What's Next for Brazil's Democracy

On December 9th 2022, Brazil— the favorite for the World Cup— crashed out of the tournament on penalties to Croatia, drawing shock and criticism from all around the world. Almost exactly a month later, the country found itself in the headlines once again, for all the wrong reasons. 

On January 8th, supporters of Jair Bolsonaro, the far right former president of Brazil who lost the election to Lula, came out in the thousands to storm the Presidential Palace, Supreme Court, and Congress. The violent chaos that ensued– ransacked buildings, smashed windows, destroyed furniture, clashes with the police, and hundreds of arrests– was eventually controlled by the police, but the damage to Brazil’s democracy had already been inflicted.

The unfortunate reality is that this wasn’t much of a surprise for many Brazilians who had seen the ominous signs brewing during the past years of Bolsonaro’s presidency. The former president claimed even before the elections that the system was susceptible to fraud and the only options in this election were his death, arrest, or victory. Bolsonaro’s ability to galvanize the far right in Brazil meant that there was a significant portion of voters who had bought into these ideas and claims, and the country was as divided as ever. It was no shock therefore, that after Bolsonaro lost the runoff election to Lula last October and refused to concede, many were convinced that there was widespread fraud and Lula had stolen the election, despite the lack of credible evidence suggesting such an occurrence. The Economist reports that in “an online poll conducted by Atlas Intelligence almost 40% of respondents said they believed Mr Bolsonaro had won the election… And a terrifying 37% said they would support a military coup to overturn Lula’s electoral victory” (Economist). This demand to have their country back and Bolsanaro be reinstated as their leader culminated into the gatherings and demonstrations of January 8th, that eventually turned into the violent invasions that they were. 

As the dust settles on the insurrection, Lula now faces the challenge of beginning the process of repairing a fractured democracy. First on his agenda will be launching a series of investigations into how the insurrection was planned and executed, as well as arresting those who were involved. There will likely be scrutiny of the armed forces as well, who have been accused of conspiring on the side of the Bolsonaristas. Bolsonaro had developed a great reputation among Brazil’s military and police forces as his policies favored them and he was a former army captain. The fact that a vast majority of police officers were loyal to Bolsonaro was made apparent by their actions– or lack thereof– until it was too late. As elaborated upon by the Economist, “Despite days of warnings that bolsonaristas were plotting something, a security plan was apparently cast aside by Brasília’s governor at the last minute. Few roads were blocked. No reinforcements were sent to the government buildings” (Economist). Lula can’t change the sentiment of the entire armed forces overnight, but he must ensure that those who put politics first and nation second are rooted out. 

In this process of handing out punishments, however, Lula must make sure to not cast away his political opponents or conservative voters in general. He needs to begin uniting citizens to alleviate the problems of such polarization and figure out a way to begin cooperating with lawmakers from the other side in a Congress where his party lacks a majority. Lula can only hope that he is successful in doing so, can start working on his actual agenda– economic reform, heavy social spending for welfare programs, and conservation of the Amazon among many others– and get all Brazilians pulling in the same direction once again. 

As for the rest of the world, there is also plenty to take away. First, the parallels to the Jan 6th insurrection in the US are apparent for all to see and far right groups in the two countries even share many similar beliefs and ideologies. During and after the Cold War, the US has always been a prominent exporter of Democratic values, but now it must avoid becoming an exporter of far right terrorism. The increasing frequency of such activity should come as a warning sign as there are countless examples.

Brazil’s soccer federation will begin a long process of soul-searching and rebuilding in the aftermath of their world cup debacle. Lula and other world leaders must do the same if they are to revitalize democracy in Brazil and around the globe. 

Sources:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/paranoia-reigns-in-brazil-as-lula-leads-and-fears-grow-of-a-bolsonaro-coup-zsddd7p6x

https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2023/01/12/a-copycat-insurrection-in-brazil-and-its-troubling-aftermath

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/30/brazil-runoff-bolsonaro-lula-00064127

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/08/world/americas/brazil-election-protests-bolsonaro.html