Background: Maternal and infant mortality are highly devastating, yet, in many cases, preventable events for a community. The human development of a country is a strong predictor of maternal and infant mortality, reflecting the importance of socioeconomic factors in determinants of health. Previous research has shown that the Human Development Index (HDI) predicts infant mortality rate (IMR) and the maternal mortality ratio (MMR). Inequality has also been shown to be associated with worse health in certain populations. The main purpose of the present study was to determine the correlation and predictive power of the Inequality Adjusted Human Development Index (IHDI) as a measure of inequality with the Infant Mortality Rate (IMR), Maternal Mortality Rate (MMR), Early Neonatal Mortality Rate (ENMR), Late Neonatal Mortality Rate (LNMR), and the Post Neonatal Mortality Rate (PNMR).
Methods and findings: Data for the present study were downloaded from two sources: infant and maternal mortality data were downloaded from the Global Burden of Disease 2013 Cause of Death Database and the Human Development Index (HDI) and Inequality-Adjusted Human Development Index (IHDI) data were downloaded from the United Nations Development Program (UNDP). Pearson correlation coefficients were estimated, following logarithmic transformations to the data, to examine the relationship between HDI and IHDI with MMR, IMR, ENMR, LNMR, and PNMR. Steiger's Z test for the equality of two dependent correlations was utilized in order to determine whether the HDI or IHDI was more strongly associated with the outcome variables. Lastly, we constructed OLS regression models in order to determine the predictive power of the HDI and IHDI in terms of the MMR, IMR, ENMR, LNMR, and PNMR. Maternal and infant mortality were both strongly and negatively correlated with both HDI and IHDI; however, Steiger's Z test for the equality of two dependent correlations revealed that IHDI was more strongly correlated than HDI with MMR (Z = 4.897, p < 0.001), IMR (Z = 2.524, p = 0.012), ENMR (Z = 2.936, p = 0.003), LNMR (Z = 2.272, p = 0.023), and PNMR (Z = 2.277, p = 0.023). Furthermore, side-by-side OLS regression models revealed that, when IHDI was used as the predictor variable instead of HDI, the R2 value was 0.053 higher for MMR, 0.025 higher for IMR, 0.038 higher for ENMR, 0.029 higher for LNMR, and 0.026 higher for PNMR.
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Conclusions: Even when both the HDI and the IHDI correlate with the infant and maternal mortality rates, the IHDI is a better predictor for these two health indicators. Therefore, these results add more evidence that inequality is playing an important role in determining the health status of various populations in the world and more efforts should be put into programs to fight inequality.
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Machine predictors are bound to improve. Blackman hopes to host a machine competition next year, encouraging others to work off {Marshall} and develop their own, better algorithms that can crack 70 percent. And in the long run, the real impact of this work may not have much at all to do with the Supreme Court. With an accurate algorithm in hand, predictions could be generated for the tens of thousands of cases argued every year in lower courts.
Climate change is a threat to human societies and natural ecosystems, yet public opinion research finds that public awareness and concern vary greatly. Here, using an unprecedented survey of 119 countries, we determine the relative influence of socio-demographic characteristics, geography, perceived well-being, and beliefs on public climate change awareness and risk perceptions at national scales. Worldwide, educational attainment is the single strongest predictor of climate change awareness. Understanding the anthropogenic cause of climate change is the strongest predictor of climate change risk perceptions, particularly in Latin America and Europe, whereas perception of local temperature change is the strongest predictor in many African and Asian countries. However, other key factors associated with public awareness and risk perceptions highlight the need to develop tailored climate communication strategies for individual nations. The results suggest that improving basic education, climate literacy, and public understanding of the local dimensions of climate change are vital to public engagement and support for climate action.
It's fun to conflate sports and politics, correlation with causation, especially during a divisive election season. But it's incorrect, and scary. Here at Forbes we like to hope that our nation's future, access to the nuclear codes, the choice for leader of the free world isn't resting in the arm of the 9th inning closer tonight at the end of a long MLB season, or Washington DC's quarterbacks (this is a team that had multiple starting QBs in 13 of the past 19 elections years since it moved to the nation's capital).
So what does it mean that these three tried and true methods disagree over the winner? That the best predictor of the next President of the United States is actual votes, on voting day, and a lot of them. So get out and vote. Not November 28. November 8. Find your polling place here.
Maternal and child mortality are devastating events for any community, which is why children and expectant mothers are priority populations for many public health intervention programs the world over. Maternal mortality is unacceptably high, with an estimated 800 women dying from pregnancy or childbirth-related complications around the world every day and almost all maternal deaths (99%) occur in developing countries, of which more than half occur in sub-Saharan Africa [1]. Sadly, the overwhelming majority of these deaths are needless and readily preventable. With regard to childhood mortality, an estimated 6.3 million children under the age of 5 died in 2013 alone, and like maternal mortality, most of these deaths were preventable [2].
To the extent that the infant and maternal mortality variables were not normally distributed according to Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for normality, transformations were applied to the data in an attempt to achieve normality. A natural log transformation was applied to the MMR, IMR, ENMR, LNMR, and the PNMR variables. Therefore, the regression equation used to model the aforementioned variables took the following form:Further testing with the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test revealed that, even after data transformation, the data failed to reach normality. While analysis of histogram outputs revealed that each variable approached normality following transformation, we elected to take supplementary precautions in handling the data. Specifically, correlation coefficients and beta coefficients were estimated with bootstrapped (1,000 resamples) 95 percent bias corrected confidence intervals. We also downloaded polygon feature data for a map of the world [20] and utilized ESRI ArcGIS version 10.0 [21] to project maps with the following layers: MMR, IMR, HDI, and IHDI.
The worldwide MMR in 2013 was 209.1 per 100,000 live births; however, this rate was not equally distributed around the world (Fig 3). The global IMR (under 5 years) in 2013 was 44.0 per 1,000 live births from 2.4 per 1,000 live births in Iceland to 152.5 per 1,000 live births in Guinea-Bissau (Fig 4). Figs 5 and 6 show how the IMR and MMR decrease as human development increases.
Simple OLS regression models showed that IHDI was a better predictor of infant and maternal mortality than HDI. In Table 2, side-by-side regression models are shown for MMR, IMR, ENMR, LNMR, and PNMR with HDI and IHDI as predictor variables. In each case, the variance explained in the dependent variable by the predictor variable was greater for the IHDI. Specifically, when IHDI was used as the predictor variable instead of HDI, the R2 value was 0.053 higher for MMR, 0.025 higher for IMR, 0.038 higher for ENMR, 0.029 higher for LNMR, and 0.026 higher for PNMR.
In the final analysis, the results of the present study supported our hypothesis: that even when both the HDI and the IHDI correlate with the infant and maternal mortality rates, the IHDI is a better predictor for these two health indicators. Pregnant women and children continue to be priority populations for many countries, and while direct intervention programs to address morbidity and mortality issues among these groups are prudent, social programs that address inequalities in education, income, access to healthcare resources and related factors are imperative and of equal importance in reducing mortality among these populations in the medium to long term especially, but also in the short term.
Scientists from around the world serve as part of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). These scientists have found that from 1900-2020, the world's surface air temperature increased an average of 1.1 Celsius (nearly 2F) due to burning fossil fuels that releases carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. This may not sound like very much change, but this warming is unprecedented in over 2000 years of records. Even one degree can impact the planet in many ways. Climate models predict that Earth's global average temperature will rise an additional 4 C (7.2 F) during the 21st Century if greenhouse gas levels continue to rise at present levels. Without swift action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, models project that holding global average temperatures to within a 1.5-2.0C (2.7-3.6F) increase may no longer be possible. 6190a8d2fd
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