Troy Davig
Email: tdavig@gmail.com
Published Papers
Communicating Monetary Policy Rules (with Andrew Foerster). European Economic Review 151, 2023.
Recession Forecasting Using Bayesian Classification, International Journal of Forecasting 35(3), 2019.
Uncertainty and Fiscal Cliffs (with Andrew Foerster). Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 51(7), 2019.
Discussion of ``Tracking Monetary-Fiscal Interactions Across Time and Space',' International Journal of Central Banking, June 2018, Working version.
Phillips Curve Instability and Optimal Monetary Policy, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 48(1), 2016. Working paper.
Is Optimal Monetary Policy Always Optimal? (with Refet S. Gurkaynak), International Journal of Central Banking 11(1): 353-384, 2015. Working paper.
Monetary Policy Regime Shifts and Inflation Persistence (with Taeyoung Doh), The Review of Economics and Statistics 96(5): 862-875, 2014.
Adaptive Learning in Regime-Switching Models (with William Branch and Bruce McGough), Macroeconomic Dynamics 17(5): 998-1022, 2013.
Temporarily Unstable Government Debt and Inflation (with Eric Leeper), International Monetary Fund Economic Review 59: 233-270, 2011. Working paper.
Decomposing the Declining Volatility of Long-Term Inflation Expectations (with Todd Clark), Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 35(7): 981-999, 2011.
Inflation and the Fiscal Limit (with Eric Leeper and Todd Walker), European Economic Review 55(1): 31-47, 2011.
Monetary-Fiscal Interactions and Fiscal Stimulus (with Eric Leeper), European Economic Review 55(2): 211-227, 2011.
Unfunded Liabilities and Uncertain Fiscal Financing, (with Eric Leeper and Todd Walker), Journal of Monetary Economics 57(5): 600-619, 2010.
Generalizing the Taylor Principle: Reply (with Eric Leeper), American Economic Review 100(1): 618-624, 2010.
Monetary-Fiscal Policy Interactions Under Implementable Monetary Policy Rules (with William A. Branch and Bruce McGough), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 40(5), 2008.
Endogenous Monetary Policy Regime Change (with Eric Leeper), NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2006 (Cambridge: MIT Press): 345-377.
Generalizing the Taylor Principle (with Eric Leeper), American Economic Review 97(3): 607-635, 2007.
Monetary and Fiscal Policy Switching, (with Eric Leeper and Hess Chung), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 39(4): 809-842, 2007.
Change-Points in U.S. Business Cycle Durations, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics 11(2), 2007.
Fluctuating Macro Policies and the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level (with Eric Leeper), NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2006, ed. D. Acemoglu, K. Rogoff, and M. Woodford. Volume 21: 247-298.
State-Dependent Stock Market Reactions to Monetary Policy (with Jeff Gerlach), International Journal of Central Banking 2(4): 65-83, 2006.
Periodically Expanding Discounted Debt: A Threat to Fiscal Policy Sustainability?, Journal of Applied Econometrics 20(7): 829-840, 2005.
Regime-Switching Debt and Taxation, Journal of Monetary Economics 51(4): 837-859, 2004.
Federal Reserve Publications
Forecasting the Stance of Monetary Policy Under Balance Sheet Adjustments (with A. Lee Smith), Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, The Macro Bulletin, May 2017.
Tracking Consumer Credit Trends (with Willem Xu), Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, The Macro Bulletin, August 2016.
Evaluating a Year of Oil Price Volatility (with Nida Cakir Melek, Jun Nie, A. Lee Smith and Didem Tuzeman), Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Review, Third Quarter 2015.
Bank Consolidation and Merger Activity Following the Crisis (with Michal Kowalik, Charles S. Morris, Kristen Regehr), Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Review, First Quarter 2015.
Re-evaluating Labor Market Dynamics - An Introduction to the 2014 Economic Policy Symposium, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Symposium Proceedings, Jackson Hole, Wyo. August 2014.
Connecting ``the Dots": Disagreement in the Federal Open Market Committee (with Richard Crump, Stefano Eusepi, Emanuel Moench), Liberty Street Economics, September 2014.
The Wage Cycle and Shadow Labor Supply (with Jos\'e Mustre-del-R\'io), Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, The Macro Bulletin, August 2014.
Accounting for Changes in the U.S. Budget Deficit (with Michael Redmond), Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Review, Fourth Quarter 2014.
Consumer Debt Dynamics: An Update (with John Carter Braxton), Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City The Macro Bulletin, February 2014.
Global Dimensions of Unconventional Monetary Policy: An Introduction to the 2013 Economic Policy Symposium, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Symposium Proceedings, Jackson Hole, Wyo. August 2013.
The Shadow Labor Supply and Its Implications for the Unemployment Rate (with Jose Mustre-del-Rio), Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Review, Third Quarter 2013.
The Changing Policy Landscape - An Introduction to the 2012 Economic Policy Symposium, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Symposium Proceedings, Jackson Hole, Wyo. August 2012.
What is the Effect of Financial Stress on Economic Activity? (with Craig Hakkio), Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Review, Second Quarter 2010.
Detecting Recessions in the Great Moderation: A Real-Time Analysis, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Review, Fourth Quarter 2008.
Middle-Income Tax Rates: Trends and Prospects (with C. Alan Garner), Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Review, Fourth Quarter 2006.