Working Papers

"Forward Guidance, Monetary Policy Uncertainty, and the Term Premium"

(with Brent Bundick and A. Lee Smith)

Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City RWP 17-07, July 2017, updated Dec. 2019

Forward guidance about future monetary policy can lower term premia in bond markets, even without large-scale asset purchases.

Appendix

Federal Reserve Publications

"How Do FOMC Projections Affect Policy Uncertainty?"

(with Brent Bundick)

Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Economic Review 102(2), Second Quarter 2017

Measures of uncertainty fell after the FOMC began releasing its interest rate projections; however, uncertainty is significantly correlated with disagreement across participants’ projections.

"Examining the Recent Shift in State and Local Pension Plans to Alternative Investments"

(with Huixin Bi)

Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Macro Bulletin, Sept. 27, 2017

State and local pension plans are increasingly turning to alternative investments, but underfunding only partially explains this shift.

"Does the Recent Decline in Household Longer-Term Inflation Expectations Signal a Loss of Confidence in the FOMC?"

(with Brent Bundick, Emily Pollard, and A. Lee Smith)

Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Macro Bulletin, June 21, 2017

Households have lowered their longer-term inflation outlooks, but they appear confident in the FOMC’s ability to achieve stable prices.

"How Does a Rise in International Shipping Costs Affect US Inflation?"

(with Elizabeth M. Johnson, Nicholas Sly, and A. Lee Smith)

Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Macro Bulletin, Dec. 1, 2016

While international shipping costs are generally not included in import price indices, an increase in shipping costs still leads to a modest boost in core inflation after one year.