Congratulations to the winners of 17WCEE blind prediction contest on tsunami inundation and impact!

Click here to see the results.

Welcome to the Blind Prediction Contest on Tsunami Inundation and Impact!

It is our pleasure to announce the blind prediction contest on tsunami inundation and impact, as a special event of 17WCEE. This is the first blind prediction contest that have been held in WCEE. The contest is open to both individuals and teams from the practicing engineering community and the academic and research community (including students).

The hydraulic experiment was conducted by Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry (CRIEPI, Japan) with supports of Chuo University, and the data will not have been published until 17WCEE. In the experiment, a tsunami wave passes a seaside area on which several buildings and tanks are installed, and tsunami wave pressures acting on buildings and tanks, water depths, and velocities are measured. Contestants are requested to predict tsunami inundations and pressures. The organizer will quantify accuracies of submittal predictions, and determine a winner.

We hope that scientific or engineering teams or individuals who are eager to develop their experiences and skills on evaluations of tsunami impacts, attend the blind prediction contest and this opportunity will contribute to their future technology developments.

This is the challenge to the humankind of all over the world!!

7. Registration

Please use the following form for your registration.

https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSf3_JXm9gi6VyNITVzIh0lK6XOr1Y85ATGMNVmcwMWGSll6OQ/viewform?usp=sf_link

8. Entry qualifications

In this contest, there are the following two entry qualifications.

1. Regular participants; They have to pay the 17WCEE registration fee.

2. Young challenging participants (students or persons within 5 years of obtaining their PhD); They don’t have to pay the 17WCEE registration fee.

If you are a student or a person with 5 years of obtaining your PhD, you can participate in the blind contest as young challenging participants without paying the registration fee of the 17WCEE. Young challenging participants can't attend to the 17WCEE if the registration fee of 17WCEE was not paid. However, you presented a good prediction result in the blind contest and you got the qualification to receive the award, you can give the oral presentation of your calculation results at the "blind contest session" at 17WCEE.

9. Important Dates

December 9, 2019 : Start of registration of the blind prediction contest

* Note that Early Bird Registration Deadline of 17WCEE is December 31, 2019!

http://www.17wcee.jp/registration.html

February 28, 2020 : Close of registration of the blind prediction contest

March 13, 2020 : Close of registration of the blind prediction contest (extended)

May 11, 2020 : Deadline for submittal of prediction results

September 12, 2020 : Deadline for submittal of prediction results (extended)

September 28, 2020 : Deadline for submittal of prediction results (extended)

October 5, 2020 : Deadline for submittal of prediction results (extended)

July 6, 2020 : Notifications to winners

September 2020 : Announcement of the winners at 17WCEE

December 18, 2020 : Announcement of the winners on the website

10. Contact information to the Blind Prediction Contest Organizer:

Chair; Dr. Taro Arikawa, Professor, Chuo University, taro.arikawa.38d[at]g.chuo-u.ac.jp

Co-Chair; Dr. Naoto Kihara, Unit Leader, Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, kihara[at]criepi.denken.or.jp

Secretariat; Dr. Masashi Watanabe, Assistant Professor, Chuo University, watanabe.07w[at]g.chuo-u.ac.jp

Secretariat; Dr. Chiaki Tsurudome, Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, tsurudome3827@criepi.denken.or.jp

11. Important notice:

・Dec 12, 2019: Velocimeters used for the measurement of velocities on the seaside area were changed to electromagnetic velocimeters from ADV. Furthermore, their measured heights were also changed from 0.03 m to 0.015 m.

・Dec. 16, 2019: The registration had been extended to February 28, 2020.

・Feb. 10, 2020: Time series of velocities and the paddle position of the piston-type wave generator have been requested by some contestants since those data are needed when Lagrangian approaches are adopted in evaluations. Thus, digital data of velocities in x-direction at WG1 and WG2 and the paddle position were additionally provided. Please see the detailed in the upper file.

・Feb. 21, 2020: The Closing date of registration of the blind prediction contest was extended to March 13, 2020. The Deadline for submittal of prediction results was also extended to June 12, 2020.

・Mar. 1, 2020: The entry qualifications for the blind contest are revised. Please see 8. Entry qualifications.

・Mar. 30, 2020: The topography data was revised because there were errors of topography information. Please see 1. Experiment.

・Apr. 22, 2020: The schedule of the blind contest was changed due to pandemic of COVID-19.

・May 26, 2020: There are some errors in the "spreadsheet". We revised the following errors in the sheet, and uploaded the new version in ”5. Submittals".

(1)There were no cells to write "time".

(2)There were cells for the "Maximum water level at WG9 [m] =", although WG9 did not exist in the experiments.

(3)The titles of pressures for P1-1 were written as "Pressure at z=0.001m", although the correct title is "Pressure at z=0.010m".

・Jul. 20, 2020: The measurement position of the velocity at WG2, which had been provided for setting tsunami conditions, was not correct. The velocity was measured at different WG’s position, thus the appropriate data was uploaded.

・Jul. 20, 2020: The equation used for judgement of a winner was revised. Please see 3. Rules of the contest.

・Aug. 3, 2020: The sample of technical report was uploaded. Please see 5. Submittals.

・Sep. 4, 2020: Deadline for submittal of prediction results was extended to Sep. 28, 2020.

・Sep. 15, 2020: The confirmation form was unloaded. Please see 5. Submittals.

・Sep. 23, 2020: Deadline for submittal of prediction results was extended to Oct. 5, 2020.

・Dec. 18, 2020: Winner of the blind contest was determined.

12. Q&A:

Q: Can you provide topography data for calculation? (Feb. 2, 2020)

A: We don't distribute topography or bathymetry data of wave flume. Please make the data of topography and bathymetry from Fig.1 in the detail of the experiment(https://drive.google.com/file/d/1-3PtpTCzHYV9bui2aaBgHQHksO39IUhb/view).

Q: Time series of velocities and the paddle position of the piston-type wave generator are needed for setting tsunami conditions in Lagrangian approach, are those data provided? (Feb. 14, 2020)

A: Yes. Digital data of velocities in x-direction at WG1 and WG2 and the paddle position are additionally provided.

Q: Predicted tsunami arrival time at WG1 was significantly different from those of the measurement. In our simulations, the tsunami condition was set by the paddle position. Is the time-axis of paddle position correct? (Mar. 6, 2020)

A: The time-axis of the provided data of the paddle position are not synchronized with those of measurements of water levels, velocities, inundation depth, and pressures, as written in the explanation file of the provided data.

The times of measured data of the water levels and velocities are the base time of the contest. Thus, contestants who use the data of paddle position to set tsunami conditions must adjust the time-axis of the submittals of their simulation results to the time axis of the measured data of the water levels and velocities at WG1 and WG2.

Q: Is the paddle position correct? (Mar. 24, 2020 new!)

A: The position of the wave generator, i.e., paddle position, shown in Fig. 1 in the file is the neutral position of the paddle. The paddle was moved backward by 1.1 m before the experiments, and the position was kept till the experiments started. And, by moving the paddle forward by the distance described in the paddle position file (4. Provided data), the tsunami was generated. The paddle positions in the provided data were revised to x-coordinate values.