Uncertainty and Risk

A Workshop Commemorating the Centenary of Publication of

Frank H. Knight’s "Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit" and

John M. Keynes’ "A Treatise on Probability"

March 17-19, 2021 - Virtual

Frank H. Knight

Photo: University of Chicago Photographic Archive, apf1-03513, Special Collections Research Center.

John M. Keynes

Photo: Wikimedia commons


The year 2021 marks the centenary of two monumental publications in economics and probability theory, namely "Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit" by Frank Hyneman Knight and "A Treatise on Probability" by John Maynard Keynes. In "Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit", Knight put forward the vital difference between risk, where empirical evaluation of unknown outcomes can still be applicable, and uncertainty, where no quantified measurement is valid but subjective estimate. In "A Treatise on Probability", Keynes argued that the concept of probability should be about the logical implication from premises to hypotheses, in contrast to the classical quantified perspective of probability. The fundamental uncertainty proposed in both works has then deeply influenced the development of economic and probability theory in the past century and it still resonates with our lives today, considering the ups and downs that the world economy is experiencing. This workshop is a tribute to their invaluable legacy.


Organizers: Sam Cohen, Lars Hansen, Tomasz R. Bielecki, Igor Cialenco, Mike Tehranchi and Haoyang Cao

Special thanks to The Alan Turing Institute for the assistance in hosting this event.