Transit Reality
Why Nashville Mayor Freddie O'Connell's transit proposal would be a disaster for taxpayers and low income commuters
1- An Expanded Bus System will NOT Reduce Traffic
Despite spending hundreds of billions of federal and state and local taxpayer dollars, mass transit ridership in the United States has been in a decades long decline.
In Nashville mass transit accounts for less than 1/4 of 1% of motorized passenger miles. The Census Bureau’s American Community Survey indicates only 1.5% of Nashville commuters use transit and that is probably an optimistic estimate. For the entire Metro area only 7/10 of 1% use transit.
In Nashville, the WeGo Star commuter train ridership has recently plummeted by 60%
and although WeGo bus ridership has recovered from the covid slump, it is still not even back to 2015 levels while driving has long since fully recovered.
To borrow a phrase from Mayor Freddie O'Connell, Nashvillians CHOOSE CARS when they want to Move!
There is no credible evidence that Nashvillians are going to abandon the privacy, convenience and safety of their cars and dramatically change their commute patterns and switch to slow, fixed route buses.
But even if by some miracle bus ridership doubled, it would make NO noticeable difference in traffic because transit is such a tiny portion of passenger miles.
Other cities have spent billions trying to get commuters to abandon their cars with no success. See two video news reports below and these two news links: Here and Here. There are MANY, MANY more examples.
Nashville can avoid this fate by NOT WASTING taxpayer money on this absurd plan.
2- The Crime and Personal Safety Problem will continue to push people away from buses and reduce ridership.
Mass Transit systems across the country are suffering from an epidemic of crime. Los Angeles recently declared a public safety state of emergency because of violence on the LACMTA. In Chicago the bus driver's union called for more security after a recent attack. In New York bus and subway crime are major problems. A recent attack on a Bronx bus is just one of many.
Nashville is no different. Violence on Nashville buses has been a consistent problem. Mayor O'Connell has made vague promises about more security but there is NO TRACK RECORD of reducing crime.
And, to make matters even worse, the Mayor's new proposal has two elements that will actually increase crime. 1-Mayor O'Connell's plan calls for greatly expanded hours. Some routes will be expanded to 24/7 making transit an even easier target for criminals during prime crime periods. Nashvillians are not going to risk their personal safety by taking a bus at 2:00AM. 2-The Mayor's plan also calls for free Fares for many. Other transit systems are moving AWAY from free fares precisely because they attract criminals.
Here is a more detailed listing of recent transit crime Reports in Nashville and Nationally:
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Transit Crime in Nashville
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June 12, 2024 - Woman charged for threatening security guard with a knife at Nashville bus station
June 5, 2024 - Girl strangled by grandfather at WeGo bus station, police say
https://www.wsmv.com/2024/06/05/girl-strangled-by-grandfather-wego-bus-station-police-say/
June 3, 2024 - Man followed, touched, exposed himself to woman at WeGo bus terminal, police say
May 30, 2024 - Man fighting for life in the hospital after he was stabbed at a WeGo bus station in Edgehill
May 24, 2024 - Man shot multiple times, teen arrested after shooting outside WeGo station
https://www.wsmv.com/2024/05/24/1-injured-suspect-custody-after-shooting-outside-wego-station/
May 20, 2024 - Nashville bus driver attacked by passenger with kitchen knife, police say
May 17, 2024 - Nashville Mayor requests review of WeGo safety after Thursday shooting
https://www.wsmv.com/2024/05/18/nashville-mayor-requests-review-wego-safety-after-thursday-shooting/
Jan 30, 2024 - WeGo Bus driver assaulted behind the wheel by passenger
https://www.newschannel5.com/news/wego-bus-driver-assaulted-behind-the-wheel-by-passenger
Aug 14, 2023 - WeGo increasing safety measures after student sexually attacked at bus station
Aug 23, 2022 - Man stole WeGo bus after threatening driver, Metro police say
April 16, 2016 - After Shooting At Downtown Bus Station, Nashville Riders Want More Security
https://wpln.org/post/after-shooting-at-downtown-bus-station-nashville-riders-want-more-security/
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Transit Crime Nationally
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AP - March 7, 2024 - Transit crime is back as a top concern in some US cities, and political leaders have taken notice
Denver June 7, 2024 - Denver RTD passengers being assaulted or threatened is a daily occurrence
https://www.denverpost.com/2024/06/07/rtd-assaults-violence-drugs-buses-trains-public-transit/
Los Angeles April 24, 2024 - Metro declares emergency over attacks on bus operators
New York May 17, 2024 - Man allegedly stabbed bus rider in the head, punched another in the face
Chicago April 24, 2024 - Video shows CTA bus driver being attacked; head of Chicago transit union worries about safety
https://www.cbsnews.com/chicago/news/video-chicago-cta-bus-driver-attacked/
3- The Mayor's plan is targeting low income Nashvillians in South Nashville and North Nashville. He is depending on low income riders to increase bus ridership. But, in fact, they are the very people who would benefit MOST from owning a car or taking Uber/Lyft or using on-demand micro-transit.
Let's be honest here. People in Belle Meade and Oak Hill and Weste Meade and Forrest Hills are NOT, repeat, NOT going to ride the bus to work. They may take the rare bus ride when WeGo offers free rides to a Taylor Swift concert or a soccer game but otherwise you will find middle income and affluent Nashvillians enjoying the privacy and convenience and safety of their own cars.
Is there an advantage for low income Nashvillians taking transit? NO, in fact, there is a huge disadvantage.
Transit offers much less access to jobs than a car. Data from the University of Minnesota Accessibility Observatory indicates the average resident of Nashville can reach 238,000 jobs in a 20-minute auto drive (pg 122) versus 2,068 jobs in a 20-minute transit trip (pg 65). If you want access to job opportunities in Nashville you must have a car.
Transit does a huge disservice to low-income workers by putting many jobs and economic opportunities out of their reach. Low-income Nashvillians should not be used as an excuse for spending more money on a slow, inefficient, fixed route bus system.
And another major problem with transit for low income commuters: every major study shows commutes by transit take TWICE as long as commuting by car. A recent Census report said: "The longest average travel times were associated with various forms of public transportation. For example, workers who traveled to work by bus had an average commute of 46.6 minutes."
Given the option, most bus riders would happily choose the convenience and safety and privacy of a personal car that affluent Nashvillians take for granted. A personal car would be a life changer for low income Nashvillians. We see lots written about the need for "affordable housing" but nothing is written about the even more pressing need for "affordable personal transportation."
4- Fixing Traffic congestion in Nashville can be accomplished without spending Billions in taxpayer money.
Traffic congestion in Nashville is moderate according to actual commuting data from the TOMTOM TRAFFIC INDEX Ranking for 2023 data (Go to this link and click on "Metro Area") Nashville ranked 42nd among large cities in North America in 2023. This is well below many cities which have large transit networks like New York and San Francisco and Los Angeles. This is ACTUAL REAL-TIME GPS data, not a measure of "stress" or "aggravation."
The main problem with traffic congestion occurs during morning and evening drive times. But, traffic congestion in Nashville can be improved in many ways that do not involve spending billions on an expanded bus network that will NOT reduce traffic. First and foremost, we don't need more empty buses clogging up the streets.
But the most effective action the Mayor can take is to use his considerable influence to require the large downtown corporate citizens like Amazon and Oracle and AllianceBernstein to stagger their start times and allow employees maximum flexibility to vary their work schedules to greatly ease congestion. These companies are always telling us what good "corporate citizens" they are but we need action, not PR spin.
5- We are on the brink of a transformational technology revolution in transit.
Waymo has autonomous vehicles already carrying fee paying passengers in Los Angeles and San Francisco and Phoenix and are testing routes in Austin and Atlanta. They are currently completing 50,000 paid trips/week. And to their credit Waymo is partnering with many different communities as they ramp up their robo-taxi service.
Here is an impressive demo of Waymo Driverless Taxi (San Francisco) User Interface Tour & Power User Tips:
Telsa FSD (Full Self Driving) has also progressed to an impressive level. Here is a recent time lapse video of a very challenging drive in San Francisco from Golden Gate Park to Fort Point with no driver interventions:
Motional has robotaxis in Las Vegas and is delivering food in Santa Monica. May Mobility is operating in Minnesota and Michigan. Nuro and Clevon are delivering autonomously. Zoox and Beep have autonomous shuttles.
These are just a few of the companies that will revolutionize transit over the next 15 years.
It would be an unmitigated disaster for Nashville taxpayers to spend billions on absurdly outdated, slow, crime plagued, fixed route buses and still be left behind as transit is completely transformed by these new technologies.
6 - The Mayor's Plan is a classic Bait and Switch. He is selling Nashvillians a small first step but his ultimate goal has always been a much larger and more expansive...and expensive...vision of regional transit and VERY high density housing.
Mayor Freddie O'Connell was ALL IN on Megan Barry's failed transit mega-expensive light rail plan in 2018 (see video from 2018) and he has never lost his enthusiasm for a much larger vision. The Mayor has said many times he still sees a future with regional light rail.
The Mayor and his supporters also see this plan as a first step to a Nashville with VERY HIGH density neighborhoods, more NEST like zoning, and a way to get people out of their cars. The "dedicated funding source" will allow Freddie and his allies to get billions in Federal dollars for their grand vision.
Unfortunately, when those federal dollars run out (causing financial disasters in many cities when they fall off a "fiscal cliff") Nashville taxpayers will be left with huge property tax increases to make up for the deficits.