Wisconsin Elects
COMING SOON
Live Results for the 2026 Wisconsin State Legislative Elections
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With less than three weeks until the 2026 midterm elections, Wisconsin is facing a potentially seismic change. After eight years of Republican control under Scott Walker and another eight years of divided control between Democratic Governor Tony Evers and the Republican State Legislature, everything is up for grabs, and Democrats have a shot at unified control of state government in sixteen years. Plenty of outlets will be covering the Gubernatorial race, but detailed results for state legislative races can be harder to come across.
Throughout election night, I will be updating this website with maps of the 16 Assembly Districts and 5 Senate Districts that I consider to be somewhat competitive. Rather than just showing the results by county like most outlets, which is not very helpful when each race spans just one or a few counties, I have my mapping software ready to quickly map the results by voting precinct and get a better idea of the state of the race as it happens. Hopefully, this will be a valuable resource to those who care about the future of Wisconsin who want to follow the race closely.
Caveat One: I cannot promise that this will not break in the heat of the moment, but hours of testing have made the process of getting results from PDF tables on county websites to a live map quite fast. Along with leaving an update message each time a new batch of maps comes in, I will leave a disclaimer if any errors put the updates on hold.
Caveat Two: Some cities in Wisconsin, most notably Milwaukee, centrally count all early votes. This means that some precincts will have "partial" results reported, with either the election day or early votes coming in first. I do not plan on counting partial results, as they skew the projection, and it is far more difficult to know what the partisan breakdown of early versus election day votes will look like. These partial results will still show up like usual at other election reporting outlets.
The State Assembly
Pre-Election Night Rating: Lean Democratic
After Wisconsin's gerrymandered state legislative maps were struck down and redrawn for 2024, Democrats had their first fair shot at winning control of the State Assembly since 2010. While Kamala Harris would have only carried a majority in 35 of 99 districts under the old map, 49 of 99 districts voted for her in 2024, corresponding with her narrow loss. Assembly Democrats only gained 10 seats by narrowly losing five of those Harris-voting districts and picking up one Trump-voting district.
Republicans in the State Assembly still have a reduced 54-45 majority, but as Democrats ride high on backlash to the Trump administration, they are looking to flip five more seats and control the State Assembly. The State Assembly is the last chamber Republicans expect to hold if they lose the Governorship and State Senate. This is the final step in Democrats' search for their first trifecta in sixteen years.
Key Battlegrounds
Republicans won Assembly Districts 88, 61, 53, 51, and 21 by less than 4% in 2024. In Green Bay (88), Milwaukee County (21/61), Neenah/Menasha (53), and Southwest Wisconsin (51), Democrats need to flip all five to control the State Assembly.
Ruby Red Reaches
Republicans won these five Assembly Districts by 6-16% in 2024. Pat Snyder from Wausau is the most vulnerable in AD85. Breaking through in bright red AD82 or AD22 in Waukesha and Ozaukee Counties would be a fantastic night for Democrats.
Marginal Democrats
Democrats won Assembly Districts 94, 95, 91, 89, 43, and 26 by less than 4% in 2024. If they lose any of these seats (particularly AD94, which narrowly voted for President Trump in 2024), they will need to compensate for it by flipping a reach.
The State Senate
Pre-Election Night Rating: Likely Democratic
While the new Wisconsin Assembly map is still mildly favorable towards Republicans, the Wisconsin Senate map is quite advantageous to Democrats. Senators are elected to four-year terms, so of the eight Senators in swing districts, half are elected during presidential elections, while the other half are elected during midterm elections. While Democrats do have to win at least seven of these swing seats to control the State Senate, all eight voted for Kamala Harris in 2024 by 1-6%, and they swept all four in 2024. This leaves them with a relatively easy job going in 2026. Win three of four seats that already rejected President Trump at his peak popularity. A sweep would flip Republicans' 18-15 majority into a Democratic 18-15 majority.
Key Battlegrounds
Democrats already hold SD 31, and have three targets in Senate Districts 5, 17, and 21, which are all being elected in their current configurations under the new state legislative maps for the first time. They are favored to win all four, but thanks to a 2024 sweep, they can come up short once and still take a narrow 17-16 majority.
The Northern Wild Card
Democrats would have no business competing in rural SD25 in most years, but the liberal outposts of Ashland and Superior may join forces with enough disenchanted Trump voters to break through if Democrats have an incredibly strong showing.
by Joshua Rifelj
Page updated
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