The Sudden Sahel Situation

The Sahel is a loose term, referring to a region of Africa nestled between the Sahara desert and the center of the continent. While east of of the Sahel, Mali is at the center of the Islamic extremist resurgency (Schlein) 

The US and other superpowers have spent billions of dollars on the development of high-tech stealth jets which have been deployed in conflicts around the world. A conflict in the Sahel, however, has fallen under the radar despite no stealth jets ever being used. Such an absence depicts a greater story about the type of conflict that has emerged. France has been fighting Islamic terrorists in the region for over a decade. Most of them have resorted to low-tech guerilla warfare, terrorizing villages at random, and inflicting rapid damage. Their actions in Mali provoked France’s initial intervention and over half of their troops were stationed there. However, the French have found it difficult for its forces to effectively curtail the progress of these terrorist organizations, making them unpopular both in Mali and back home. Some would go as far as to say that the military operation made pathetically little headway in Mali relative to their $1 billion annual budget (Irish and Diallo). As a result of mounting disapproval and the deteriorating relations with Mali’s new government, France made the surprising announcement that it would be withdrawing its forces from the country, plunging the region into uncertainty. While experts disagree about the extent of the damage, one thing is for certain, it will make counterterrorism efforts even more difficult. For one, Mali is severely underprepared to deal with the Jahidist groups on their own (Shurkin et al). Therefore, it’s not unreasonable to assume that Mali could evolve into a home base for organizations such as Boko Haram, giving them extra security from the efforts of neighboring countries. This would likely result in increased confrontations with extremists in neighboring countries such as Ghana, Senegal, Ivory Coast, and more. Although France has promised to beef up their operations in those “cooperating nations”, it may not be enough to provide full security (BBC). Thus, it’s fair to expect further destabilization of the region. Some would argue that the spread of the terrorism movement was inevitable and that it’s ultimately up to the local governments to fix their problem. French President Macron seems to agree. With his elections coming up, he’s in no mood to tarnish his reputation (Onishi). Irrespective of who becomes France’s next president, the Sahel’s historical and economic value to France means that this is not simply a problem pour un autre jour. 

Works Cited:

Schlein, Lisa. “Internal Displacement in the Sahel Tops 2 Million as Armed Conflict Intensifies.” VOA, 23 Jan. 2021, https://www.voanews.com/a/africa_internal-displacement-sahel-tops-2-million-armed-conflict-intensifies/6201123.html.

Irish, John, and Tiemoko Diallo. “French Military to Quit Mali in Possible Boost to Jihadists.” Reuters, Thomson Reuters, 17 Feb. 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/france-partners-begin-mali-military-withdrawal-statement-2022-02-17/. 

Shurkin , Michael, et al. “Mali’s next Battle.” Rand, Rand Corporation , 2017, https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR1200/RR1241/RAND_RR1241.pdf. 

“Why Are French Troops Leaving Mali, and What Will It Mean for the Region?” BBC News, BBC, 17 Feb. 2022, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-60419799. 

Onishi, Norimitsu, et al. “France Announces Troop Withdrawal from Mali after 9-Year Campaign.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 17 Feb. 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/17/world/africa/mali-france-withdrawal.html.