I am an economist at the International Monetary Fund, where my work within the Monetary and Capital Markets Department focuses on central banking, macro-financial issues, and climate- and nature-related financial risks. Previously, I worked in the IMF's European Department and IMF Europe Office, where my responsibilities included surveillance on the euro area, France,  Malta, and Spain, as well as IMF engagement with the OECD, the ECB, and the European Commission. Before that, I worked on the euro area at Roubini Global Economics in London. My work has been covered by media outlets such as Bloomberg News, the Financial Times and Reuters.

IMF country/policy experience

Algeria,  Barbados, Côte d'Ivoire, Euro Area, France, Malta, Pacific Island Countries, Spain, Togo

Research interests

Macro-finance, monetary policy, climate- and  nature-related financial risks

Publications

Integrating Climate Change into Macroeconomic Analysis: A Review of Impact Channels, Data, Models, and Scenarios

IMF Working Paper, 2025

with Pritha Mitra and others (all IMF)

Climate change poses significant and diverse impacts on countries’ macroeconomic and financial stability, resulting in complex macro-critical policy challenges. Consequently, where significant, country-level macroeconomic analysis may need to integrate climate change-related impacts and policies. This paper reviews (i) climate change and related policies’ channels of impact on the real, fiscal, external, monetary, and financial sectors over various time horizons and (ii) corresponding data sources, models, and climate scenarios that could be applied in assessing the impact of physical climate risks as well as adaptation, transition, and mitigation policies. The paper concludes with considerations for future work.

Embedded in Nature: Nature-Related Economic and Financial Risks and Policy Considerations

IMF Staff Climate Note, 2024

with Charlotte Gardes-Landolfini (IMF), Jamie Fraser (IMF), Mariza Montes de Oca Leon (IMF), and Bella Yao (IMF)

Media coverage: Le Monde

The economy is embedded in, and dependent on, nature. Yet economic activity is degrading nature at an unprecedented pace. Interacting with climate change, nature loss and transformation generates significant threats to the global economy and financial system. However, work on the implications of nature-related risks for macroeconomic and financial sector policies remains at an early stage. This note seeks to contribute to this emerging policy space in three main ways: (i) it proposes a conceptual framework for understanding nature-related risks by mapping out macroeconomic transmission channels, emphasizing their impact on the economy and financial systems through “double materiality;” (ii) it conducts empirical analysis, finding that nearly 38 percent of bank loans of the 100 largest global banks are to harmful subsidies-dependent sectors and 44 percent are exposed to conservation areas under the Global Biodiversity Framework, and that industries most exposed to nature degradation are not well prepared to manage these risks; and (iii) it discusses takeaways for macroeconomic and financial sector policies and frameworks.

Three tales of central banking and financial supervision for the ecological transition

WIREs Climate Change, 2024

with Mathilde Salin (Banque de France) and Romain Svartzman (Banque de France)

The academic literature and policy discussions on the role that central banks and financial supervisors (CBFS) should play in the ecological transition, almost nonexistent five years ago, have since grown at an impressive pace. This has resulted in a wide range of proposals that often generate debates and even misunderstandings, for lack of a coherent analytical framework. Against this backdrop, this article provides a comprehensive overview of the different theoretical backgrounds and worldviews that inform existing proposals, and discusses the challenges and debates they generate when assessed from other perspectives. We identify three main approaches, or three “tales” of central banking and financial supervision in the face of ecological threats: (i) one that argues that CBFS should focus on assessing the (so-called “physical” and “transition”) risks that environmental issues pose to price and/or financial stability; (ii) one that places great emphasis on the ability of CBFS to help trigger systemic change, and thereby promotes proactive actions by CBFS to steer financial markets toward greening their activity beyond a risk-based approach; (iii) one that sees CBFS transformation as necessary but part of broader institutional change that they cannot deliver on their own, thereby requiring an evolutionary perspective. Through this comprehensive literature review, this article seeks to provide a coherent framework through which future academic contributions and policy proposals can be better understood and assessed.

Recommendations toward the development of scenarios for assessing nature-related economic and financial risks

Contributing author to NGFS Technical Document, 2023

Media coverage: Responsible Investor, Regulation Asia

Energy Transition and Geoeconomic Fragmentation: Implications for Climate Scenario Design

IMF Staff Climate Note, 2023

with Charlotte Gardes-Landolfini (IMF), Pierpaolo Grippa (IMF), and Sha Yu (IMF)

Media coverage: Reuters, Alternatives Economiques

The transition to a low-carbon economy, which is needed to mitigate climate change and meet the Paris Agreement temperature goals, has been affected by the supply chain and energy supply disruptions that originated during the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the subsequent energy crisis and exacerbation of geopolitical tensions. These developments, and the broader context of the ongoing “polycrisis,” can affect future decarbonization scenarios. This reflects three main factors: (1) pullbacks in climate mitigation policies and increased carbon lock-in in fossil fuel infrastructure and policymaking; (2) the decreasing likelihood of continuous cost reduction in renewable energy technologies; and (3) the likely intensification of macroeconomic shocks amid increasing geoeconomic fragmentation, and the associated policy responses. In this context, the note assesses the implications of the polycrisis for hypothetical scenarios used to assess climate-related financial risks. Following an analysis of the channels through which these effects are likely to materialize over short- and long-term horizons and some policy implications, the note proposes potential adjustments to the design of the climate scenarios used by financial institutions, central banks, and financial sector supervisors and regulators within their risk management frameworks.

Cross-Border Risks of a Global Economy in Mid-Transition

IMF Working Paper, 2023

with Etienne Espagne (World Bank), Jean-François Mercure (World Bank), Romain Svartzman (Banque de France), Ulrich Volz (SOAS, LSE), Hector Pollitt (World Bank), Gregor Semieniuk (World Bank), and Emanuele Campiglio (University of Bologna, LSE)

Media coverage: The Polycrisis; Phenomenal World (transcript)

This paper analyzes the cross-border risks that could result from a decarbonization of the world economy. We develop a typology of cross-border risks and their respective channels. Our qualitative and quantitative scenario analysis suggests that the mid-transition – a period during which fossil-fuel and low-carbon energy systems co-exist and transform at a rapid pace – could have profound stability and resilience implications for global trade and the international financial system.

Contending views on the role of central banks in the age of climate change: a review of the literature

with Mathilde Salin (Banque de France) and Romain Svartzman (Banque de France)

In The Future of Central Banking: The Elgar Series on Central Banking and Monetary Policy,  Edward Elgar Publishing (S. Kappes, L.-P. Rochon and G. Vallet, eds.), 2022

Central banks, part of academia and civil society organizations increasingly acknowledge that climate change poses significant threats to monetary and financial stability. However, their theoretical frameworks and ensuing proposals are often at odds with each other. The wide range of proposals has resulted in a rapidly growing yet difficult-to-digest literature, especially in the post-Global Financial Crisis context, in which central banks’ practices are being reshaped independently of climate change. In this context, the goal of this chapter is to provide a comprehensive overview of the literature on the role of central banks in the face of ecological challenges, in particular climate change. We identify four contending views that emphasize respectively: (i) the relative irrelevance of central banks’ actions with regard to ecological issues; (ii) their ability to act within their mandates of price and financial stability; (iii) the proactive stance they could take to steer the economy toward low-carbon activities (and potentially other ecologically-related goals); (iv) an evolutionary view through which the relevance of central banks’ actions can only be understood in the light of broader institutional transformations. We assess these four views by discussing the respective theoretical frameworks that underpin them and the main proposals that emanate from them, as well as the debates to which they have led. Through this comprehensive literature review, the chapter aims to provide insights into possible futures of central banking in the age of climate change and other ecological challenges, without advocating for any avenue in particular. 

Mobilizing Private Climate Financing in Emerging Market and Developing Economies

with Ananthakrisnan Prasad (IMF), Elena Loukoianova (IMF), and Alan Feng (IMF)

IMF Staff Climate Note, 2022

IMF Blog by Kristalina Georgieva (IMF Managing Director) and Tobias Adrian (IMF Financial Counsellor)

Global investment to achieve the Paris Agreement’s temperature and adaptation goals requires immediate actions—first and foremost—on climate policies. Policies should be accompanied by commensurate financing flows to close the large financing gap globally, and in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) in particular. This note discusses potential ways to mobilize domestic and foreign private sector capital in climate finance, as a complement to climate-related policies, by mitigating relevant risks and constraints through public-private partnerships involving multilateral, regional, and national development banks. It also overviews the role the IMF can play in the process.

Central banking and supervision in the biosphere: an agenda for action on biodiversity loss, financial risk and system stability

contributing author to NGFS-INSPIRE report, 2022

Media coverage: Bloomberg, Reuters, The Banker

IMF Spain 2021 Article IV Selected Issues: Climate Change Mitigation Policies in Spain

with Nicolas Arregui (IMF)

IMF Country Report, 2022

Climate Change

with Amar Bhattacharya (Brookings), Maksym Ivanyna (IMF) and Nicholas Stern (LSE)

In How to Achieve Inclusive Growth, Oxford University Press (V. Cerra, B. Eichengreen, A. El-Ganainy and M. Schindler, eds.), 2022

Media coverage: Alternatives Economiques

Climate Action to Unlock the Inclusive Growth Story of the 21st Century

with Amar Bhattacharya (Brookings), Maksym Ivanyna (IMF) and Nicholas Stern (LSE)

IMF Working Paper, 2021

Coverage: Finance & Development, The Green Swan Conference

Climate change is a major threat to the sustainability and inclusiveness of our societies, and to the planet’s habitability. A just transition to a low-carbon economy is the only viable way forward. This paper reviews the climate change challenge. It stresses the criticality of systems changes (energy, transport, urban, land use, water) in a climate-challenged world, and the importance of infrastructure investment geared toward such systems changes. The key policies to enable the transition are: public spending on and investment frameworks for sustainable infrastructure, pricing carbon, regulations, promoting sustainable use of natural resources, scaling up and aligning finance with climate objectives, low-carbon industrial and innovation policies, building resilience and adaptation, better measurement of well-being and sustainability, and providing information and education on climate risks. Implemented well, climate action would unlock the inclusive growth story of the 21st century, making our societies more sustainable, inclusive, and prosperous.

What Justifies Sustainable Finance Measures? Financial-economic interactions and possible implications for policymakers

with Romain Svartzman (Banque de France)

CESifo Forum, 2021

Media coverage: Bloomberg, Responsible Investor

With scientists warning of potentially catastrophic climate outcomes in the future if rapid decarbonization of the global economy does not occur, climate change looms increasingly large on the policy agenda. Against this backdrop, work on climate-related financial risks and sustainable finance measures has been intensifying. This article provides an overview of the justifications for sustainable finance measures that have been put forth to date, as well as theoretical and practical challenges associated with these rationales and proposals to overcome these challenges—in particular, a new paradigmatic approach through the concept of ‘double materiality.’ The article also takes stock of two ongoing debates that are likely to shape future policy discussions: the role of policy coordination and potential implications for central banks, and the relevance of ecological risks beyond climate-related financial risks.

Macroeconomic and Financial Policies for Climate Change Mitigation: A Review of the Literature

with Signe Krogstrup  (Danmarks Nationalbank)

IMF Working Paper, 2019

IMF Blog

Danmarks Nationalbank Working Paper

Media coverage: FT Alphaville, Central Banking, London Review of Books, Financial Times (Gillian Tett), Capital

Climate change is one of the greatest challenges of this century. Mitigation requires a large-scale transition to a low-carbon economy. This paper provides an overview of the rapidly growing literature on the role of macroeconomic and financial policy tools in enabling this transition. The literature provides a menu of policy tools for mitigation. A key conclusion is that fiscal tools are first in line and central, but can and may need to be complemented by financial and monetary policy instruments. Some tools and policies raise unanswered questions about policy tool assignment and mandates, which we describe. The literature is scarce, however, on the most effective policy mix and the role of mitigation tools and goals in the overall policy framework.

October 2019 Fiscal Monitor, Online Annex 1.12: "Literature Review of Possible Financial Policies to Reinforce Mitigation Incentives,"

IMF Fiscal Monitor: How to Mitigate Climate Change, 2019 (link)

The Synchronization of Business Cycles and Financial Cycles in the Euro Area

International Journal of Central Banking, 2019

Using a frequency-based filter, I document the existence of a euro area financial cycle and high- and low-amplitude national financial cycles. Applying concordance and similarity analysis to business and financial cycles, I provide evidence of five empirical regularities: (i) the aggregate euro area credit-to-GDP ratio behaved procyclically in the years preceding euro area recessions; (ii) financial cycles are less synchronized than business cycles; (iii) business cycle synchronization has increased while financial cycle synchronization has decreased; (iv) financial cycle de-synchronization was more pronounced between high-amplitude and low-amplitude countries, especially Germany; (v) high-amplitude countries and Germany experienced divergent leverage dynamics after 2002.  The evidence that the euro area leverage cycle behaves procyclically and that large and persistent financial cycle discrepancies can emerge between different regions within the monetary union suggests that monetary and macroprudential policies should be coordinated, and that macroprudential policies should be countercyclical and country specific.

Economic Convergence in the Euro Area: Coming Together or Drifting Apart?

with Jeffrey Franks (IMF), Bergljot Barkbu (IMF), Rodolphe Blavy (IMF) and Hanni Schoelermann (ECB)

IMF Working Paper, 2018

Media coverage: Financial Times (Martin Sandbu), Central Banking

We examine economic convergence among euro area countries on multiple dimensions. While there was nominal convergence of inflation and interest rates, real convergence of per capita income levels has not occurred among the original euro area members since the advent of the common currency. Income convergence stagnated in the early years of the common currency and has reversed in the wake of the global economic crisis. New euro area members, in contrast, have seen real income convergence. Business cycles became more synchronized, but the amplitude of those cycles diverged. Financial cycles showed a similar pattern: sychronizing more over time, but with divergent amplitudes. Income convergence requires reforms boosting productivity growth in lagging countries, while cyclical and financial convergence can be enhanced by measures to improve national and euro area fiscal policies, together with steps to deepen the single market.

Transforming the Growth Regime (in French)  

under the direction of Michel Aglietta (CEPII)

Institut Caisse des Dépôts et Consignations pour la Recherche, 2018

Media coverage: Les Échos

Why and how to transform the current growth regime? This report answers this fundamental question through multidisciplinary collaboration. The report mobilizes economic history to propose an economic theory of growth as an alternative to orthodox theory. The key hypothesis is that the financial cycle is at the heart of the economic dynamics of the current growth regime. The report discusses the relationship between, on the one hand, the financial cycle, growth and inflation; and, on the other hand, corporate governance and agent behavior. It concludes that the current regime is evolving on a trajectory that is not sustainable in the face of the challenges of the 21st century, and proposes foundations for a new inclusive and sustainable growth regime.

"Labor and Product Market Reforms in Advanced Economies: Fiscal Costs, Gains and Support― Case Studies of Finland, Germany, Ireland, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom"

with Angana Banerji (IMF), Vizhdan Boranova (IMF), Christian Ebeke (IMF), Olena Ftomova (IMF) and Nan Geng (IMF)

IMF Staff Discussion Note, 2017

IMF Blog

"The Long and Winding Road to a Eurozone Banking Union"

with Nouriel Roubini (NYU)

Roubini Global Economics - Economic Research, 2013

"The European Central Bank of Japan? Disinflation is Looming"

with Christian Odendahl (Centre for European Reform) 

Roubini Global Economics - Economic Research, 2013

Book Reviews

Review of Illusion financière, by Gaël Giraud (in French)

La Vie des Idées, 2015

For Gaël Giraud, financial excesses are at the root of the euro area crisis and the growing instability of globalized finance since the 1980s. The ecological transition cannot be driven by private finance but must be driven by a reform of the ECB and European governance.

The views expressed on this site are personal and should not be attributed to the IMF, its Executive Board, or its management.