Uncertainty and Risk
A Workshop Commemorating the Centenary of Publication of
Frank H. Knight’s "Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit" and
John M. Keynes’ "A Treatise on Probability"
March 17-19, 2021 - Virtual
Frank H. Knight
Photo: University of Chicago Photographic Archive, apf1-03513, Special Collections Research Center.
Photo: Wikimedia commons
The year 2021 marks the centenary of two monumental publications in economics and probability theory, namely "Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit" by Frank Hyneman Knight and "A Treatise on Probability" by John Maynard Keynes. In "Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit", Knight put forward the vital difference between risk, where empirical evaluation of unknown outcomes can still be applicable, and uncertainty, where no quantified measurement is valid but subjective estimate. In "A Treatise on Probability", Keynes argued that the concept of probability should be about the logical implication from premises to hypotheses, in contrast to the classical quantified perspective of probability. The fundamental uncertainty proposed in both works has then deeply influenced the development of economic and probability theory in the past century and it still resonates with our lives today, considering the ups and downs that the world economy is experiencing. This workshop is a tribute to their invaluable legacy.
Francesca Biagini - Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich
Sara Biagini - LUISS Guido Carli
Simon Blackburn - Trinity College, Cambridge
Paul Embrechts - ETH Zurich
Ross Emmett - Arizona State University
Itzhak Gilboa - HEC Paris
Lars Hansen - University of Chicago
Fabio Maccheroni - Bocconi University
Massimo Marinacci - Bocconi University
Marcel Nutz - Columbia University
Shige Peng - Shandong University
Frank Riedel - Bielefeld University