm of power arms, is considered by many to be a top 10-15 prospect in this draft class (many top 10 projections). Between his high octane fastball (tops triple digits), one of the best changeups in the class, and an ever improving slider, the sky's the limit ceiling wise for the right hander. While he likely will not fall below the top 15, a couple of prospects take a random tumble every year – Porter will serve as this year’s in my mock. For the Giants, one of the best organizations in the sport, Porter would be the best player left on the board. The club doesn’t need to feel pressure to take a college player with a faster climb time here – Porter has legitimate ace stuff in his top 2 pitches. With Farhan Zaidi’s PD machine now running full go, Porter could well end up a monster coming out of this elite system.

Why Porter at 1.30:

Porter is a natural fit for the Giants here at 1.30. While the Giants have heavily favored taking college players over the years (last 4 1st rounders, 7 of last 8), Porter represents a talent that cannot be compared to at 30 overall. The ceiling is frankly far too high to pass up on, and even if he asks for a significantly over slot bonus, the club will be watering at the mouth to be able to get him going in Scottsdale. The club has developed arms exceptionally well of late, and if Porter follows suit, he could well be a future number one starter for the Giants.

The Player:

Fastball: 70

Slider: 55

Curveball: 45

Changeup: 60

Control: 50

Brock Porter is without a question one of the highest ceiling players in this year’s class. The 6’4’’ 208 right-hander is mostly maxed out physically, but will likely add the standard musculature and tone that comes with aging into adulthood. Porter’s build is very lanky and mobile – the nineteen year-old has extremely long levers and reasonably toned leg definition. He is hyper mobile, which plays into his mechanical operation significantly (shoulder, trunk, hip mobility are all exceptional). The key for Porter’s physical development will be to add enough strength and stability to maximize injury prevention while still maintaining the current mobility as much as possible. Mechanically, Porter works off of the right side of the mound and enters his leg lift (knee reaching just over waist height) in a very slow and controlled manner. From the apex of his leg lift, Porter accelerates downhill in a very quick and athletic way, maximizing his center of mass velocity. During his extension, Porter shows off his elite mobility via an immense horizontal abduction with elite posterior trunk tilt. This positioning allows Porter to create more velocity than almost any other arm in the class. At foot strike, Porter’s lower half is in a fantastic spot (where he is with his hinge to internal rotation), however his arm is still a little late into uplift. The net of this is Porter having to yank his torso to the glove-side in order to clear room for his very whippy and fast arm action. Porter is a pretty good blocker and has elite shoulder mobility (external rotation during arm action), but struggles to offload stress from the elbow, making his throwing motion more stressful than need be. Porter releases relatively over the top, at what would be considered a high ¾ profile.

Porter’s fastball is as good as it gets in this prep class. Sitting in the mid to upper 90s, occasionally touching triple digits, Porter can attribute his elite velo to his unicorn mobility. While the shape has a decent profile, he is a pronation heavy wrist flexion arm – the result is excess finger pressure coming on the index finger, which can lead to rolls and a more horizontal shape. This leaves room for concern with the pitch becoming more dead zoney, so emphasis on pressure point orientation on the ball will be key during his development.

Porter’s changeup is without a question his best secondary pitch. The cambio, which sits in the upper 70s to low 80s range kills both velo and lift exceptionally. Not only that, but Porter’s exceptional pronation profile means that he is able to achieve elite levels of run on the pitch. The majority of Porter’s changeup horizontal movement is in the second half of ball flight – with his fastball also being rolled, there is an outstanding vertical tunnel between the two pitches, with the changeup seemingly freezing mid-flight before completely falling off the table to the arm side. Porter has a solid feel on the pitch as well, giving it top of the line potential.

Porter’s slider is a major work in progress, and has taken significant strides over the last few months. His extreme pronate heavy flexion profile means that Porter struggles to supinate at an elite level. The net has very little potential for a sweeping slider, and a gyro heavy offering. Porter is learning to make the most of his profile’s few shortcomings with this pitch, and has added significant velo, with it now tracking up to 87 mph (normally sits low-mid 80s). If Porter can continue to throw the slider at a higher velo while maintaining gyro shape, it could become a serious weapon. To help it play up further, it would not be surprising to see the club that drafts him throw a cutter into the mix as well – it would likely run into the 90s, and would have exceptional front to back play with the slider to help get more SL whiff and mishits.

Porter’s curveball is his worst pitch, and frankly might get scrapped in pro ball. While it sits in the mid to upper 70s, Porter’s wrist flexion profile does not work with a curveball. The pitch features a significant bump and hangs up for far too long during ball flight. Even from a behind home video angle, it is extremely easy to pick the pitch up – I cannot see big league hitters struggling to handle it at all. The swap of the CB for a CT is probably the best course of action if he wants to throw four pitches.

Porter from a control standpoint is all around solid. He still has a tendency to lose his fastball via excessive rolling (same can apply with the changeup), and the struggles with spin can lead to an overcompensation of wrist flexion/supination leading to spikes. For a prep arm he is by no means behind the eight ball with his control, it will be a part of his natural maturation process.

All in all, Porter is a massive upside talent. His uncommon high octane pronation heavy profile leaves him with arguably the best two pitch mix in the entire draft, though the lack of a feel for supination means he will need to take a velo first approach for any type of spin he throws. The development of his fastball shape, command, and how he goes about the aforementioned spin problem will define his development. I see him as a long play in the minors, which is why I think he will either go in the top 10-15 as projected, or fall to the late end of the first round.

Jordan Beck - OF, Tennessee

Pick Overview:

With the thirty-first pick (Comp Round 1), the Colorado Rockies will select Jordan Beck out of Tennessee. Beck is a very high level athlete for a player of his size – the combination of twitch and power is extremely attractive, which is why many teams see him as a ceiling play in the later parts of the first round and early second. Beck brings a lot to the table, with him producing massive exit velocities (particularly vs FB), playing plus defense, and having a cannon of an arm, he profiles as an ideal right fielder if he is able to continue to develop at a high level. For the Rockies, Beck feels like a near perfect fit. The organization has shown an affinity for tooled up athletes, which is exactly what Beck could bring to a corner outfield position for them. At Coors he could hit for power while covering a lot of ground (and throwing guys out) in what is the largest outfield in the MLB. His profile screams Colorado fit.

Why Beck at 1.31:

At thirty-one, Jordan Beck represents everything that you would want out of a corner outfielder (mainly right fielder) playing at Coors Field. Beck, despite having some swing and miss (mostly trouble with spin) can produce big time power – something that would play up even further at altitude. Additionally, playing in thin air would be massively beneficial to his hit tool, as breaking balls would not move quite as much; Beck is much like Jud Fabian in that he is an early angle set, stay on bat bat – having the ball drop less often would mean he has a much better shot of the flight matching his own attack and bat angles. The Rockies are an organization that has shown they value players with his attributes (holistic athleticism with size, power bat) many times over. Even though they are getting more outfield heavy, the club doesn't need to go in a different direction if it develops outfielders well. Every club wants high quality bats – if the Rockies are in need of arms (and don’t feel they like any available), they can simply draft a bat, develop him, and if there is a log jam at the top trade for a position of need. Another alternative here could be a prep arm such as Snelling or Ford, though I feel the Rockies tap into their past archetype/PD strength here at 31. Beck is a natural fit.

The Player:

Hit: 45

Power: 55

Run: 55

Throw: 60

Field: 50

Jordan Beck is one of the more interesting ceiling plays in the 2022 draft class. The 6’3’’ 225 outfielder is a specimen – he is highly athletic and explosive. While being capable of playing a plus outfield in a corner and providing immense power, his hit tool, specifically bat path will be what defines his entire professional profile. The aforementioned hit tool flashes signs of playing elite, with Beck hitting line drives on 31.3% of his batted ball outcomes in 2022. With an average exit velocity of 93.7 mph, most of his batted balls are highly competitive from an offensive perspective. However, when diving deeper it appears that Beck resembles fellow SEC outfielder Jud Fabian in regards to how his swing traits and offensive profile may play at the next level – Beck, much like Fabian has an early angle set swing with very little path adjustments. Unlike Fabian, however, Beck absolutely mashes fastballs all over the zone. In 2022, Beck hit line drives on 38.5% of fastballs he hit, with 86.4% of FB batted balls being over 95 mph off the bat (only 16.7% in zone whiff). Beck even has a track record with barreling fastballs – when combining his last two seasons, Beck’s average exit velo vs FB 90+ is 98.5, with there being next to no drop of when elevating the velocity (98.3 avg ev vs 95+; 66% LD rate). The only issue that can be identified from his fastball batted balls is that when elevated, he often gets on top of the ball, driving it into the ground. Why is this an area of concern? The issue is rooted in his lack of path variation: Beck sets his angle, and much like the aforementioned Fabian stays on it. This can clearly be seen when assessing his ability to hit spin. While Beck’s whiff rates were only poor against sliders (CB whiff will be average with level based regression), his impact as a result of staying on a particular path is naturally poor, but can deliver massively when lined up correctly. Beck’s slider numbers go as follows:

in zone whiff - 31.8%; LD rate - 20%; avg ev - 85; la - -4.1

His CB exit data looks very similar in regards to LA distribution and impact. When watching the film, its clear as day to see that Beck sets his angle for a fastball, and doesn't have the ability to completely alter his path to be steeper – he still gets contact, but it isnt great impact, resulting on him topping the baseball at a high velocity. If Beck’s path variability plays up, he could be an absolute monster. In the power department, Beck is capable of delivering considerably. He is extremely strong with plus twitch, and regularly produces exit velos near or over 110 mph. He hit 18 home runs in 2022, and definitely has 30 HR a year power in the tank.

Defensively, Beck’s profile is buoyed by his elite level arm. From a corner, you can’t ask for much more from him. Beck uses his plus speed and athleticism to track down balls at a solid rate, and his speed makes him a decent threat on the bases despite his reading of pitchers not being very high level.

All in all, Beck is a highly-tooled up corner outfielder with three to four legitimate plus tools. It will be the hit tool that defines his career, but he is a solid ceiling play for the late first to early second.

Jackson Ferris - LHP, IMG Academy (FL)

Pick Overview:

With the thirty-second pick, the Cincinnati Reds will select Jackson Ferris out of IMG Academy in Florida. The six-four left hander features a solid three pitch mix, with the top two options being a high ride fastball running up into the mid 90s (92-96) and a changeup meant to tunnel off of the FB before running away to the arm side (84-88). Ferris is an interesting profile in that he has a relatively high effort delivery when trying to hit the mid nineties, but has immense mobility – he will be able to likely add further velo as he matures physically (his 6’4’’ 195 frame is far from being filled out). Ferris can attack in most areas of the zone, but without a true velo secondary featuring cut has clear room for arsenal growth. For the Reds, they will be doubling down on high school arms with the selection of Ferris. He is another projectable left hander with a very different profile to Barriera, and figures to be a very good pickup for the organization.

Why Ferris at 1.32:

The selection of Ferris at thirty-two will be a clear sign that the Reds are prioritizing the development of young arms in their rebuild. With the pitching side of their PD department having had more recent success, doubling down on players of that position would not be surprising. The quality and projection that Ferris brings is unquestionable – he could easily be an upper half of the rotation starter. With tweaks to the arsenal such as the addition of a cutter, Ferris’ world of sequencing and tunnels could open up very quickly. The Reds pride themselves on developing high level spin (and have the track record to boot), having dubbed themselves “spin city” – they would likely do a fantastic job of developing said spin with Ferris, helping to maximize his potential, and seeing him become a fixture in the Reds’ future rotation.

The Player:

Fastball: 55

Curveball: 50

Changeup: 55

Control: 50

Jackson Ferris is one of the most interesting prep arms in this year’s class. The 6’4’’ 195 left-hander has an outstanding build for a pitcher with a lot more room to grow. Ferris’ levers are very long – his legs stand out in particular, with them being extremely flexible and still having room to pack on more muscle. The same can be said for his midsection, where his glutes can be strengthened along with the muscles around the pelvis and hips. This physical build up will play immensely in helping Ferris be able to hit the mid nineties with much less effort in the throwing motion. Ferris’ upper body is hyper-mobile, particularly his shoulders. He can retract his scaps at a very good level, and has outstanding shoulder mobility as seen via his external rotation, and ability to get from uplift to peak ER with very little effort in a rapid manner. Mechanically, Ferris works from the left side of the rubber out of both the windup and stretch. Ferris’ leg lift is fairly quick and very athletic, featuring a slight sink into the rear glute as the right knee reaches its apex. During the leg lift, Ferris counter rotates his upper body in what looks like a left handed dialed down version of the Tim Lincecum leg lift (emphasis on sinking into glute during lift and counter rotating). As he separates, Ferris has a very funky jerking action, where his leg comes forward into extension with his glove arm pointing straight forward and the throwing arm dropping immediately down the side of his back leg (again like Lincecum). As he gets to foot strike, Ferris maintains his counter rotation via elite trunk tilt, though his lower half does have a tendency to internally rotate prematurely. As the arm action begins, the plus trunk tilt turns into solid thoracic extension, and despite the arm arriving relatively late compared to his lower half, the trunk motion helps keep the levers more in sync. Ferris does an outstanding job of blocking and lining his hip and shoulder angles up going into release – his release profile is very high, so being able to match the angles is quite difficult, and is a major testament to his athleticism.

Ferris’ fastball is definitely his most high value pitch, and still has room to grow further. Sitting in the low nineties, but topping as high as 96, it has an extremely verty profile. The shape gives Ferris the opportunity to locate his fastball in any part of the strike zone to garner whiffs – he can climb the ladder, or catch the bottom of the zone via perceived spike to get calls. The development of Ferris’ fastball will come via his performance improvements – right now Ferris’ throwing motion is very high effort when trying to throttle the pitch, when he gets stronger he should be able to sit in the 94-96 range.

Ferris’ curveball is a solid pitch due to the fact that it can play up beyond its metrics as a result of Ferris’ release traits. Sitting in the mid to upper 70s (75-79), the pitch primarily features a very 12/6 shape. While this is ideal given his over the top release slot (lower VRA, emphasize north/south movement via promotion of top spin), Ferris does have a tendency to supinate in excess, resulting in a more horizontally shaped curveball. While the shape will undoubtedly be doubled down on once Ferris enters an org, the ability to supinate opens the doors in pitch design to being able to add a slider or cutter to create a vertical and velo tunnel with the changeup.

Ferris’ changeup is the best of his offspeed pitches. It has some front to back play with the fastball while averaging 85-88 mph, but the vertical and horizontal separation from the fastball is where the pitch makes its stake. The majority of the horizontal on Ferris’ changeup comes late on in ball flight, meaning the FB/CH tunnel is exceptional during the time a hitter calibrates his bat angles. The addition of a hard slider or cutter could add a second CH tunnel which would further bolster the effectiveness of the pitch.

Ferris does a pretty good job in the control department. While fastball miss is relatively common when Ferris tries to throw hard (excess effort leads to inconsistency in motion from IR on, high effort, bad location), the CB miss is the next easiest to correct. As mentioned above, Ferris can at times over-supinate, resulting in a more horizontal spin direction than ideal, and what ends up looking like a yanked or spiked slider. He does a good job with the changeup for a prep arm, showing an immense amount of feel for his age on the pitch.

All in all, Ferris is a FB first potential power left hander with a solid base and a lot of room to still grow. He likely projects in the upper half of a rotation if his development goes right, though the addition of a cutter/slider could unlock a lot more from the lefty. He is a solid pickup for the late first to early second rounds.

Connor Prielipp - LHP, Alabama

Pick Overview:

With the thirty-third overall pick, the Baltimore Orioles will select Connor Prielipp out of the University of Alabama. Despite undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2021, Prielipp remains one of the top collegiate arms in the class, and may in fact get over slot money if taken in the competitive balance rounds. While his surgery rehab will be a part of the ramp up into player development, Prielipp brings a very solid three-pitch arsenal to the table. The fastball sits in the low nineties touching as high as 96 (has decent shape); it has an outstanding tunnel with Prielipp’s top of the line gyro slider which maintains shape even in the upper eighties. Not only does Prielipp have a good feel for spin, but has a very good changeup shape as well (could be from either inefficient spin or a good feel for pronation). The three pitch mix is very advanced and will require less development (FB shape mainly) than many other arms in the class. A high ceiling that is attainable with less turnaround time would be a fantastic match for the Orioles, who saved money going with Brooks Lee at 1.1. Going slightly over slot on Prielipp will still give them tons of financial flexibility for their next pick at 42, where they could again go over slot to take a player that slips down (maybe a ceiling play). Prielipp could feature in the show in the 2025 range, which would go right in line with the timeline of the Orioles being a legitimate contender.

Why Prielipp at 1.33:

Opting with Prielipp at 33 is a bit more of a long play while also being a more expensive option. However, this is exactly what the Orioles would anticipate if they are to take Brooks Lee with their first selection. Prielipp comes with a fantastic foundation including velocity and two very good secondaries… and a proven college track record. Even if it takes a bit longer to get him going on the development side (as a result of his recovery -- he is now throwing 50 pitch sims/pens), a three year turnaround would see him reach the show as an impact maker as the Orioles have entered a competitive window. Reggie Crawford could also be in play here at 33, but with the extra cash to play around with, I feel Baltimore goes with the starter in Prielipp over the likely faster rising reliever in Crawford.

The Player:

Fastball: 55

Slider: 65

Changeup: 55

Control: 50

Connor Prielipp is one of the highest ceiling arms in the 2022 draft class, and would easily be a top 15 pick if it weren’t for his undergoing Tommy John surgery last year. The 6’2’’ 210 left-hander has pretty long levers for an arm of his size, and despite having some solid lower half definition and strength, it's tough to see much bulk in his torso and arms. Prielipp’s outstanding velocity and profile comes from his plus plus lower half strength and mobility, which sees him sink very deep into his rear glute during his extension while holding counter rotation into IR. Mechanically, Prielipp works off of the right side of the mound (gyro SL, CH with run gets further perceived run), and has a very high leg raise, where his knee reaches up to the letters. During his leg raise, he shifts his hands out and around the lifted knee, before bringing the hands back into the torso as he separates and extends toward the plate. Prielipp’s stride is very closed, which allows him to sink deeper into his rear glute, riding the mound as far as possible until his eventual foot strike. At plant, Prielipp’s arm is in a very good position for optimal ground force use – despite him not being an otherworldly horizontal abductor, he is able to make up for this via a fast arm action, and max ground force output. Going through internal rotation, Prielipp does yank a bit which leads to some arm drag – a major reason why excess stress was loaded on the elbow.. Could have been a TJ factor. Prilipp does a good job of blocking and gets an average amount of thoracic extension (why he isn't able to lower the release height any further), and releases the ball from a high ¾ slot as a result of his glove side trunk tilt.

Prielipp’s fastball is a very interesting pitch in that the velocity is there, but the shape is not outstanding. The pitch sits right in the dead zone given his release traits, but due to his outstanding ability to command the pitch, it plays up above its metric grade. Prielipp does not get a ton of whiff or chase on the pitch, but that could also be a result of his targeting at Alabama. In 2021 prior to going down, most of Prielipp’s FB locations were down in the zone (the best spot for them to play given his rel traits), the second most common quadrant he threw the pitch was high to the arm side – which was also the quadrant in which opposing hitters’ ISOs were highest vs his FB. Its possible that the pitch will struggle to play elite as a result of the exit data, which could warrant experimentation with a SI, but assuming at the very least maintenance of velo and better execution when he is fully up and running, there’s no reason it wont play at a plus level.

Prielipp’s slider is arguably the best gyro offering in this year’s draft. Thrown at 84.6 (topping 89), the slider flashes serious velo. Not only that, but the pitch’s shape maintains its gyro nature at high velocities, averaging only about one inch of vert. The slider does an outstanding job of playing off the fastball, which resulted in an outstanding 57.7% whiff rate prior to Prielipp’s injury (34% chase as well). The only thing holding this pitch back from a 70 grade is Prielipp’s control of it. With under a 30% strike rate in 2021, Prielipp needs to stay in and around the zone more to let the deadly shape at velo do its damage.

Prielipp’s changeup is another plus offering in that the lefty has shown he can kill vert and create arm-side run while also having a feel for spin. This could come via a seam shifted wake on an inefficient CH, but its also possible he is a good pronator. While the pitch doesn't quite have the vertical profile to create a north/south slider tunnel, it can flash it at times. With under 10 inches of vert consistently, and run around 15 inches, its a nasty pitch considering its thrown at a similar velo to his slider. The combo of the shape and velocity alone makes it play plus, but the matching velo in particular still gives the pitch enough east/west separation from the slider to create a very good tunnel.

Prielipp’s control is all around solid but not elite. While his FB in zone rate is exceptional (60.1%), Prielipp’s slider command leaves a lot to be desired. Before the injury, Prielipp was only able to locate his best pitch in the zone on 28.6% of his attempts. This is frankly the most important aspect of his development along with the fastball shape – if you take the slider out of the equation, Prielipp would become an average arm with two pitches. Thus, the SL accuracy is unbelievably important for him, and will need to be a big factor for the beginning of his time in pro ball.

All in all, Prielipp presents a fantastic ceiling play with room to grow across the board. He may have had Tommy John already, but with proper care and maintenance, a team should not be put off by this fact when he comes up at the top of their boards from the middle of the first round onward.

Owen Murphy - RHP, Riverside-Brookfield (IL)

Pick Overview:

With the thirty-fourth pick in the 2022 draft, the Arizona Diamondbacks will select Owen Murphy out of Riverside-Brookfield, Illinois. Murphy is an ever improving talent that has shown potential as both a bat and arm – he won Gatorade Player of the Year in Illinois as a two way talent. Despite that, his likely future is as a pitcher (how this evaluation will be written). Murphy brings an evolving arsenal to the table that is starting to shape up very nicely. With him being more physically mature, he now sits in the low to mid 90s, topping at 96, and his CT/CH combo creates a very good tunnel both vertically and front to back. He rounds the arsenal out with a curveball that will probably play about average. For the Diamondbacks, Murphy is a solid pickup in that he will have plenty of time to fine tune his stuff and grow, but also has a clear direction to go in his development. The team is prioritizing going young in the draft, so taking a prep arm after going with Jones, a potential over slot cornerstone makes sense.

Why Murphy at 1.34:

Taking a prep arm makes logical sense for the Diamondbacks here at 1.34. The club has prioritized athletic bats with their first round picks over the last few years, and will again with Druw Jones at second overall. Here at thirty-four, they have an opportunity to take a very malleable prep arm with strong upside – Murphy is exactly that. Given his past as a high level two way talent, the athleticism is clearly there. Additionally, he has not spent all of his time working as a pitcher and on pitcher related drills and body work. This means he likely has more to access in the tank, and in regards to his feel for his offspeeds. Murphy has a clear sense of arsenal direction with which to take – the high velo change means a cutter would be added to match velo and very (which he has already done), so it will be about fine tuning from the get go in a holistic development process. This type of development is what Arizona has shown they are buying into with their future roster build, so the shoe really fits for Murphy here at 34.

The Player:

Fastball: 55

Cutter: 55

Changeup: 50

Curveball: 45

Control: 50

Owen Murphy is a player with a very high ceiling as a pitcher in that he has yet to commit to being a full time pitcher, but has shown massive upside via his top level athleticism and feel for pitching. Murphy’s 6’1’’ 190 frame is relatively filled out – he has very strong yet flexible legs and built gutes. The lower half is very advanced, and with his shoulders being broad and the trunk strong, Murphy has a very durable yet athletic build. Murphy’s best attributes coming from his athleticism are that he can control his body extremely well (this coordination allows for elite synching), and that his high level of athleticism is rooted in very good hip and lower half twitch, which is why he has started to see his velocity shoot up in the last few months. Mechanically, Murphy works off the left side of the mound, starting with his feet about shoulder width apart. Going into his leg lift, Murphy kicks out and back, resulting in a lot of lower half counter rotation – during this leg kick he maintains his torso position as net neutral/perpendicular to the plate. As he separates, Murphy maintains counter rotation via shooting his lead leg directly out in front of him as he glides down the hill. At foot strike, Murphy’s arm positioning is outstanding – his horizontal abduction to uplift is already complete, meaning the arm is already in a position to come forward, which maximizes ground force application. At this point, he also starts to internally rotate his back hip, further showcasing his ability to sync. As he rotates and the arm action starts, Murphy does a good job of keeping his trunk stacked until thoracic extension, though he does get some excess glove side trunk tilt into the throw. He releases from a relatively over the top slot, though it could be considered high ¾.

Murphy’s fastball is the pitch that has taken the most strides in the past year. Sitting in the 92-94 range and topping out at 96, its shape is very vertically oriented as a result of his higher slot profile. The pitch has seen a drastic uptick in velo over the last year, and I would expect that trend to continue as he gets on a pitching only program. While it can play in both the north and south of the strike zone, it is probably best suited taking advantage of its verty nature at the bottom of the zone due to the release traits.

Murphy’s cutter is the newest addition to his arsenal, and is without question his best secondary. Sitting in the 87-90 range, it has enough front to back play with the fastball to create poorer contact or whiff, with the cut creating a solid horizontal separation from his high velo changeup. The cutter’s main strengths are that it can play with a similar vertical profile and velo to the changeup, resulting in what is a very good tunnel. This is a much better option for him compared to a slider, as the cutter is better suited to play off of both FB and CH rather than exclusively a FB if he were to go the gyro route.

Murphy’s changeup, despite lacking a ton of elite movement, is thrown at a very high velocity (85-87). While it does have some run, the main use of the pitch is to serve as a counter to the fastball, using it in FB counts to get soft contact or miss via its different shape. The addition of the cutter helps the pitch play up significantly, as their similar velo and vertical profile results in a fantastic tunnel prior to the changeup beginning to run more to the arm side later on in flight. It is an average overall pitch with the ability to play up via sequencing and tunnel play.

Murphy’s curveball is an average pitch. Sitting in the 75-79 range, the shape gets a good amount of north/south action while also achieving some decent glove side cut. It has a pretty significant bump that comes later on after release (takes a little time for the spin to kick in to get the pitch to bite) which makes it easier to handle for high level bats. It will need to be used more as a surprise freeze or steal a strike pitch more than a regular fixture for getting outs (will work vs flat swing types). It should play at an average level with continued development.

Murphy’s control is very advanced for a pitcher that doesn't throw full time. He is able to put the fastball in the zone consistently, but is still gaining feel for both the cutter and changeup. When he loses his curveball, it usually doesn't come via a spike, but is when the ball slips upward out of the hand during supination resulting in a vertical miss north.

All in all, Murphy has a pretty clear cut path of development. With his profile continuing to grow, he does show extreme projectability assuming body and program changes suited exclusively for pitching. For a team like the Diamondbacks that are looking to go young and can wait on a prep talent, Murphy feels like a very good fit.

Peyton Graham - 3B, Oklahoma

Pick Overview:

With the thirty-fifth overall pick, the Kansas City Royals will select Peyton Graham out of the University of Oklahoma. Graham is one of the highest ceiling plays in this draft class in that he is an elite athlete with outstanding infield actions, and a real power projection. The infielder absolutely mashes fastballs, with his 90th and max exit velos (106.1, 111) suggesting an all-star caliber output, his early development, specifically offensively against secondaries is going to be what makes or breaks his profile and career. The struggles against offspeeds are very prominent (44.1% in zone whiff, 33.7% chase; 32% in zone whiff vs CB; 33.8% in zone whiff vs CH, 40.6% chase), which leaves his bat to ball as questionable at best when looking forward. Despite that, I feel the Royals go with him as a major ceiling play at 35. The skills he brings to the table are very hard to match amongst the draft class, and even though they took another 3B in the first round in Cam Collier, Graham has the athleticism to stick at any infield spot. Taking Graham is betting on the future potential of the player across the board – he represents the highest ceiling play left at this point in the draft, and the Royals are primed to take that shot.

Why Graham at 1.35:

The Royals taking Graham here at thirty-five is an example of them going all in on ceiling rather than taking a safer bet with a lower potential long term value. He is the definition of a bat with a proven track record of production, meaning the ceiling is very tangible. Despite taking another 3B in the 1st round in Cam Collier, Graham is a far superior athlete, and will be capable of sticking at multiple positions all over the field. The bet here is that the Royals would be able to find a spot for him somewhere if the offensive potential comes to fruition. If this is the case, the Royals will be cashing in on what is a top 10-15 draft pick ceiling, which would be a massive return on the investment.

The Player:

Hit: 40

Power: 55

Run: 60

Throw: 60

Field: 55

Peyton Graham is a hyper athletic ceiling play of an infielder, with amongst the best potential in this year’s draft class. The 6’3’’ 185 Graham is very skinny for his frame, with extremely long levers and very little muscle definition. Despite the lack of musculature (which could be put on to an extent when he gets on a pro ball performance program – though he could be built extremely skinny, limiting net results). Where he lacks muscle, Graham makes up for in twitch – he is one of the fastest rotational accelerators in the class, is quick to react, and produces very good bat speed. He is also extremely mobile, which sees Graham create elite separation when hitting, and to throw harder via elite hip shoulder separation and shoulder mobility. As a contact bat, Graham has seen very mixed results which will see his struggles be further exacerbated against a higher level of play in pro ball. Graham’s line drive rate in 2022 was 30.9%, which goes right in line with many college level first rounders. However, his average exit velocity is low (86.4), suggesting that his impact is poor overall, or that quality contact comes in spurts. When diving deeper, its clear that the issues with Graham’s hit tool are rooted in an inability to recognize and adjust to offspeed pitches. This year, Graham struggled greatly with recognizing higher velocity secondaries in particular, with his chase rates being a whopping 40.6% vs CH, and 36.7% vs SL. With level based regression in mind, these numbers will frankly not work at all, and need to be addressed the moment he gets drafted. Not only does he struggle with chase (oftentimes reacting late to SL and CH movement), but when coupled with path issues there is a lot of whiff in zone as well. This year, Graham whiffed on 44.1% of in zone sliders, a rate that would make it hard to draft him if his ceiling weren’t as high as it is – he also whiffed 32% vs in zone CB and 33.8% vs in zone CH respectively. These factors make his low impact unsurprising. It is clear that even when Graham recognizes offspeed (which is still a struggle vs CH and SL), he can’t adjust his angles to barrel it. There is no better example of this than looking at his stats vs CB in 2022: 24.9% chase; 32% in zone whiff; 28.6% barrel rate; avg EV 79.3; max EV 108.2

Graham does not square the ball often – the barrel rate is solid, but his average impact is subpar to say the least based on the whiff, chase, and average exit data. It will be key for teams to work on his pitch recognition from the start, or the club may have a very uphill battle in getting him to the show. Graham’s power potential is very high – he hit 20 home runs in 2022, and has produced elite exit velos (90th 106.1; max 111). Additionally, the fact that Graham is extremely skinny means he should gain further power potential once his body becomes fully mature and he is on a pro performance program. Its possible he doesn’t fill out much more, but even 5-10 more lbs of muscle will help.

Defensively, Graham is as good as it gets in this draft class. Capable of playing anywhere on the infield, he is a fantastic mover, and his defensive actions are cremé de la cremé. There is some room to improve, but Graham projects to provide a very good defensive profile, and will be able to do it in a number of places – there is a lot of value in that. On the bases, Graham flashes plus speed, and is a very good base stealer. In 2022, he stole 34 bases on 36 attempts – Graham, figures to be a serious base stealing threat in pro ball.

All in all, Graham represents a very high risk, high reward profile for an organization. An industry member has used the analogy of a prospect being like a ball of clay – you (PD) can shape the clay however you want, and sometimes it doesn't work, but if the clay is good the pottery will be better if made as best as possible. While there are glaring areas that need addressing, Graham is a ball of very good clay.

Reggie Crawford - LHP, UConn

Pick Overview:

With the thirty-sixth pick, the Pittsburgh Pirates will select Reggie Crawford out of UConn. Crawford might be the most enigmatic top prospect in this draft, as he has only thrown a total of seven innings in college, but is without question one of the most valuable arms in the class. The left hander, prior to shutting down for Tommy John surgery, was throwing up to 100 mph, mostly sitting in the 97-98 range. He also featured a burgeoning slider in the mid eighties that was reasonably inconsistent in shape, but took on a gyro-ish type of movement. Crawford is an absolute white whale in that he is already throwing triple digits with a high potential secondary and has yet to receive a full time professional pitching coaching program. He was a two way player at UConn, and again only threw seven innings – he could well grow far more when he comes back from his injury rehab. For a team like the Pirates, who will be entering a competitive window in the next few years, Crawford presents as the guy that could well be their closer. Once he is fine tuned, having an elite two pitch mix while maybe adding a third would be more than enough to be a dominant reliever. Signing a closer, or even a quality reliever for a total of $2.1 million is fantastic value, and is an elite return on the investment. Instead of going for a long play, Pittsburgh will look for a quicker turnaround with a massive payoff in drafting and developing Crawford.

Why Crawford at 1.36:

Potential, ROI, and turnaround time all play a role in why the Pirates would select Crawford here at 36. It is not often that a club drafts a reliever in the first or second rounds, but the sky is legitimately the limit for Crawford. With very little high level pitching experience, and thus top coaching, Crawford has a ton of room to still grow. He is throwing triple digits, and the slider looks like a legitimate future weapon after going through pitch design camp (and with experience). The Pirates are club that looks for value in the draft, oftentimes favoring college players due to their experience/track record, and a better picture of what their body is or how it will end up. While Crawford doesn’t have either of the first two, the projection is there, and they could easily attack player development once he is healthy – with the need to only throw two pitches as a reliever, the climb could be very quick for him by the time he gains slider feel (once it is the right shape). Two years in the minors (calling 2022 a wash for surgical recovery) is more than enough to be able to accomplish this – Crawford could be a dominant fixture in the Pirates bullpen by 2024/5. Call that a return on your investment.

The Player:

Fastball: 70

Slider: 55

Control: 50

Reggie Crawford is one of the most interesting prospects in this draft class in that his selection, much like Peyton Graham’s will be 100% based on ceiling and how he can be developed. The 6’4’’ 235 Crawford is without a question physically maxed out – he is extremely built in his lower half, and with broad shoulders and a strong chest is an extremely physical pitcher. Crawford suffered a UCL tear in 2021, resulting in his undergoing Tommy John surgery, so his development will begin once he has recovered. Mechanically, Crawford works off of the left side of the mound, which gives his inconsistently shaped slider (looks gyro heavy sometimes, is a sweeper at times) some extra perceived glove side cut. His windup is extremely rapid – after rushing his stacking over the rubber, Crawford has a quick leg lift that gets up to about belt high. Crawford is a late separator with his hands, and sinks down into his rear glute while reaching his front leg forward. By the time he separates, Crawford is deep into the left glute, with his leg completely extended into the stride. As he gets into foot strike, Crawford goes into his uplift and horizontal abduction – while he does abduct well (doesn’t maximize it), it is a very fast uplift that puts his arm in an optimal position to maximize the transition of ground force into the ball (creating efficient velo). At foot strike, Crawford’s hips begin to internally rotate, and his trunk remains very stable. He does a very good job of blocking, and showcases elite shoulder external rotation as his arm comes through at a ¾ slot.

Crawford’s fastball is the main reason this unicorn case of a college arm with 7 ip going in the first two rounds is going to happen. Sitting at 97-98 and topping out at 100, the pitch is amongst the hardest in the draft, and may be the highest value left handed fastball in the draft this year. The fastball shape can be inconsistent at times, with it flashing a very good vertical profile at its best. However, Crawford does have a tendency to slightly supinate on the pitch, causing inefficient spin and thus taking away from its vertical profile. It will be up to the club that drafts him to ensure that he can keep his fastball efficient, as the 17 inches of vert from a 5’8’’ release height will play at a high level without question. 100 @ 17’v 15’h from a 5’8’’ release height is a 70 grade fastball, and Crawford’s is coming from the left side. There isn’t much else to really say.

Crawford’s slider is a major work in progress, but showed big time strides before he went down with the injury. Sitting in the low to mid eighties (82-85), the slider has been relatively inconsistent with its shape, but has been most effective when used as a sweeper. If Crawford is capable of throwing a sweeper at +/- 83, while also adding a cutter in the 90 mph range, he would have a very difficult three way front to back between his arsenal; his feel for supination is pretty good, so he should be able to achieve a decent shape on a cutter as well. It's tougher to make a call on grading the slider out since there is such a small sample size and a lot of pitch design/feel work to still do, but the pitch looks like it could be a serious weapon in the future.

From a control standpoint, Crawford looks like an arm without a ton of experience. He does a pretty good job of keeping the fastball in and around the zone, but his feel for the newer slider is not quite there yet. The issue with the slider comes from his finger pressure and wrist flexion – he can oftentimes put too much pressure on the thumb, causing it to slip upward and the ball to spin out to the arm side; on other occasions, Crawford over supinates which sees the ball end up missing in the dirt to the glove side. The shape consistency along with his release profile are things that will improve over time with pro ball coaching and consistent use, so it isn't anything to be concerned over.

All in all, Crawford brings an elite profile to the table. When he comes back from his injury, he will end up having two plus to plus plus offerings that could dominate at the big league level. Once he gets his FB shape consistent and his slider down, he will be an extremely fast riser though the minors, likely featuring in a bullpen by 2024 or 2025.

Robby Snelling - LHP, McQueen (NV)

Pick Overview: